whidbey

466 Comments

    • This Rally Is Over, and Here’s Why [view article]
      Good comment and your employment data from ISM is useful to anyone looking for the second leg down. What you did not say is that this leg usually is the more violent and protracted. In this leg unemployment leads to manufacturing lay offs and that further hurts P/E. The recession or worse is confirmed by Institute for Cycles Research indicators showing we have entered the recession area and will be moving out in a couple of months, if the government does not go of the cliff with programs to fix things. We need to let this one wash out the market excesses however much it hurts. With the election coming the prospects are not good. Sep 05 10:55 AM
    • Bill Gross' Bailout Call: Wise Man or Fool? [view article]
      Nothing new from Gross.Bryan always was a closet socialist, as are many of the well-off capitalists on Wall Street. They want their play pen cleaned up and the children sent out to play in the games they organize. It is all about pushing for control of the economy so that it works for his book. We have more, Hank and GS, not to mention the rest of the investment banks, are on the side of quick fix, even if it does not work. Gross as his breast in the wringer and in those circumstance one grabs at anything for help. Let him twist in the wind!!
      !       Sep 05 10:46 AM
    • Wells Fargo Sham Revealed [view article]
      I have some dealings with Wells Fargo which have lead me to feel that the game was getting harder to play. They forced an auction on a fleet of leased trucks rather than sell them reasonably to my clients as slightly less than residuals. The auction resulted in a loss of 25% over the offer price. That is called gambling and losing is it not? Yes something is wrong I agree. If you are right, it is more wrong than I sensed. Sep 04 06:47 PM
    • Agency Bond Market: Freddie Floats $3B in 2-Yr Notes [view article]
      Flash in the pot. The speculators may be floating a trade on the Gross hypothesis: The Treasury must move, otherwise the whole house comes down. I am not attracted, but I understand, after all they are risking a currency they have plenty (if not too much) of, unfortunately. Sep 04 06:37 PM
    • Bond Expert: Thursday Wrap [view article]
      The Pimco boys always talk their book, and we should not expect less. A father must always seek the best for his offspring. The difference is Bryan gets heard, we don't.

      What is note worthy is that curve is being reshaped to reflect the fear and loathing of a failing economy. Soon cash will be an acceptable investment, now that inflation has been done in exactly as Ben B promised.       Sep 04 06:06 PM
    • John Hussman: Economic Conditions and the Market [view article]
      This is fine example of double talk wrapped up obfuscation. Being both constructive and defensive is interesting, but hard to apply for anyone without a good sense of timing. We know there will be some real adjustments before the elections. Smart folks will stay in cash or ST bonds until it seems less volatile. AND, If you like expensive funds just buy his mutual funds. That seems to work this year. Sep 04 05:35 PM
    • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [view article]
      Will, Murdoch maybe, but someone ought to run the paper. Even its liberal bent is not consistent. One wonders if there is some kind of internal torment tearing the paper apart. The might be economies of scale to joint operations with the WSJ, but the WSJ has become its own version of death warmed over. The FT seems to be replacing the Journal on just plain old fashioned covered and commentary. Once the decline starts, it just cascades to hell. Sep 03 01:15 PM
    • S&P 500 Dividend Payers Underperform Non-Payers in August [view article]
      Growth stocks would still be in run-out from the growth expectations of traders, but in the longer run we know who wins this race, value. So why attempt to panic the value crowd by suggesting something is amiss? It does not behove you to engage in such things. Moreover the variables in the comparison will allow for just what you have shown to happen occasionally, If this become a trend we might get worried, but right now its is a value investors world and will become more so. Sep 03 01:10 PM
    • Real Interest Rates Are Actually High [view article]
      The post confirms what has been suspected for a long time, i.e. that deflation was the probable longer run result of the housing bust. The confusion has always been over the possible fiscal policy response to a massive slow down in the economy. The concern was the monetization of federal debt in the absence of tax collections. That is still a concern since as near as anyone can determine the Fed will fight deflation - from whatever source - like death. The Fed will lower rates again and the treasury will print a few bonds to sell. The real question is whether the government can avoid massive stimulus programs in the face a lagging consumer demand over say 24 months. I suspect there will be more stimulus spending in the next two years, particularly if employment slips further. Mike, while likely correct to this point in time, may not have exhausted all future possibilities. My work says the larger problem is deflation and the possible fiscal response. Neither eventuality is attractive, but I suspect the time preference has shifted out markedly in the minds of most financial analysts, and maybe consumers as well Sep 03 12:11 PM
    • Bond Expert: Wednesday Outlook [view article]
      The movement towards treasuries is increasing this am. It appears that the fall decline will be preceded by repricing of risk - again - since the world demand for GSE and even the more risky private equities/bonds is sated. That means the US financial markets are on their own until the election (which is a big factor according to our sources) or some action by Hank Paulson, who is a short timer. Sep 03 11:41 AM
    • A Perfect Storm: Retail Is a Buy [view article]
      Insanity is not catching I hope.

      What is it about bottoms and young men? They seem to always see them and go overboard. In this case: today's market is not a bottom, and you may have lost your mind if you like this bottom.

      Just a ladies view for what its worth.       Sep 02 05:21 PM
    • Worst of Credit Storms Is Over for U.S. Banks - Fitch [view article]
      Excuse me, but is this a report of Fitch's hopes are expectations? Poppycock is the only polite term for such airings. Z Sep 02 05:10 PM
    • Chesapeake Energy Called the Market's Bluff [view article]
      Is all of this bickering legal? I love CHK, but Audry stole our basketball team and I want to factor that in. Any ideas. I mean this board is a nut house so anything could happen. Zooey. Sep 02 05:02 PM
    • The Dynamics of Oil Prices [view article]
      It does not matter greatly what loosed the mornings selling spree. The OPEC monitors will notice the price drops and they will make adjustments, not necessarily official decreases in oil for sale, but decreases nonetheless. We are at or near an equilibrium point which will be artificially maintained by the Club. The random noise of traders attempting to play in the traffic will not be important until some of us notice that the supply of oil really is - long run - less than the demand for oil long run, then the scramble with be unsightly I fear. I am holding some longs based on that belief. Z Sep 02 04:51 PM
    • More on 'Buffett Pie' and Paying For Tax Cuts [view article]
      You are virtually alone in your concerns as far as I can tell. This is the problem, not the scenarios of the CBO. The "everything now is not enough" generations are here to stay simply because it is costing none of the debtor generations anything (except a little inflation) to over consume. The tax cuts of Bush are the least of the problem, it starts with a Congress which is for sale via the simple mechanism of bribing the electorate.

      You know, several philosophers starting with the Greeks pointed out that democracies would predictably always fail when the majority found out they could grant themselves things by taking from the minority of the polity. These would be majorities based on income levels, lower than average income earners can easily vote themselves the assets of the minority. If Pareto's 80/20 wealth distribution hypothesis holds 80% of the population will be interested in redistribution of wealth ( and income) and what is more, they will be able to effect the desired results. In short, all democracies are doomed from the very start and it is only a short time until they all fail. You have noticed something that is unpleasant to contemplate, but it is destiny.       Sep 02 04:37 PM
Loading...
Symbols:
Authors:
Quick Links:
Contribute an Article Become a Seeking Alpha Contributor

Transcripts

More Transcripts»