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whidbey

whidbey
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  • Gold And The Euro: Just How Strong Is The Yellow Metal? [View article]
    PMs are ripe for a major move,...but which direction is the mystery.

    The move could release the pent up energy based on the mystery of where China is moving in its quest to put some life into its economy. That seems to depend on global action to resolve the options now beckoning in the EU, Japan, and Greece. China want exports, paid for in PM.
    Apr 20, 2015. 04:46 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious Metals: First Quarter Review And The Outlook For Q2 [View article]
    Try to be real.

    No market is more open or does more to control the global monetary policy of the governments. The fed worries that gold will show it is not reliable nor capable of avoiding playing politics.
    Apr 6, 2015. 11:45 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Soft Commodities: First Quarter Review And The Outlook For Q2 [View article]
    This looks like the new play worldwide. But one must learn a new set of rules since this play has its own history, seasons and it ranges to all who eat, feed animals or trade for a living. I particularly look the to metals to become a major play. Crude is another possibility, but not right away, so look for prospects to own later. This man's experience is particularly valuable. I get his news letter and hear him twice a week on the internet, TFNN.

    Great diversification.
    Apr 6, 2015. 10:37 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Extremes In Every Pendulum [View article]
    No one is ever " right" in any sense, when the problems are compounding from global sources. There is no known outcome. A problem with N degrees of freedom can not be solved on simple principals; they must be worked through slowly. The Fed will soon demonstrate its confusion about simple solutions. Hold on.
    Mar 16, 2015. 04:41 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Economy Recovers - GLD Comes Down [View article]
    Show us the recovery again. The more probable event we see is stage one of the collapse of the over indebted nation states. James above seems to know the problem.
    Feb 13, 2015. 01:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impost and Export prices decline in January [View news story]
    This suggests that while trade is required to pay debts for nation states, international trade does best at lower prices. This trend is just starting and will likely last several years. It is not just Greece but national debt the world around. Think EFA, VWO, EEM (INDIA, CH?)and maybe a few negative etfs for the markets like the USA.
    Feb 13, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • REIT Volatility Is A Big Fat Warning Sign [View article]
    If interest rates rise, more than REIT prices are affected.
    Yes, reit prices will fall a little but we have yet to see how higher rates move the consumer spending. The Fed must recall how consumer debt might impact sales of goods and services in 2015. The most recent national jobs data was largely cheered before read carefully. If Consumer spending slows in this fiscal with it will pressure the Fed to keep the economy growing. Elections demand that consumers see good days coming - so they will come. The affect of fed rate changes are never obvious and the income from reits are required to keep old ducks like me, sensitive to who gets elected president. Keep watching it is never this easy.
    Feb 10, 2015. 05:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed Not Buying TIPS, But Sudden Interest In 5-Year [View article]
    No worry over TIPS, means no inflation expected, but maybe a run on short term bonds in fear of two things deflation, and maybe de-tapering? Anything to stimulate the economy?? Maybe. The Chair may have some poor news this next week.
    Apr 26, 2014. 10:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Dividend Aristocrats Vs. Select Dividend Index [View article]
    much appreciate your careful work. Thanks!
    Apr 24, 2014. 01:34 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • IndexIQ's New Small Cap Australia and Canada ETFs Highlight the Case for Investment [View article]
    thanks, making a list.
    Apr 21, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Danger Zone: Workday [View article]
    Many stocks are not configured for further growth because they are working for market share. The market seems to live in the future and love of risk. Seems to be that the entire market in the USA disregards that successful firms have a balanced sheet that resembles the broad market. Where to now? It is likely the market corrects and over corrects and many weak firms are gone. No bargains in a failing market. Just stick to the conservative leaders selling consumer basics.

    Your work is worth more than most realize.
    Apr 16, 2014. 08:36 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Chanos Sotheby's Indicator Flashes A Warning [View article]
    Single variable analysis is interesting but as the author noted timing matters : the one percent income crowd (which may be really .001% of the population) requires that most of them act in a close linked period of time to avoid a miscue on the future of the S&P trend . But one thing for sure is that these elites are probably not mere crowd followers. We may also accept that Cause and Effect is possible, however the empirical data says that while such linkages between BID's performance and the S&P are improbable for a long time series such as was graphed by the author. So what is all the trending about? Probably an intervening variable like: art works are quickly seen to be "cooling" in the market. BID gives such advice to sellers. That does not mean it is not useful information. It merely means rich people are widely respected for insight and access and are quickly followed. So, the risk of S&P stocks is quickly accepted and the market declines. Frankly, this is only theory, but a very enjoyable little mystery. Thanks for your research, I go short in the morning I think.
    Apr 6, 2014. 08:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Economic Outlook For Rest Of 2014: Acceleration [View article]
    This is sort of amusing - forecasting in such a loose multivariate environment is not much value to anyone, but fun. A 3% GDP in the future portends nothing in particular in the current setting given the number of variables left unaccounted for in the work. Simple statistical analysis suggests that the problem of being on target with GDP is large just the opening set: (5 variables taken 5 ways = factorial 5, = 120) , and if on target, doubtful that it means anything in particular unless the variables are sectioned off and given an assigned value sequence, otherwise we learn little about forecast technique. Educated guesses usually leave out the model used and its goals, as in this instance. This is the way most of us think, but it is usually a waste of time and if correct an expression of pure luck. Sort of like the guy who does my weight at the circus, he is generally wrong, but he got my dollar to try and kept his $100 for being just close. This about where this author is with his forecast.
    Apr 5, 2014. 04:24 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another Debt Milestone [View article]
    Many large investors are heavily indebted to their brokers. The propensity to incur debt has risen greatly in just the last decade, but historically the current level is not unheard of. The cultural explanation might be that investors are merely following the lead of government at all levels and in all places in the world. The ethos is that debt incurred to stimulate economic growth is virtuous, even admirable. Once again the "we will grow our way out of debt" mantra is palpable. The only problem is "who buys", or do they just borrow?

    Watch carefully, this is the way the deflation takes root. Particularly keep an eye on Japan and the EU. Both traders are looking for a new two party trade pact where deflation is the common element .
    Apr 5, 2014. 02:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • China still a buy despite slowdown worry says Morgan Stanley [View news story]
    Based on the writer's personal conviction that they know something NOT known to others, poorly informed investors?? We are rubes but we know that in China facts count 90% and opinion less than 10%. No thanks and below the dignity of a major American bank to pimp for the PBOC.
    Mar 26, 2014. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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