whidbey

Jobs Contraction a Serious Story

You might have added that nothing can slow the momentum of the jobs loss cycle. It will last at least 6 months and go higher for a while. The ECRI has recently let it be known that inflation is not accelerating in the USA and slowing most countries in the world. This is a correlation that one would expect; as employment falls inflation will fall and turn to disinflation, even with the government pump the money machine, I think it might be a net stand off. But if we reach 200K figures my models say inflation is dead for a long time, but housing keeps on crashing. This is all bad news and it will endure for some months. 2009 is gone economically, so watch out for the Fed to go soft headed and cut rates. They never stop.