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mirkotoscano

mirkotoscano
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  • Goldzilla [View article]
    I see gold like an insurance: you add a % of gold in your portfolio (no more than 10% in my personal view) and with the other 90% you build an asset allocation according your target and risk aversion including stocks, bonds and alternative assets.
    And at the end, you (I) hope to lose money with gold because probably other assets will more than compensate for the gold drop.
    If my gold portfolio will be a lot lucrative in the next years...I'd be more worried because probably we would be in a worst world with a big financial crisis (bigger than 2008).
    imo of course
    Nov 20, 2014. 09:43 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • U.S. Stock Market Update [View article]
    nice article.
    I also think that a correction is coming, even if with all this liquidity around probably will be shallow, at least in the first leg.

    I agree that if there is soon, it will be healthy for the market because sentiment is becoming extreme.

    Maybe the true moment for the bull market will be in Autumn when tapering ends and Fed must decide if to do the next move (if inflation will be higher and unemployment lower).
    Jul 12, 2014. 01:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy 'Value ETFs' Here, Buy 'Growth ETFs' Over There [View article]
    Hi Gary, what do you think about the chance the yields will begin to rise only once tapering is over (if Fed will be able to finish it...)?
    Nice article like usual, you always have my view :)
    Mirko
    May 31, 2014. 12:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Against The Herd: Lower Rates Rather Than Higher Rates In 2014 [View article]
    Gary you're right saying that worldwide consensus on bond is quite bearish and almost nobody is forecasting higher yields in 2014. I was thinking about the scenario you described when making 2014 outlook.

    On the other side, there's also another scenario that is not consensus: Fed's hike for the end of this year or investor pricing this possibility.

    At the moment investors believe the Fed won't raise rates before middle 2015 because Yellen is on the dowish side.
    If in the course of year world growth will be stronger than expected (not in US but maybe Europe or in Emerging Markets) or financial assets will rise inducing Fed to fear an asset bubble, they could accelerate tapering and market could start pricing an hike for the end of this year. In this cause another time would be bad for risky asset (maybe not at the beginning), but bad for bonds as well.

    It's too early to know what's going to happen. In my opinion consensus will hold until April/May and then it will start to shape the end of year view.
    Like usual, whatever scenario one paints, always better to have stop losses to protect from the real world.
    Have a nice day

    In both scenario I described (your and Fed's hike) the view on risky asset is negative. On the other side, situation will change widely for bond prices
    Jan 19, 2014. 04:05 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3 New Year's Resolutions An ETF Investor Can Keep [View article]
    Nice article, like usual.
    Jan 7, 2014. 12:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fixed Income Momentum - July 2013 [View article]
    a nice article. Momentum strategies this month confirms my idea
    Jul 7, 2013. 05:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 'Tapering Talk' Is Cheap - Buy Rate-Sensitive ETFs On Significant Dips [View article]
    I agree with your comment.
    I monitor this Etfs:
    SDIV, CVY for equity purchase
    INKM that is an hybrid.

    As bond Etf i like the pimco ones (BONDand HYS) and BKLN.
    On those with longest duration such as emb, vclt, hyg, jnk, angl, I'd prefer to wait for lower prices.

    What about the RWX ? is correcting fast, I'd like to add it around 41 on the ma200. Has a quite good dividend yield
    May 25, 2013. 06:26 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May Or Not? [View instapost]
    We had an attempt of rebound this week, but so far no valid follow through day materialized...
    therefore...I am still in defensive model.
    Apr 28, 2013. 05:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Sell Off - Distribution Days On Stock Indexes [View instapost]
    This week we had a follow through day.
    Altough there are some negative divergences on breadth indicators, market is again strong and could continue to rise untile next FOMC meeting
    Mar 10, 2013. 04:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Investing In 2013: Remember 1977 [View article]
    I appreciated this article. Very interesting one.
    Mar 3, 2013. 03:33 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why An Upcoming Pullback Could Whack Financial ETFs [View article]
    I think a discussion about the exit plan could be an interesting topic for next author's post.
    I think author didn't go into details because the different methods are based on each investor risk preferences.
    What is good for one (buying put for example, but is costly) could no be attractive for others (one could prefer not buy any insurance and so saving cost, and cut position at some price level).
    Personally I use combinations of put / put spreads /short futures according beta and plain stop losses according my view and the cost of insurance each time.

    Nice article by the way. Gary, I like SDIV if a retracement happens:
    Feb 23, 2013. 02:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold- New Buy Signal; Market Not Bad As It Seems [View instapost]
    Gold reacted well last Monday and the same did stocks on positive fiscal cliff expectation.
    I'll increase slightly stock exposure, hedging with put
    Jan 1, 2013. 01:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Alert Gold - Close To Buy Signal On Stock Market [View instapost]
    Good move this gold! ;)
    Dec 20, 2012. 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Going On - Wait And Study [View instapost]
    Just few hours after I wrote the comment....markets have rebounded thanks to Obama's words.
    when they show this strength it usually is a good signal...
    maybe I was wrong and another bull leg is starting now
    Nov 29, 2012. 09:32 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Correction Going On - Wait And Study [View instapost]
    Only NDx had a FTD and wasn't impressive as volume.
    I think market can have another leg down.
    I am ready to change opinion but I won't be surprised if S&P will try to break 1350 again.
    Nov 28, 2012. 10:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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