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CFA member. In this blog I put my thoughts. Work in an Italian bank in a strategist position (forex and commodities), but my true passion is the stock market.
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Mirko Toscano - market view and trading signals
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  • Correction Time

    I've not been writing since few weeks because I was quite busy in the weekends. This one will be a short post as well.

    Market is in a correction mode, after many distributions days happened in last few weeks. Nasdaq was the index with most selling pressure, entered in a correction move after dropped below 2750.

    (click to enlarge)Nasdaq 100

    The thing I don' t like at the moment is that, when I search for leader growth stocks, I see some distribution patterns.

    It sounds like a deeper correction could arrive in the next 1-2weeks. I think it will be temporary because of "Bernanke put" on the market, ie the governor will announce new measures if markets drop heavily.

    So far this is what I see on several markets:

    -US indexes seems due to a short term correction

    -European indexes could do the same because of Spain bailout delay and Greece news.

    -Investors are continuing to buy European peripherical government bonds (Spain, Italy), corporate and emerging market bonds

    - Precious metals could consolidate/correct in the short term (buy on dip); oil could drop if US Administration releases strategic reserves to help Obama before of elections (buy a put on USO).

    -Treasuries could be interesting in the short term

    It seems like a short phase of "Risk off" is coming, but probably will be quite shallow because of huge liquidity in the market and very high level of cash held by funds.

    Like a fisher, I am patiently waiting the right moment trying to pick up a fish.

    I'm studying some stocks names, but don't like patterns associated at the moment.

    My target is to buy in the short term future gold/silver, European Etf dividend stocks and pick 2-3 stocks.

    At the moment I'm long corporate and emerging market bonds, i sold all precious and equity.

    Oct 13 5:45 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Citi- Selling Some Puts Hoping For Bernie's Rescue

    Here we go after Bernanke's speech that let clear one thing: QE is not an "if", the issue is only "when"

    And precious metals understood it, reacting very well

    Below a nice move for silver that makes me happy :)

    (click to enlarge)Silver

    The behavior of major US indexes were not clear for me this week. Take the S&P500 charts below. 2 weeks ago S&P500 made a new high but with a false break-out. When a "break &fail" occurs, usually it's a bad omen and index/stock can fall quite fast.

    (click to enlarge)SPX

    This didn't happen. It signals that investors are still uncertain. In theory if market holds this level for 1-2 weeks, this chart can also becomes quite bullish.

    And the rest of the world?

    (click to enlarge)EEM US

    Europe stocks are fine so far waiting ECB this week, but emerging markets look weak. They are continuing to lag the Us market.

    This is not a good news because it's difficult to imagine a big US market rally, with high volume participation, without signals from global growth in other markets.

    Of course the US rally could materialize, but it would be just a "QE effect". You can ride it, but it's good to know that.

    Finally, I opened a trade on Citigroup before Bernanke 's speech (you can see in my market talks), betting that financial sector will benefit by QE.

    (click to enlarge)Citigroup daily

    Basically I liked the daily chart: break above 29 after few days of tight consolidation. I sold a bunch of put @29 September at around 0.75. I hope they will expire worthless (or almost worthless). If Citi price will drop, I'll roll it betting /hoping that Bernanke put will push price up again at least once within end of 2012.

    Disclosure: I am long C, SLV, GLD.

    Tags: SPY, SLV, EEM, C
    Sep 03 3:41 AM | Link | 1 Comment
  • Rally With Low Volumes: Just A Summer Event Or Fake Rally?

    Low volumes for this August rally. Unfortunately I closed most positions because my trailing profit levels were touched after ECB meeting and imminent bad reaction from market.

    On Friday the market started to rise again and it's still doing that, with low volumes (better in last 2 days, but last Friday was option expiration day)

    How this rally will end?

    S&P500 is close to resistance with low volumes.

    (click to enlarge)S&P500

    Nasdaq 100 is high as well, even if volume pattern is better

    (click to enlarge)Nasdaq100

    Dow Jones is similar to S&P. Maybe volume are worse

    (click to enlarge)dow jones

    "king" Apple on the stars. new high but low volume as well

    (click to enlarge)Apple

    and QE3? silver thinks it will come (because is not dropping), but maybe not too soon.

    (click to enlarge)Silver

    Will this rally continue? I think we'll discover it soon. Let's see how market react this week after option expirations. the KEY date is Bernanke speech on Jackson Hole at the end of the month, that could be either a reversal day or the first day of a strong short term upleg of indexes.

    and Finally, (NYSE:DFS)... this was a nice call. How a pity I closed the spread :(

    (click to enlarge)Discovery Financial Services

    To finish, there was a sell signal on SPDR Healthcare (NYSEARCA:XLV). Demark 13-9 sell signal on weekly basis 2 weeks ago.

    Aug 19 1:36 AM | Link | Comment!
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