BORNAGAIN2007's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/6882501/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1459341/comments?source=feed#comment-19222501 19222501
I agree 110% ... what gets me is how the market moved all over the place based on comments from a few people.

In addition, ANF (Teen retailer) reported a loss this morning ... stock around $50 per share with an infinite P/E ... this market is very, very sick and is setting everyone up for disappointment that will make the great depression look like a day on the beach!]]> Fri, 24 May 2013 16:43:23 -0400
I agree 110% ... what gets me is how the market moved all over the place based on comments from a few people.

In addition, ANF (Teen retailer) reported a loss this morning ... stock around $50 per share with an infinite P/E ... this market is very, very sick and is setting everyone up for disappointment that will make the great depression look like a day on the beach!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1456511/comments?source=feed#comment-19183091 19183091
One comment regarding your opinion stated below:

"Also, when analyzing AUY's report, they do NOT include copper production into their calculation of gold-equivalent ounces, so their gold-equivalents will be significantly lower than the gold-equivalents specified in our calculations. They do not acknowledge it as gold equivalent but they do subtract it when calculating their per ounce production costs - it is just a different way to arrive at the same goal."

The reason AUY does not include copper is because their view is that copper is a hedge to currencies. In addition, copper is found when gold is found and therefore copper is simply a "by-product" of gold exploration efforts. AUY is in the PM business, not the industrial metal business. To equate the two clouds the picture. Also, AUY is on a seasonal schedule. Your comment "But on a sequential basis, AUY suffered a significant drop in both gold and copper production." is misplaced because AUY has natural fluctuations due to "rainy season". If you look at data for last four (4) years, you will see that first quarter is always lower than previous fourth quarter. The proper way to look at AUY is year over year or previous same quarter over quarter comparisons.

The seasonality factor is true for many of the miners you have analyzed as well.

]]> Thu, 23 May 2013 18:00:06 -0400
One comment regarding your opinion stated below:

"Also, when analyzing AUY's report, they do NOT include copper production into their calculation of gold-equivalent ounces, so their gold-equivalents will be significantly lower than the gold-equivalents specified in our calculations. They do not acknowledge it as gold equivalent but they do subtract it when calculating their per ounce production costs - it is just a different way to arrive at the same goal."

The reason AUY does not include copper is because their view is that copper is a hedge to currencies. In addition, copper is found when gold is found and therefore copper is simply a "by-product" of gold exploration efforts. AUY is in the PM business, not the industrial metal business. To equate the two clouds the picture. Also, AUY is on a seasonal schedule. Your comment "But on a sequential basis, AUY suffered a significant drop in both gold and copper production." is misplaced because AUY has natural fluctuations due to "rainy season". If you look at data for last four (4) years, you will see that first quarter is always lower than previous fourth quarter. The proper way to look at AUY is year over year or previous same quarter over quarter comparisons.

The seasonality factor is true for many of the miners you have analyzed as well.

]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1448811/comments?source=feed#comment-19097281 19097281
Kind of like the FOX guarding the HEN house.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 20:59:28 -0400
Kind of like the FOX guarding the HEN house.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1449231/comments?source=feed#comment-19067331 19067331
What was interesting about yesterday's market is the bullish bottoming tail hammer on silver.

PM dealer networks are running out of the physical metal ... the physical market is very, very bullish.

All zerohedge articles have put forth 100's of charts that are screaming for some sort of massive market adjustment. Government intervention into the bitcoin market was interesting to say the least.

We do live in interesting times.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 09:23:46 -0400
What was interesting about yesterday's market is the bullish bottoming tail hammer on silver.

PM dealer networks are running out of the physical metal ... the physical market is very, very bullish.

All zerohedge articles have put forth 100's of charts that are screaming for some sort of massive market adjustment. Government intervention into the bitcoin market was interesting to say the least.

We do live in interesting times.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1447411/comments?source=feed#comment-19054171 19054171
Also ... today we saw a bottoming tail hammer that looks very bullish.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 21:48:09 -0400
Also ... today we saw a bottoming tail hammer that looks very bullish.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1447241/comments?source=feed#comment-19042601 19042601
Not today ... NUGT UP 20% ... the short squeeze is on.]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 16:17:56 -0400
Not today ... NUGT UP 20% ... the short squeeze is on.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442141/comments?source=feed#comment-18993011 18993011
Many of these companies are making good money even with gold at $1300 to $1400 per ounce.

DE getting hammered for being honest about the future as the US MACRO chart suggests.

Shadowstats inflation data now at 8.7%. ]]> Sun, 19 May 2013 07:35:39 -0400
Many of these companies are making good money even with gold at $1300 to $1400 per ounce.

DE getting hammered for being honest about the future as the US MACRO chart suggests.

Shadowstats inflation data now at 8.7%. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436971/comments?source=feed#comment-18870131 18870131
I can just hear the smart salivating over the possibilities as the sheep get slaughtered.]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 17:44:53 -0400
I can just hear the smart salivating over the possibilities as the sheep get slaughtered.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1433191/comments?source=feed#comment-18820701 18820701
Question: What is making this market go up?

Answer: Borrowed money from our children and grandchildren!

Every time I read articles from zerohedge that accurately describes what is going on under the covers, it just sends chills down my spine.

For example, Japan's market is going up at the expense of GDP gains from other countries. It is a zero-sum game ... someone wins and someone looses.

US debt-to-GDP ratio continuing to expand! The markets are truly in new uncharted territory.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 14:59:17 -0400
Question: What is making this market go up?

Answer: Borrowed money from our children and grandchildren!

Every time I read articles from zerohedge that accurately describes what is going on under the covers, it just sends chills down my spine.

For example, Japan's market is going up at the expense of GDP gains from other countries. It is a zero-sum game ... someone wins and someone looses.

US debt-to-GDP ratio continuing to expand! The markets are truly in new uncharted territory.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428201/comments?source=feed#comment-18748551 18748551
I agree ... We are at the bottom give or take a few dollars. My expectation is that rise in gold is already underway based on Apr19th low.

Rise should be good through 2020.]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 00:04:59 -0400
I agree ... We are at the bottom give or take a few dollars. My expectation is that rise in gold is already underway based on Apr19th low.

Rise should be good through 2020.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1425501/comments?source=feed#comment-18722911 18722911
Gold chart not correct ... Gold at $1448+ which is a bottom-tailing hammer which is extremely bullish ... pull back should bottom between 10May13-thru-13May13. Gold will climb the wall of worry all the way up for next 6 months.

Next step should test upper resistance areas in the $1500-1550 range followed by a venture into the $1.700 range.

The sentiment is at a multi-year low for metal and miners going all the way back to the beginning of the gold bull market that began during 1999-2000 time frame.]]> Sat, 11 May 2013 22:10:16 -0400
Gold chart not correct ... Gold at $1448+ which is a bottom-tailing hammer which is extremely bullish ... pull back should bottom between 10May13-thru-13May13. Gold will climb the wall of worry all the way up for next 6 months.

Next step should test upper resistance areas in the $1500-1550 range followed by a venture into the $1.700 range.

The sentiment is at a multi-year low for metal and miners going all the way back to the beginning of the gold bull market that began during 1999-2000 time frame.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1414191/comments?source=feed#comment-18610851 18610851
I agree completely!!!!]]> Thu, 09 May 2013 01:29:43 -0400
I agree completely!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1416071/comments?source=feed#comment-18605461 18605461
This market is broken and corrupt. ]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 21:19:59 -0400
This market is broken and corrupt. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1416071/comments?source=feed#comment-18603951 18603951
Gold looks like it is getting ready to lift off the launching pad which will send gold miners in general which will include AUY to new highs. NUGT was up 16.7% today alone.

"Instead of looking at another miner like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), who has a Zacks Rank of 3 (hold), maybe you could focus your energy (literally) on a space that has some legs under it.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a natural gas play and is investing quite a bit of time and money into natural gas delivery infrastructure here in the States. Companies like Ryder (R), UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), AT&T (T) and others are migrating their fleets to natural gas as an alternative to high petrol prices. This should be a huge motivator for nat gas prices.

The price of natural gas has already been on the rise, but remains relatively low. You could also explore the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to invest in natural gas in the form of an ETF.

Regardless of which commodity you choose to put your money in, be sure that the macro fundamentals play into your thesis in the near term and the long term."]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 20:35:09 -0400
Gold looks like it is getting ready to lift off the launching pad which will send gold miners in general which will include AUY to new highs. NUGT was up 16.7% today alone.

"Instead of looking at another miner like Agnico Eagle Mines Ltd. (AEM), who has a Zacks Rank of 3 (hold), maybe you could focus your energy (literally) on a space that has some legs under it.

Chesapeake Energy (CHK) is a natural gas play and is investing quite a bit of time and money into natural gas delivery infrastructure here in the States. Companies like Ryder (R), UPS (UPS), FedEx (FDX), AT&T (T) and others are migrating their fleets to natural gas as an alternative to high petrol prices. This should be a huge motivator for nat gas prices.

The price of natural gas has already been on the rise, but remains relatively low. You could also explore the U.S. Natural Gas Fund (UNG) to invest in natural gas in the form of an ETF.

Regardless of which commodity you choose to put your money in, be sure that the macro fundamentals play into your thesis in the near term and the long term."]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1410491/comments?source=feed#comment-18603381 18603381
I agree 110% with your information ... particularly the point about rising interest rates. The really, really bad news is that when rates do begin to rise, we will all be stunned with how fast and without warning the event occurs.]]> Wed, 08 May 2013 20:18:38 -0400
I agree 110% with your information ... particularly the point about rising interest rates. The really, really bad news is that when rates do begin to rise, we will all be stunned with how fast and without warning the event occurs.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1399541/comments?source=feed#comment-18433331 18433331
With all due respect, you are wrong sir. Below is the truth behind the government propaganda and misinformation. While the headline says 165,000 jobs, it would depend on one's definition of a job.

If you cannot fix the economy, fix the figures.

Dark side to jobs report: Big drop in hours worked
Commentary: Shorter work week equivalent to 500,000 jobs lost!!!!]]> Sat, 04 May 2013 01:50:06 -0400
With all due respect, you are wrong sir. Below is the truth behind the government propaganda and misinformation. While the headline says 165,000 jobs, it would depend on one's definition of a job.

If you cannot fix the economy, fix the figures.

Dark side to jobs report: Big drop in hours worked
Commentary: Shorter work week equivalent to 500,000 jobs lost!!!!]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1388701/comments?source=feed#comment-18309401 18309401 Wed, 01 May 2013 09:29:06 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1370571/comments?source=feed#comment-18086291 18086291 Thu, 25 Apr 2013 12:54:44 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1355191/comments?source=feed#comment-17852151 17852151
I did the same.]]> Fri, 19 Apr 2013 18:02:10 -0400
I did the same.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1345781/comments?source=feed#comment-17760601 17760601
I agree.]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 18:33:43 -0400
I agree.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1345781/comments?source=feed#comment-17760571 17760571
I noted that many including yourself continue to site Cyprus sale, etc.

We all need to step back and take a look at the numbers and realize that the Cyprus sale is a pebble of sand on the beach. People are all lathered up because of social media and web sites like seeking alpha.

I do agree with your comment about miners being at a very deep discount at this time which reminds me of Fall of 2008 crash.

Our government leaders look to be pulling out all the stops to keep the wheels on the global financial cart. Gold just happens to be in the cross hairs of the misguided policies.]]> Wed, 17 Apr 2013 18:33:26 -0400
I noted that many including yourself continue to site Cyprus sale, etc.

We all need to step back and take a look at the numbers and realize that the Cyprus sale is a pebble of sand on the beach. People are all lathered up because of social media and web sites like seeking alpha.

I do agree with your comment about miners being at a very deep discount at this time which reminds me of Fall of 2008 crash.

Our government leaders look to be pulling out all the stops to keep the wheels on the global financial cart. Gold just happens to be in the cross hairs of the misguided policies.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1340161/comments?source=feed#comment-17619061 17619061
If I am not mistaken, gold does well in deflationary environments. I looked at this a couple of years back. Thoughts?

I also agree with your logic regarding Japan, QE expansion, etc.]]> Sun, 14 Apr 2013 22:10:22 -0400
If I am not mistaken, gold does well in deflationary environments. I looked at this a couple of years back. Thoughts?

I also agree with your logic regarding Japan, QE expansion, etc.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1338861/comments?source=feed#comment-17571561 17571561
I agree ... it looks like Mr. Wagner forgot to mention the fact that Platinum, Palladium and Oil got hammered today as well and have exactly the same problem as gold. Also not that the entire industrial complex hammered which does not bode well for the economy. I believe the PMs are simply canaries in the coal mine ... the S&P and RUSSELL 2000 are next on the chopping block based on 100s of divergences that are suddenly appearing all over the place. Patience is the word for the day. The central bankers are in a full fledged panic.

Kind of works like people jumping out of the twin towers on 911. Everyone says "that was awful event". Of course, the real response should be "don't worry, your turn is coming." I saw a lot of headlines today regarding Japan which imply that the financial wheels are coming off of the land of the rising sun.

We are in a brave new world.]]> Sat, 13 Apr 2013 00:19:27 -0400
I agree ... it looks like Mr. Wagner forgot to mention the fact that Platinum, Palladium and Oil got hammered today as well and have exactly the same problem as gold. Also not that the entire industrial complex hammered which does not bode well for the economy. I believe the PMs are simply canaries in the coal mine ... the S&P and RUSSELL 2000 are next on the chopping block based on 100s of divergences that are suddenly appearing all over the place. Patience is the word for the day. The central bankers are in a full fledged panic.

Kind of works like people jumping out of the twin towers on 911. Everyone says "that was awful event". Of course, the real response should be "don't worry, your turn is coming." I saw a lot of headlines today regarding Japan which imply that the financial wheels are coming off of the land of the rising sun.

We are in a brave new world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1337111/comments?source=feed#comment-17566181 17566181
Why? Because there is 6.4 Trillion dollars (a psunami of cash) sitting in Japanese bonds that yield 0.575%. Yes that is right ... less than 1%. This money is looking for a new home because the Japanese YEN is crashing!

We are in uncharted territory that will end badly. Today, I bought some beaten down miners ... blood is in the streets for the miners ... I suspect more blood to come for the rest of the market ... Platinum, Palladium, Copper and Silver (All industrial metals) GOT SLAUGHTERED along with GOLD and OIL.

If you read the Bible, you may be familiar with the term "Abomination of Desolation". Well I have a new term: "Obama-nation of Desolation"

Welcome to the brave new world.]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 19:27:38 -0400
Why? Because there is 6.4 Trillion dollars (a psunami of cash) sitting in Japanese bonds that yield 0.575%. Yes that is right ... less than 1%. This money is looking for a new home because the Japanese YEN is crashing!

We are in uncharted territory that will end badly. Today, I bought some beaten down miners ... blood is in the streets for the miners ... I suspect more blood to come for the rest of the market ... Platinum, Palladium, Copper and Silver (All industrial metals) GOT SLAUGHTERED along with GOLD and OIL.

If you read the Bible, you may be familiar with the term "Abomination of Desolation". Well I have a new term: "Obama-nation of Desolation"

Welcome to the brave new world.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1338121/comments?source=feed#comment-17561551 17561551
You are right ... a lot going on with market that is not correct.

One observation from today: While gold and silver had rough days, I would not be too concerned considering the fact that OIL, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM and COPPER also had a rough day. In addition, Michigan consumer data went into the crapper as well. The metals are simply just a leading indicator. By the way, despite the discussion about deflation being bad for commodities, gold is one of the metals that does very well during deflationary periods based on history of the last several hundred years.

Fiscal and monetary policies are about to blowup and today's market gyrations are simply canaries in the coal mine.]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 17:27:33 -0400
You are right ... a lot going on with market that is not correct.

One observation from today: While gold and silver had rough days, I would not be too concerned considering the fact that OIL, PLATINUM, PALLADIUM and COPPER also had a rough day. In addition, Michigan consumer data went into the crapper as well. The metals are simply just a leading indicator. By the way, despite the discussion about deflation being bad for commodities, gold is one of the metals that does very well during deflationary periods based on history of the last several hundred years.

Fiscal and monetary policies are about to blowup and today's market gyrations are simply canaries in the coal mine.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1336531/comments?source=feed#comment-17560931 17560931
Under normal circumstances, I would agree with your statement except for the fact gold price is simply tracking money creation. For example, Gold and M2 are almost perfectly coordinated. Note that I did not include money creation from other countries.

The bottom line: Our leaders are scared. This last attack on gold is simply leaders grasping for straws in an attempt to cover up the fact that the emperor (central banks) have no clothes and they are about to be exposed.

Anyone being on the right side of this trade is either lucky or has inside information or both.]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 17:15:45 -0400
Under normal circumstances, I would agree with your statement except for the fact gold price is simply tracking money creation. For example, Gold and M2 are almost perfectly coordinated. Note that I did not include money creation from other countries.

The bottom line: Our leaders are scared. This last attack on gold is simply leaders grasping for straws in an attempt to cover up the fact that the emperor (central banks) have no clothes and they are about to be exposed.

Anyone being on the right side of this trade is either lucky or has inside information or both.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1338001/comments?source=feed#comment-17556551 17556551
You are right on the mark ... as I stated in a previous post. What we are witnessing is with gold is panic by government, bank and monetary leaders who will eventually have to admit to a very angry public that their fiscal and monetary policies have failed.]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 15:39:11 -0400
You are right on the mark ... as I stated in a previous post. What we are witnessing is with gold is panic by government, bank and monetary leaders who will eventually have to admit to a very angry public that their fiscal and monetary policies have failed.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1336531/comments?source=feed#comment-17538581 17538581
As I look at the mining companies today, they are at valuation levels that makes absolutely no sense. My conclusion: This market is very, very sick. Using AUY as an example, with todays price below $14, AUY now priced at a level that values gold in the ground at or near $0 with by-product (AG, CU. MB) credits. In addition, AUY will make a lot of money with Gold priced at $1,500 not to mention production growth. Then of course we have companies like AMZN hitting new highs with absolutely no earnings!!

Question: What is wrong with this picture?]]> Fri, 12 Apr 2013 10:04:16 -0400
As I look at the mining companies today, they are at valuation levels that makes absolutely no sense. My conclusion: This market is very, very sick. Using AUY as an example, with todays price below $14, AUY now priced at a level that values gold in the ground at or near $0 with by-product (AG, CU. MB) credits. In addition, AUY will make a lot of money with Gold priced at $1,500 not to mention production growth. Then of course we have companies like AMZN hitting new highs with absolutely no earnings!!

Question: What is wrong with this picture?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1335991/comments?source=feed#comment-17509711 17509711
Not at all sure why you have chosen to lump AUY in with ABX ... company profiles are very different. For example, AUY debt to equity ratio is less than 0.10 unlike ABX with a debt to equity ratio of > 0.5. In addition, AUY has stated that their all-in sustainable cost will be below $800/GEO ... best in the industry. I could name 100 other differences as well ... but I think you get the point.

As far as costs are concerned, every company on the planet earth is seeing cost increases similar in magnitude. It is called inflation.

While your selective siting of costs for mining companies are indeed rising, costs from food to energy everywhere is experiencing double digit increases. Check out price increases at your local Walmart or Walgreens, two of the many retailers with double digit price increases for a variety of retail goods over the last two years.]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 16:11:22 -0400
Not at all sure why you have chosen to lump AUY in with ABX ... company profiles are very different. For example, AUY debt to equity ratio is less than 0.10 unlike ABX with a debt to equity ratio of > 0.5. In addition, AUY has stated that their all-in sustainable cost will be below $800/GEO ... best in the industry. I could name 100 other differences as well ... but I think you get the point.

As far as costs are concerned, every company on the planet earth is seeing cost increases similar in magnitude. It is called inflation.

While your selective siting of costs for mining companies are indeed rising, costs from food to energy everywhere is experiencing double digit increases. Check out price increases at your local Walmart or Walgreens, two of the many retailers with double digit price increases for a variety of retail goods over the last two years.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1335671/comments?source=feed#comment-17506291 17506291
"After the disappointments we have seen to date from bellwethers like Oracle (ORCL), FedEx (http://bit.ly/TyQIIU) and Caterpillar (http://bit.ly/w2jJLD), I am convinced that operating earnings will not only decline year over year in the quarter just ended, but in the quarters that follow as well. This will occur regardless of how operating earnings are calculated. Excluding pension expenses from operating earnings has simply extended the earnings growth story for a few more quarters. Profit margins peaked at 9.5% in the second quarter of 2012, and subsequently fell to 8.9% and 8.0% in the two quarters that followed. Despite expectations for a recovery to approximately 9% in the quarter just ended, margins should gradually revert to the long-term mean of 6%.

Declining operating earnings may not be a relevant factor in determining the direction of stock prices over the short term, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to fund speculative investment activity. Yet a decline in earnings is relevant from the standpoint of market valuation. I can't think of a worse combination than declining earnings with rising valuations. It has always ended badly in the past for the broad market, especially so when investors assumed earnings to be much more than they actually were."]]> Thu, 11 Apr 2013 15:02:45 -0400
"After the disappointments we have seen to date from bellwethers like Oracle (ORCL), FedEx (http://bit.ly/TyQIIU) and Caterpillar (http://bit.ly/w2jJLD), I am convinced that operating earnings will not only decline year over year in the quarter just ended, but in the quarters that follow as well. This will occur regardless of how operating earnings are calculated. Excluding pension expenses from operating earnings has simply extended the earnings growth story for a few more quarters. Profit margins peaked at 9.5% in the second quarter of 2012, and subsequently fell to 8.9% and 8.0% in the two quarters that followed. Despite expectations for a recovery to approximately 9% in the quarter just ended, margins should gradually revert to the long-term mean of 6%.

Declining operating earnings may not be a relevant factor in determining the direction of stock prices over the short term, so long as the Federal Reserve continues to fund speculative investment activity. Yet a decline in earnings is relevant from the standpoint of market valuation. I can't think of a worse combination than declining earnings with rising valuations. It has always ended badly in the past for the broad market, especially so when investors assumed earnings to be much more than they actually were."]]>