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bagleytravis68

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  • Is It Time To Buy Shares Of Whole Foods Market? [View article]
    Have to agree with joe. The number of new stores opening and 0 debt to me looks like a major win in the long run. A PE of 25 is high, but I feel like WFM is still new enough to warrant it. Any company with 0 debt and a good plan is worth a look. Going to buy and hold for the long run. We'll see after the earnings if we have a nice buying opportunity.
    Jul 29 07:47 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Javelin's Downgrade: Sell The News Or Seize The Opportunity? [View article]
    How is the positioning for a slowly rising rate environment? Just wondering if we should expect some massive price swings.
    Jul 14 11:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods, Wal-Mart And The Coming Commoditization Of Organic Grocers [View article]
    Thank you for shedding some light on this situation. People are panicking because somehow Walmart is going to kill WFM because they are carrying organics. Yeah right. The simple fact is people who shop at Walmart for their groceries will not shop at Whole Foods and people who shop at Whole Foods will not shop at Walmart. You have a huge difference in quality, experience, and cleanliness.

    For the sake of argument let's consider another grocer, Harris Teeter which is pretty much only located in North and South Carolina. Their prices are way way higher than their competitors, Food Lion, Aldi, Publix, etc. Yet their stores are still packed and people are still buying up the overpriced foods they provide because Harris Teeter is simply a better shopping experience. Super clean, super friendly, super helpful people and they have basically anything you need.

    Long term I am not worried about Whole Foods. I'll be buying on any dips and slowing accumulating shares.
    Jul 14 11:42 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Stay Away From Whole Foods Market [View article]
    I keep seeing these avoid WFM at all costs articles and while the PE is high and growth has slowed there is still a major difference between WFM and stores like Walmart. Sorry to burst the bubble here, but the majority of people who shop at WFM won't go to Walmart. Why? About 3/4 Walmart stores I go into are dirty. The food is questionable. Organic or not it just doesn't look good.

    I look at WFM like I look at Target vs Walmart. Why do people shop at Target and not always Walmart? Well at least where I am Target is cleaner, tends to have more helpful employees, their products are better displayed, organization is much better. I don't hate Walmart. But I feel like the threats from Walmart and other stores who are trying to steal Whole Foods glory really aren't that huge of a threat.

    If you ever have shopped at Whole Foods before you go there for the experience and the near promise that they are going to have quality of just about everything. Walmart...not so much. You can't find a lot and some of the things you do find you really have to wonder what it has come in contact with.

    After a 35% drop I really think the big danger is past. Do I expect to make big money fast? No, but I think WFM has a lot of room to grow and I believe more bang for my buck than grocers like KR.
    Jul 14 11:26 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Stands Out With Significant Price Appreciation Potential And Attractive Dividend Yield [View article]
    What makes you think they will have an ADDITIONAL dividend? The last time I checked ARR was struggling to make the .05 cent div.
    Jul 14 09:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Stands Out With Significant Price Appreciation Potential And Attractive Dividend Yield [View article]
    Phattboy43, I never said that AGNC nor NLY were shining gems. I own AGNC as well and yes I also was killed when AGNC went down the tubes. The difference being is that when mReits dropped like rocks Kain actually discussed the strategy going forward and AGNC repositioned the portfolio to prepare for rising rates and didn't completely overshoot it. If you take a look back after the big drop when most mReits were seeing green ARR was still seeing red. I get what you are saying but at one point ARR had dropped near 50% and AGNC dropped somewhere near 40%. No not a shining gem, but 10% less than ARR.

    I think currently ARR is safe to hold onto and I am going to ride it out for awhile and recoup some of my unrealized loss. For the most part if you were in mReits you got screwed unless you sold out at the very start of the slide.

    I don't think Kain is the best in the business in anyway. I haven't held AGNC though enough "positive" motion to be convinced of that. All I know is the game of the time was who could drop the least and AGNC outdid ARR.

    As for management I see it as the "giving a drunk a drink effect". Bimini went straight into the ground so to me management has a significant black mark on their record. What is to say they won't just do it again? They have not proven that they are competent in running an mReit nor that they care at all about shareholders.

    If I didn't already own ARR I wouldn't buy it now because I don't like the company and I don't know if long term holding ARR is really going to be profitable. Regardless I am keeping mReits a small % of my portfolio and overtime we will see how things pan out.
    Jul 14 09:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • ARMOUR Stands Out With Significant Price Appreciation Potential And Attractive Dividend Yield [View article]
    Any investors who have been following $ARR know that there are plenty of reasons $ARR is at a discount to book. To highlight, $ARR was one of the worst performers during the mReit slide. Post slide $ARR also was still one of the worst performers as their rebalancing went from one extreme to another and then interest rates didn't go up. Ultimately I and many investors question the competence of management. After the stock tanked they wanted to increase compensation by a huge amount (raise for poor performance?) and the price/dividend has been all over the place. If you look at the guys running this ship you will see that another mReit run by them went down the toilet and people are scared they will do the same with ARMOUR.

    Basically if you look at $NLY or $AGNC you will see management that keeps investors clued in and is much more transparent than $ARR. $ARR is like a black box.

    I am still holding my shares since I am hoping for some price appreciation and that the dividends will eventually make up for all the red I have. You buy $ARR if you are willing to risk losing your pants, but you might also be rewarded. Personally I would feel much safer with a company that at least appears to care about shareholders.
    Jul 11 11:06 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whole Foods Is Not A Buy Here [View article]
    I think something that is often swept under the rug is that WFM is an experience unlike many other stores. Perhaps the food is more expensive and current growth isn't fantastic, but the stores have a way of drawing people in and keeping them in there. I know the last time I went to a whole foods I spend a few hours there shopping and sat down for a surprising restaurant quality meal. I think WFM has a lot room to grow. Seems to me like people got a little too excited driving the multiple way to high, but I think 25x isn't absurd for the forward thinking that is going on there.

    You can go to a Kroger, Giant Eagle, Harris Teeter, Publix, etc. and really they are all very similar. If a Kroger and Publix were right next to each other I would always go to whatever store had better prices. With Whole Foods I feel like there is more reason to set foot in that store than just the groceries.
    Jul 10 09:58 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft: How Much Could The Next Dividend Hike Be? [View article]
    Perfectly content with anything close to 10%.
    Jun 5 10:42 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Reasons Why Microsoft Needs To Buy SAP Right Now [View article]
    I work in the ERP industry especially on Dynamics and have been working with MSFT closely on enhancing AX. I highly doubt this would ever happen. While AX is currently better suited for mid cap companies I think what we will see is MSFT expanding AX at a faster and faster pace. I wouldn't make any sense for them to snap up SAP if they can continue to expand upon AX with essentially limitless cash. I have seen AX changing over the years and I can say that soon it will be a force to really be reckoned with. JMHO.
    May 21 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential: Long Or Short? [View article]
    I'm there with you Bruce. I can't bring myself to sell at this kind of loss when I can wait and hope the share price will recover. Hopefully sitting and collecting the dividend is a good strategy to wait out the economy. If anything I don't want to lock in near 30% losses. Made some real bad choices getting into a few mReits after the first depression in mReits prices. I thought I was being smart getting in after 10 and 15 % drops. Wow was I wrong. Lesson learned.
    May 14 10:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 1 [View article]
    I have been considering MAIN for a while. It does seem like a safer route.
    May 13 12:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Armour Residential: Long Or Short? [View article]
    I have been in ARR for a while now. While JMI has done better I feel like management is going to disappoint again and again. No matter what they do they continue to lag and make the wrong decisions. I am hesitant to sell because I feel like I might be jumping ship a bit too soon, but I am tired of seeing the red and more red.
    May 13 12:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 1 [View article]
    I have been holding my ARR and JMI for quite a while now. I was hoping with time things would get better, but from what I have seen the management is the worst of the bunch. I would feel better just to be in a company that is more transparent and actually talks to share holders. Going to take a pretty big loss to sell, but I think in the long run PSEC will make up the difference.
    May 13 12:09 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prospect Capital: What Comes Next? Part 1 [View article]
    Who views this as a good buying opportunity? I would like to have more, but I am planning to sell some other crappy mREITs I have to buy.
    May 13 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
74 Comments
134 Likes