whidbey

Comparing Value-at-Risk to Crash-and-Burn

We need to stop and think more clearly about what we propose to do to avoid repeating the mistakes of the past. I think you are in error.

Since this is not a physics problem, but a behavioral finance issue, it is not probable that the same mistakes will be committed again, but rather, some variation with sufficient change to rule out the lessons learned. Humans err not in patterns, but in knowing the facts and risks associated with an event. They "play hunches". The cost of knowing/learning about these changes is often not economic,
so we do not exhaust research on each variation of past errors.
In short learning concrete lessons is typically to misinform future decision making. I think you are wrong.