Chop And Unease On QE Reveal Fragility Of Bull Run [View article]
Emmet K.
I agree 110% ... what gets me is how the market moved all over the place based on comments from a few people.
In addition, ANF (Teen retailer) reported a loss this morning ... stock around $50 per share with an infinite P/E ... this market is very, very sick and is setting everyone up for disappointment that will make the great depression look like a day on the beach!
What Does It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Yamana Gold First Quarter Edition [View article]
Nice job with detailed data.
One comment regarding your opinion stated below:
"Also, when analyzing AUY's report, they do NOT include copper production into their calculation of gold-equivalent ounces, so their gold-equivalents will be significantly lower than the gold-equivalents specified in our calculations. They do not acknowledge it as gold equivalent but they do subtract it when calculating their per ounce production costs - it is just a different way to arrive at the same goal."
The reason AUY does not include copper is because their view is that copper is a hedge to currencies. In addition, copper is found when gold is found and therefore copper is simply a "by-product" of gold exploration efforts. AUY is in the PM business, not the industrial metal business. To equate the two clouds the picture. Also, AUY is on a seasonal schedule. Your comment "But on a sequential basis, AUY suffered a significant drop in both gold and copper production." is misplaced because AUY has natural fluctuations due to "rainy season". If you look at data for last four (4) years, you will see that first quarter is always lower than previous fourth quarter. The proper way to look at AUY is year over year or previous same quarter over quarter comparisons.
The seasonality factor is true for many of the miners you have analyzed as well.
Powerful Reversal Day In Precious Metals And The Miners [View article]
Jeff,
What was interesting about yesterday's market is the bullish bottoming tail hammer on silver.
PM dealer networks are running out of the physical metal ... the physical market is very, very bullish.
All zerohedge articles have put forth 100's of charts that are screaming for some sort of massive market adjustment. Government intervention into the bitcoin market was interesting to say the least.
Betting On A Gold And Silver Rebound? Consider Almaden For Potentially Outsized Returns [View article]
Metals and miners were up, up and away today (20130520) ... zerohedge data/articles suggesting physical markets are closing in on a crisis. Premiums are off the charts assuming a dealer has the physical gold and silver.
Also ... today we saw a bottoming tail hammer that looks very bullish.
Mining Stocks, Especially Gold, Could Be A Good Investment Right Now [View article]
Bingo Mr. Mylant .... Like TwistTie, I believe there is a lot of value in this sector right now even with Gold between 1,300 and 1,400 dollars per ounce. When this turns, it will turn with a vengeance and everyone will be left at the station as the train leaves for the north pole.
I can just hear the smart salivating over the possibilities as the sheep get slaughtered.
Gold Pullback Begins, Natural Gas Tests First Layer Of Support, Oil Falls, Copper Rises [View article]
One comment:
Gold chart not correct ... Gold at $1448+ which is a bottom-tailing hammer which is extremely bullish ... pull back should bottom between 10May13-thru-13May13. Gold will climb the wall of worry all the way up for next 6 months.
Next step should test upper resistance areas in the $1500-1550 range followed by a venture into the $1.700 range.
The sentiment is at a multi-year low for metal and miners going all the way back to the beginning of the gold bull market that began during 1999-2000 time frame.
Sorry to say I disagree completely with your analysis ... especially in your alternative recommendations. I wouldn't touch any of these companies because metals (CU, Nickel, Lead, etc..) in general are in decline.
Gold looks like it is getting ready to lift off the launching pad which will send gold miners in general which will include AUY to new highs. NUGT was up 16.7% today alone.
"Instead of looking at another miner like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), who has a Zacks Rank of 3 (hold), maybe you could focus your energy (literally) on a space that has some legs under it.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a natural gas play and is investing quite a bit of time and money into natural gas delivery infrastructure here in the States. Companies like Ryder (R), UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), AT&T (T) and others are migrating their fleets to natural gas as an alternative to high petrol prices. This should be a huge motivator for nat gas prices.
The price of natural gas has already been on the rise, but remains relatively low. You could also explore the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to invest in natural gas in the form of an ETF.
Regardless of which commodity you choose to put your money in, be sure that the macro fundamentals play into your thesis in the near term and the long term."
Bonds: Follow Bill Gross, Not Warren Buffett [View article]
David F. ..
I agree 110% with your information ... particularly the point about rising interest rates. The really, really bad news is that when rates do begin to rise, we will all be stunned with how fast and without warning the event occurs.
Chop And Unease On QE Reveal Fragility Of Bull Run [View article]
I agree 110% ... what gets me is how the market moved all over the place based on comments from a few people.
In addition, ANF (Teen retailer) reported a loss this morning ... stock around $50 per share with an infinite P/E ... this market is very, very sick and is setting everyone up for disappointment that will make the great depression look like a day on the beach!
What Does It Really Costs To Mine Gold: The Yamana Gold First Quarter Edition [View article]
One comment regarding your opinion stated below:
"Also, when analyzing AUY's report, they do NOT include copper production into their calculation of gold-equivalent ounces, so their gold-equivalents will be significantly lower than the gold-equivalents specified in our calculations. They do not acknowledge it as gold equivalent but they do subtract it when calculating their per ounce production costs - it is just a different way to arrive at the same goal."
The reason AUY does not include copper is because their view is that copper is a hedge to currencies. In addition, copper is found when gold is found and therefore copper is simply a "by-product" of gold exploration efforts. AUY is in the PM business, not the industrial metal business. To equate the two clouds the picture. Also, AUY is on a seasonal schedule. Your comment "But on a sequential basis, AUY suffered a significant drop in both gold and copper production." is misplaced because AUY has natural fluctuations due to "rainy season". If you look at data for last four (4) years, you will see that first quarter is always lower than previous fourth quarter. The proper way to look at AUY is year over year or previous same quarter over quarter comparisons.
The seasonality factor is true for many of the miners you have analyzed as well.
Why Inflation Never Came [View article]
Kind of like the FOX guarding the HEN house.
Powerful Reversal Day In Precious Metals And The Miners [View article]
What was interesting about yesterday's market is the bullish bottoming tail hammer on silver.
PM dealer networks are running out of the physical metal ... the physical market is very, very bullish.
All zerohedge articles have put forth 100's of charts that are screaming for some sort of massive market adjustment. Government intervention into the bitcoin market was interesting to say the least.
We do live in interesting times.
Betting On A Gold And Silver Rebound? Consider Almaden For Potentially Outsized Returns [View article]
Also ... today we saw a bottoming tail hammer that looks very bullish.
Gold Funds Have Lost Their Glitter [View article]
Not today ... NUGT UP 20% ... the short squeeze is on.
More Bad News Is Good News For Bulls [View article]
Many of these companies are making good money even with gold at $1300 to $1400 per ounce.
DE getting hammered for being honest about the future as the US MACRO chart suggests.
Shadowstats inflation data now at 8.7%.
Mining Stocks, Especially Gold, Could Be A Good Investment Right Now [View article]
I can just hear the smart salivating over the possibilities as the sheep get slaughtered.
This Asset Bubble: The Difference Is... [View article]
Question: What is making this market go up?
Answer: Borrowed money from our children and grandchildren!
Every time I read articles from zerohedge that accurately describes what is going on under the covers, it just sends chills down my spine.
For example, Japan's market is going up at the expense of GDP gains from other countries. It is a zero-sum game ... someone wins and someone looses.
US debt-to-GDP ratio continuing to expand! The markets are truly in new uncharted territory.
Gold: Over-Leveraged Portfolios Unwinding, Watch Out Below [View article]
I agree ... We are at the bottom give or take a few dollars. My expectation is that rise in gold is already underway based on Apr19th low.
Rise should be good through 2020.
Gold Pullback Begins, Natural Gas Tests First Layer Of Support, Oil Falls, Copper Rises [View article]
Gold chart not correct ... Gold at $1448+ which is a bottom-tailing hammer which is extremely bullish ... pull back should bottom between 10May13-thru-13May13. Gold will climb the wall of worry all the way up for next 6 months.
Next step should test upper resistance areas in the $1500-1550 range followed by a venture into the $1.700 range.
The sentiment is at a multi-year low for metal and miners going all the way back to the beginning of the gold bull market that began during 1999-2000 time frame.
Gold: An Additional 10% Drop [View article]
I agree completely!!!!
Bear Of The Day: Yamana Gold [View article]
This market is broken and corrupt.
Bear Of The Day: Yamana Gold [View article]
Gold looks like it is getting ready to lift off the launching pad which will send gold miners in general which will include AUY to new highs. NUGT was up 16.7% today alone.
"Instead of looking at another miner like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), who has a Zacks Rank of 3 (hold), maybe you could focus your energy (literally) on a space that has some legs under it.
Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a natural gas play and is investing quite a bit of time and money into natural gas delivery infrastructure here in the States. Companies like Ryder (R), UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), AT&T (T) and others are migrating their fleets to natural gas as an alternative to high petrol prices. This should be a huge motivator for nat gas prices.
The price of natural gas has already been on the rise, but remains relatively low. You could also explore the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to invest in natural gas in the form of an ETF.
Regardless of which commodity you choose to put your money in, be sure that the macro fundamentals play into your thesis in the near term and the long term."
Bonds: Follow Bill Gross, Not Warren Buffett [View article]
I agree 110% with your information ... particularly the point about rising interest rates. The really, really bad news is that when rates do begin to rise, we will all be stunned with how fast and without warning the event occurs.