whidbey

Five Charts to Rule Them All

"We identify changes in trends by looking for not only price action of a particular market or market sector, but also by corresponding changes in other markets."

You bet it is not a science, it isn't even supported by historical market prices movements. The five charts you selected are trend-less and you can stare at them until you are cross eyed, but there is little if any correlation obvious. I think your toy is busted, and you haven't caught on yet.

4 Reasons Investors Shouldn't Rely on Fixed Income ETFs

I run 30/70 bonds and have been able to average about 8% appreciation and earnings. Not great but easy and secure, I think so far anyway, I hope.


I use SHY, AGG,LQD and VFIIX for fixed income. Later when the inflationary spiral starts I will switch to TIP, but more likely ACITX which is diversified internationally but expense ratios are higher too.

Thanks I like this post very much.

V-Shaped Recovery? Try M-Shaped Meltdown

Long, short hedge?? You must think the readers of this board are a different crew than most suspect, as a rule not traders

In a melt down, which is possible at any time, one needs to be short with a portion of the portfolio with no hedges that a good stop or stop limit. The rest? Cash is the place until the wind stops blowing.

Some Graham and Dodd Type Thoughts on Stocks vs. Bonds

Will return-free risk is apt for Treasuries, but factually there is a place for fixed income, maybe IG bonds from blue chip corps. They are a good place to hold money today and during down markets they do appreciate mighty some times. Keep some at all times.

Rule I:a well diversified "allocation" between the growth sectors (with an eye to dividends) during rally is the key to wealth. Be in cash when the indexes move below the 200 day MA.

Rule II, selling a stock on over valuation is hard, but it is required. Heritage stocks don't exist.

Rule III Active management of ones portfolio is required.

Past Is No Prologue: Stocks vs. Bonds

This will surprise many, but the facts are there.

In finance classes the man from Wharton is pure writ, largely I guess because he is assumed to have a water tight case for stocks. Now I wonder about his research as a whole. On CNBC recently He was defensive when asked about his historical sources, but he did not budge on the conclusions.

Time for California Muni Bond Investors to Take a Stand

Yellowhoard is the man.

The pain in states is coming from all directions and they have no tools for coping. The dive is out of control. So round two is the failure of state economies. But wait! there is more, the commercial RE is in real trouble, the banks are cutting off credit cards to consumers and the green gets whacked hard.

Default or inflation is the choice and neither one works for the common man, but who cares for him anyway?

Swedroe: 'Buy and Hold' Not Dead but Rebalancing Necessary

A great man, but his methods are complex. Allocations at three levels sounds workable, but few have the data or insight to use his methods. I always wonder what would my wife do if faced with his methods: probably give up.

Given the risks today buy and hold is not attractive. Impractical advice.

Is It the Right Time to Short Treasury Bonds?

This is interesting, but hardly conclusive. The power of the Fed to buy the long end of the curve down (and push prices up) is still exceptionally great. I look for USB to rise to 145 before it falls any. For that reason you must expect the bonds you have listed to rise in price and fall in yields for the next 6 months approximately. Your inverse SPX observation is helpful and true, but the market will make a new run soon (after to little correction) to about 900 SPX (After that 4-6 months rally), I suspect something dreadful will happen, but that is another story. One travesty at a time.

Obama Honeymoon Likely To Be Cut Short By Bond Market

"We are moving from a period of excess global savings to a period of shortage (not just the economic cycle, the demographic surge in retirees in Japan and Europe, and soon in the US, means investments are being drawn down rather than accumulated)"

Will ,maybe if interest rates rise sufficiently new behaviors can be learned. With sufficiently high interest rates even the young can learn to save money, of course, they will not want to be taxed on their interest or they will just consume the surplus, or hide it, or maybe not work (back bending demand curve?). It is a serious issue for the new President to ponder as he plans higher taxes, more domestic spending and international sharing of the wealth.

Sleeping with Short Bond ETFs

Why not money markets? Most of the funds you mention are not performing well, their yields notwithstanding. Just sitting in cash has not cost me money in my personal account and I can show you client accounts that have been badly hurt in IG, agency, treasury offerings. Even my GNMA accounts have been equal to or less than say, VG Prime Money Markets.

Bailout Cost, per Taxpayer, by Income

I think that in general the post raises the issue of wealth effects, and distributional effects. I think there will be a net reduction in wealth based on wealth held and the lower income will be more affected. The distributional effects are more evenly applied as all will benefit from some sort of a recovery. But what has not been accounted for is the lack of justice in this mess which will hurt all lower income people. This is a time of real danger since the drive will be to compensate and prevent - more safety netting to imperil progress in restoring the economy. It comes back more slowly and unevenly each time.

Defining a Set of Core Asset Classes

Dear 75 and retired. Being in bonds in a mutual fund is not the same as owning the bond itself where the risk is the return of capital and realization of the yield. At your age I would prefer to see you in bonds not funds which removes the interest rate/yield risk and assures your money is returned.


On Aug 18 09:20 AM chick wrote:

> Hi Geoff,
>
> I have mostly managed mutual funds with managers I find are some
> of the best, Evillard, Leuthold, Romick, McGregor, Rudolph-Riad Younes,
> Royce, Cuggino. I don't own any bonds or bond funds except those
> in the funds I own. Can those bonds serve as my allocation to bonds?
> If I have 40-50% bonds from those mutual funds, can they be considered
> my bond allocation? I am 75 and only recently retired.

Bond Expert: Monday Wrap

you dress up simple fear in very swanky motives:" hoping for a rate cut in the future?" Do they really invest on a hope such as that. I read your opinions and I appreciate the attempt to personify the bond buyers as real, living, breathing beings. They are not. In another life they would be bottom eaters or body snatchers like Pimco' undertakers who sort thru the dead (mortgages) to see what might be salvaged. Another's need to borrow becomes an opportunity for the scroungers. thanks for trying.

Indexing Our Global Market Portfolio

Not well presented for the user. See fundadvice.com for a vastly more helpful documentation, greater choices and lowest costs. And the portfolios also have a track record as good as this one, and in some cases better. I have run my buy and hold on Vanguard funds for ten years and I have, until recently, beaten the SP by 2-4% per year.