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This a volatile series YOY, but for 2008 this 38 reading is 80% of the 2008 average, and it is a year like 2001 when the PMI read 38 in July.
Nov 01 20:47 pm
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All Comments by whidbey »Chicago PMI: The Word Is 'Scary' [View article]
As a rule, this series takes 12 months to move very much after stimulus starts. God knows how we count stimulus starts in 2008. Things have been done differently and no comparison of 2008 with 2001 is reasonable.
This could be "the low" reading in the next 12 months, but it portends nothing much to look forward to for the next year by way of improvement, no matter what is done. 2009 seems a lost year for the economy, however necessary to basing a recovery.
Now is the time for shopping for US stocks since the "E" is going to fall significantly this next year. This might give some nice bargains, much better than today. Keep some powder dry??