sack_ed's  Instablog

I don't intend to post regularly - only as events warrant. I am in the long-term camp, so only fundamental material events warrant an update.

FEEC was recently diluted 36% to raise ~$32.5m. Ouch! - but maybe not. It turns out a $70m micro cap warrants investment by the likes of a Soros related fund and Blackrock's Dan Rice - who Barron's have called an "Energy-Stock Star"

Since the raise the stock has moved from the recent low of $.30 to the mid $.40's for a 50% bump.

Additionally, a Netherland Sewell @& Associates reserves report is expected to be published in October. Finally posting SEC reserves should provide another push in the right direction.

My estimate is a likely triple from here within 12 months, and potentially more.









Disclosure: Long FEEC

The case for Far East Energy:


BACKGROUND

Far East Energy (FEEC) began operations in China in 2003 with the Enhong-Laochang coalbed methane (CBM) blocks when their first well was spudded. The block, at just over 1000 square km (265,000 acres), is estimated to have 5.3 TCF gas in place. The PSC is split 60% FEEC and 40% CUCBM (China United Coalbed Methane Co).

In 2003, FEEC also obtained an interest in two blocks from Conoco Phillips (CoP) for the Shouyang and Qinnan PSC's. FEEC has a 66.5% interest (CoP has a 5% overriding royalty interest), and CUCBM a 30% stake. These two blocks have gas in place estimates of 18-25 TCF over 1,057,638 acres.

See the corporate website for more history.

FAST FORWARD TO TODAY

To date, 30 PSC's have been awarded to foreign companies in China. Of these, FEEC has 3, or 10%. Not bad for a $65m company.

Enhong-Laochang (often called "Yunnan") -

FEEC met its PSC exploration requirements through to 2009, however lack of access to a market means the project is basically on hold pending a forward plan.

Qinnan -

FEEC met all PSC exploration requirements to 2009. As funds were tight, FEEC signed a farmout agreement for 75% of their interest to Arrow Energy. Also in 2009, the Chinese partner share of the block was transferred from CUCBM to Petrochina. Funnily enough, in 2010, Petrochina (together with Shell) purchased Arrow Energy. However - the exploration agreement and the farmout approval have yet to be received. Originally this was based on Petrochina not having approval to operate with foreign partners. Currently the status of this is unknown. FEEC management states they are working with Petrochina and Arrow (now Dart) and hope an agreement can be reached. They also noted they are in discussions with other majors regarding possibilities for Qinnan.

Shouyang -
FEEC management has identified Shouyang as their "crown jewel". Shouyang is "special" because it is the first CBM field in China to have high permeability (~100md) together with a high gas content. FEEC management has focused the majority of to attention bringing the Shouyang block to Development.

Shouyang is currently producing commercial volumes of gas (over 750 mcf per day). FEEC (via CUCBM) has signed a take-or-pay gas sales agreement for $6.55/mcf for 10.5 MMCF/day. Volumes above this to be negotiated in a separate contract. FEEC forward plan is to develop the block drilling 50-60 wells annually.

THE VALUE PROPOSITION:

Shouyang:

4.8 TCF CoP gas in place estimate (less than 45% of the block evaluated)
Additionally, #9 coal seam not included in above
70/30 FEEC/CUCBM split
5% ORRI to CoP (from FEEC share)
58% Recovery estimate
PSC requirements met
No reserves booked (2H 2010 expected)
Gas gathering system under construction from pilot area
Multiple parameter wells in place for "cookie-cutter" expansion

Qinnan:

11.1 TCF CoP gas in place estimate
70/30 FEEC/CUCBM(CNPC) split / Arrow takes 75% of FEEC share
50% Recovery estimate
PSC requirements met, PSC out of date & needs renewal
Assume Arrow JV (or similar) goes through
No reserves booked, no timeline

Yunnan:

2.7 TCF CoP gas in place estimate
60/40 FEEC/CUCBM split
No activity, no wells, no timeline

Buyout valuation estimates given by FEEC management
1P Reserves $1.5 B per TCF
2P reserves $1.0 B per TCF
3P reserves $0.5 B per TCF

FEEC share in Shouyang:
4.8 * .58 * .70 = 1.95 TCF (again does not include balance of block or #9 seam)
FEEC share in Qinnan:
11.1 * .5 * .70 = 3.9 * .25 = .98 TCF
 

According to Yahoo! Finance, FEEC has:

Shares Outstanding:	185.59M
Float:	166.70M

It is presumed FEEC will have a cash raise late in 2010 - this would bring the outstanding shares to roughly 200m


CONCLUSION:

Due to the high level of activity in Shouyang, value area at ½ of "3P" value estimate ($.25B/TCF) gives us 1.95 TCF * .25 = $480 million

Due to some activity in Qinnan, value area at ¼ of "3P" estimate = .98 * .12 = $118million

Total estimate: $598 million / 200m fully diluted shares = $2.99/share

plus a 10% premium

10 “parameter areas” which will hold ~25 wells ea x 466 MMcf/well 3P = 116.5 bcf 3P

1P = $1.5B * .14 = $210m

3P = $.5B * .1165 = $60m

“area value” - 1.75 TCF * $250m = $437m

Same as previous for Qinnan & Yunnan - $118m

Revenue value 25 wells at 100mcf/day @ $4.50/mcf earned @ 10x earnings- $15m

Total = $840m / 200m fully diluted shares = $$4.20/share post reserves & production startup, pre-development

Plus a 10% premium = $4.62 per share

caveat emptor,
sack_ed


Disclosure: long FEEC

After taking a severe beating in 2008 as a mutual fund investor, decided to strike out on my own rather than trust a financial advisor whose advice cost 50% of my holdings. Invest only where I understand the business model. Primarily interested in oil & gas plays.

My goals:

- Find a microcap oil and gas play with the following attributes every two years:
          - already has major, recognizable backing (bank, fund, JV partner, etc)
          - at least 10x potential within five years
          - with trustworthy management

- Invest in 10 (or less) opportunities at any given time, taking "big swings" at each opportunity.
- Buy and hold through development strategy.
- Willing to consider other growth areas outside oil & gas (China, other developing markets) when it makes sense to me from a fundamental standpoint.
- Utilise 50% trailing stops on holdings - however fundamentals must be considered prior to dumping shares into weakness.

To date:
- Addax -
bought out by Sinopec for ~40% gain

- Far East Energy (FEEC.OB) -
1st shares 2Q 2008. Major purchases through Nov-Dec 2008. Holding until company is bought out or review in 2012. ~ 1m shares

- Hyperdynamics (HDY) -
1st shares 2Q 2010. No major purchases expected until early 4Q 2010.


Disclosure: Long FEEC.OB, Long HDY