whidbey

Think B.I.G. Market Outlook 2009 Survey

Any correlation between the parties surveyed and future events? Not much! The survey may show sentiment, but not much else since there is no foreseeing events a year ahead.

The sentiment aspect is interesting, it seems to suggest that polar opposites are higher than other polls I look at. The problems is that of the blind men and the elephant; each is responding to a general question based on limited experience with the subject matter.

2009 belongs to Congress and the Fed as they battle to show fiscal v. monetary policy is the answer. In the end I suspect that time will conquer all and we will as an economy become interested in other things, pursue them and slowly almost unknowingly start a recovery. In the meanwhile Congress will warm its hands over the bond fire of its vanities persuaded it has made a difference. Delusional but predictable.