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whidbey

whidbey
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  • Fed Not Buying TIPS, But Sudden Interest In 5-Year [View article]
    No worry over TIPS, means no inflation expected, but maybe a run on short term bonds in fear of two things deflation, and maybe de-tapering? Anything to stimulate the economy?? Maybe. The Chair may have some poor news this next week.
    Apr 26 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats Vs. Select Dividend Index [View article]
    much appreciate your careful work. Thanks!
    Apr 24 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IndexIQ's New Small Cap Australia and Canada ETFs Highlight the Case for Investment [View article]
    thanks, making a list.
    Apr 21 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Workday [View article]
    Many stocks are not configured for further growth because they are working for market share. The market seems to live in the future and love of risk. Seems to be that the entire market in the USA disregards that successful firms have a balanced sheet that resembles the broad market. Where to now? It is likely the market corrects and over corrects and many weak firms are gone. No bargains in a failing market. Just stick to the conservative leaders selling consumer basics.

    Your work is worth more than most realize.
    Apr 16 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chanos Sotheby's Indicator Flashes A Warning [View article]
    Single variable analysis is interesting but as the author noted timing matters : the one percent income crowd (which may be really .001% of the population) requires that most of them act in a close linked period of time to avoid a miscue on the future of the S&P trend . But one thing for sure is that these elites are probably not mere crowd followers. We may also accept that Cause and Effect is possible, however the empirical data says that while such linkages between BID's performance and the S&P are improbable for a long time series such as was graphed by the author. So what is all the trending about? Probably an intervening variable like: art works are quickly seen to be "cooling" in the market. BID gives such advice to sellers. That does not mean it is not useful information. It merely means rich people are widely respected for insight and access and are quickly followed. So, the risk of S&P stocks is quickly accepted and the market declines. Frankly, this is only theory, but a very enjoyable little mystery. Thanks for your research, I go short in the morning I think.
    Apr 6 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    This is sort of amusing - forecasting in such a loose multivariate environment is not much value to anyone, but fun. A 3% GDP in the future portends nothing in particular in the current setting given the number of variables left unaccounted for in the work. Simple statistical analysis suggests that the problem of being on target with GDP is large just the opening set: (5 variables taken 5 ways = factorial 5, = 120) , and if on target, doubtful that it means anything in particular unless the variables are sectioned off and given an assigned value sequence, otherwise we learn little about forecast technique. Educated guesses usually leave out the model used and its goals, as in this instance. This is the way most of us think, but it is usually a waste of time and if correct an expression of pure luck. Sort of like the guy who does my weight at the circus, he is generally wrong, but he got my dollar to try and kept his $100 for being just close. This about where this author is with his forecast.
    Apr 5 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Debt Milestone [View article]
    Many large investors are heavily indebted to their brokers. The propensity to incur debt has risen greatly in just the last decade, but historically the current level is not unheard of. The cultural explanation might be that investors are merely following the lead of government at all levels and in all places in the world. The ethos is that debt incurred to stimulate economic growth is virtuous, even admirable. Once again the "we will grow our way out of debt" mantra is palpable. The only problem is "who buys", or do they just borrow?

    Watch carefully, this is the way the deflation takes root. Particularly keep an eye on Japan and the EU. Both traders are looking for a new two party trade pact where deflation is the common element .
    Apr 5 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China still a buy despite slowdown worry says Morgan Stanley [View news story]
    Based on the writer's personal conviction that they know something NOT known to others, poorly informed investors?? We are rubes but we know that in China facts count 90% and opinion less than 10%. No thanks and below the dignity of a major American bank to pimp for the PBOC.
    Mar 26 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Take Advantage Of Weyerhaeuser's Unsustainable Premiums [View article]
    Well presented and good design, but the problems in risk management if & when the housing market corrects (I think that is highly probable in2014) is likely beyond many investors to manage as a two legged trade. In a rising housing market this trade should work out, all else equal. The time span involved is a red flag in a market correction with possible reduced cash flows to the debtor (WY). WY has moved from a conservative traditional tree business to a financial play with a tax twist, the Fed, Bank lender policy and consumer liquidity sidesIt is not fun anymore.
    Mar 26 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Where Is Realty Income's Dividend Going Over The Next 5 Years? [View article]
    Interesting review. I am biased. I think this year and next will see the market correct rather hard followed by deflation and later inflation. I am holding asset CEFs/REITS that should hold value and maybe return a dividend during this set of events. O's debt seems to be productive as stated currently, but if it becomes the key stone of growth plans I will cut O since more capacity is not going to be needed over the next decade. Am I bearish? I think so.
    Mar 26 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best And Worst ETFs, Mutual Funds And Key Holdings: Mid Cap Blend Style [View article]
    Your Aspirations do not appear to match your performance for investors. In general, your caution would have kept investors out of the 2013 market's more active/rewarding stocks, etf and funds. Is the screening a little idealistic or rigorous for most firms? Maybe you should warn subscribers that you are using rating standards that are FASB standards which are meant to avoid and punish fraud (and support audit work in public firms) .... but not avoid market risks, or select the best stocks for current markets?? Could you be a little more forthcoming on the benefits of your services which are not investment oriented??
    Mar 24 10:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • One Emerging Market To Buy [View article]
    Look at Koreas trade partners. Somewhere in the analysis is China which has an important role in all of SE ASIA, and the global economy. The alliance of Korea with the trade centers of Asia is growing, particularly Hong Kong, but the prize is China. It is widely appreciated that Korea "out manages" more economies in the world than is currently acknowledged. China is in chaos thanks to its government. Korea has a freer government and superior educational system (and a less costly military) than China. This piece is worth thinking about carefully, the author makes an interesting case with one exception: what does the US currency do to the emerging markets, or secondary markets? The US Fed reserve is a loose cannon and it is damaging US investing worldwide. Wait and see where the FED is headed, assuming it knows. Thanks and well done.
    Mar 23 11:41 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Seeking Alpha Crowd Wisdom Predicts Future Stock Returns [View article]
    The research is almost too good to be true or should I say accurate. The Wisdom of Crowds has always been suspect as only another expression of the law of large numbers. Crashes in markets must be some kind of an exception. Panics are the nature of crowds (they stop thinking critically and just react?) What affects behavior the most: "considered opinion" v. panic? Differences between those who are invested and those who are not invested has been shown to influence the prevailing general opinion of an investment. Why? lethargy? transactional costs?

    Processing SA opinions is time consuming for investors. It is not best to stay invested in stock indexes showing strength (since the market rises about 70% of the time) and set stops at the RSI prevailing reading, or at some variance measure?

    One can strain his arm while patting one's back.

    I would tend to be cautious of this research.
    Mar 22 11:20 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Microsoft Just Killed Itself, Apple Wins Again [View article]
    Why have the MSFT folks kicked the XP customers in the teeth by not coping with the OS base they have left to dry in the wind?? The move is to Apple probably. MSFT seems to have never realized that the firm has been mismanaged for years and has very low goodwill left with its public or competitors. How long will it take customers to recognize MSFT be the Dead Man walking for this decade?
    Mar 21 11:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Greatest Danger For Stock Investors Today [View article]
    Of course anything is possible, but probabilities are more often built of the short or longer run "givens" in a market economy. For example, the debt levels and credit worthiness in the USA, and elsewhere, are binding constraints on future policy making. Today many are still counting on "growth" as the fix for returning the economy to desired parameters. Without a virtual reorganization of our government and society, it seems likely that the US has finished one era and about to start another that few citizens will recognize, or cope with very well. The events speculated upon are probably just the first step for this change.
    Mar 21 11:02 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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