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  • Gold's Correction Is Not Over  [View article]

    I too am a little bruised. I keep reminding myself that it is never what people say that counts, but it is what they do. The latest COT report shows that a large bullish position by commercial traders in treasuries has been established. These guys are seldom ever wrong. Moreover, the COT report for gold, while not wildly bullish, was nonetheless bullish overall. Other elements are beginning to align as well.

    Large put positions in the SPY futures are present as well. Something is on the horizon ... people appear to be hedged up all over the place.

    With social media being the primary driver behind herd behavior, both down and up tend to be overly exaggerated. In the end, the truth always comes out over time.
    Feb 15, 2013. 01:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold And Sentiment, Silver's Utility, Liquidity And Debt  [View article]

    Well written article.

    I agree with you 110% in your takeaway.

    "The numbers are broken; we are in a brave new world in most facets of culture, certainly financial and economic behavior. All systems reveal fungibility and distortion as intrinsic to social discourse and institutional behavior. Look at "The Bourne Legacy" or "The Dark Knight Rises" as typical of our era's shadow plays. The LIBOR was made to be manipulated. Games are being played and the world re-ordered. Still, at the end of the day, gold is NOT about sentiment, though for most people silver is a diversified and thus safer investment. "
    Feb 15, 2013. 01:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Problem With Yamana Gold  [View article]

    I agree .. sharing of ideas and opinions between investors and traders of all types, not just professionals, is great. But here is what is at the core of my thought process.

    It is one thing to share information, it is an entirely different matter to see recommendations flying all over the place that target selective companies via social media. One thing I do know ... as a culture we are in a lot of trouble and at the core of the trouble is the lack digital discernment in this new global social media culture.
    Feb 15, 2013. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Best-Of-Breed Yamana Strikes More Gold  [View article]

    I agree that AUY and others offer excellent value along with couple of others. What is interesting in the case of AUY is that their "all-in" cost figure is below $800 per GEO which means they are making over $800 per GEO. I guess gold could goto $1,500 and AUY would make $700. Bottom line ... they (AUY) are still making a healthy margin.

    Also on this blog, I noticed people siting Argentine government and economy as challenges going forward. Below is a note describing current economic activity in Argentina at this time. Contrary to popular opinion, the sky is not falling in Argentina.

    Mining investment in Argentina grows 72% despite risky business climate
    Cecilia Jamasmie | January 30, 2013

    Mining-related investments in Argentina increased a whopping 72% in 2012 compared to the previous year, said local consultancy firm IES Online on Tuesday.

    Despite mounting government interventionism in the industry, foreign and local investors spent a total of $3.8 billion and the firm expects this trend to continue this year, with planned investments already amounting to more than $4 billion (or $20bn Argentine pesos).
    Feb 15, 2013. 10:48 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Latest Report On Gold Demand Trends Matters  [View article]

    I have been reading your information with great interest. Many of the things you site make one implicit assumption which I have listed below:

    All published data is accurate and truthful.

    Do you really believe the data being published by the central banks accurately reflects the true holdings and reserves? I am very skeptical.

    Ron Paul (Retired U.S. Congressman) actually proposed to audit the federal reserve and US gold holdings. That proposal was summarily dismissed because it would be revealed that the emporer (America) has no clothes.

    Case in point, the chart you referenced sites the US as having 76% of reserves in gold. That my friend is wrong .. it is more like 3.4%. I could go on and write an entire book on the matter, but at the end of the day, a very ancient book that I read a lot says it better than I could ever say it and accurately describes the nature of man which includes the people in the government and organizations preparing the information you are selectively siting.

    Jer 17:9 NKJV - "The heart [is] deceitful above all [things], And desperately wicked; Who can know it?

    By the way, the US may not be the single largest holder of gold. Wouldn't that be a revelation to shake up the markets? I know one thing: Based on latest COT report for treasuries, the commercial traders are expecting something very major to take place very shortly. These guys are rarely ever wrong.
    Feb 15, 2013. 10:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Nearing A Bottom?  [View article]

    While I would agree that this ratio may not be a final determining factor in an investment decision, this ratio metric when coupled with other information (technical, fundamental and sentiment) can often provide insights that either support or refute an investment position. More importantly, it can answer an important question: Am I buying at a potential top or a potential bottom?

    What is interesting is that COT reports demonstrate that a major change is about to occur. For example, Gold is bullish, Silver is bearish, Treasuries are bullish and S&P is bearish. In addition, this metric coupled with a VIX measurement that is at near all time lows is setting the entire structure up for a fall of epic proportions. Insiders are selling at a ratio of 9-to-1.

    We are lining up for the perfect storm and metrics like those sited in this article are supportive of that perfect storm. Debt is out of control worldwide, temporal relativism is rampant and currency wars have begun. The entire world has lost site of an absolute position ... everyone has their own individual truth. Metrics like one sited in this article provide an absolute anchor to answer the question: Where are we at in the longer term?

    The ratio sited in this article along with other information has proven to me as a useful tool in validating an investment decision. Of course with all of the corruption and manipulation in the system since 2008, there have been times when technical, fundamental and sentiment analysis mean absolutely nothing. I can site dozens of examples from oil futures, etc., that demonstrate some very strange behaviors not explained any other way.
    Feb 15, 2013. 09:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Current Market Overvalued?  [View article]
    Bill L ...

    Nice link. One other item worth mentioning comes from the COT report for treasuries. As of right now, the commercials are positioned for a rally in treasuries which means something is about to occur in a big way. Commercials are rarely wrong.
    Feb 15, 2013. 02:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Problem With Yamana Gold  [View article]

    I have looked at this article and sentence in question and you did indeed make a positional recommendation. I am Series 66 and Series 7 certified in the continental United States and know securities laws inside and out. Your recommendation is not only posted on the Seeking Alpha website, but it went to yahoo, cnbc and probably 100 other places. While you may indeed prove to be right, making an investment recommendation to short the stock because of a personal opinion is problematic.

    I have sent your information to Yamana. What I do not understand is why you did not contact Yamana directly before publishing an article like this one. I am sure Lisa Doddridge, Vice President, Corporate Communications and Investor Relations would be able to validate whether or not your concern is justified.
    Feb 14, 2013. 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Problem With Yamana Gold  [View article]

    I agree with your comment: "In the end, it's up to the individual investor to make the call."

    Then why are you making investment recommendations for the public? Are you licensed to do so? See comment below:

    "For those with a stomach strong enough to digest the Argentinian country risk associated with Yamana Gold, we recommend to wait and speculate on a lower share price due to the pricing-in of this increasing risk. And for those with an appetite for a high-stakes play: have you considered shorting Yamana Gold based on their country risk profile?"
    Feb 14, 2013. 08:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Central Banks Buy Most Gold In 50 Years, Fueling Record Prices Despite Plunge In India's Demand  [View article]
    One Comment:

    Looking as data in the table, "% of reserve" number is an absolute JOKE! If one looks at the total US reserves held by other countries, the figure comes to 13,787,600,000,000 or 13,787.6 Billion. THIS FACT IS WHY BORROWING MONEY TO PAY OUR BILLS IN THE USA IS A REALLY BAD IDEA!! This fact will become the ultimate American nightmare.

    US Gold Value in Dollars = 8133.5 Tonnes * 35,272.6 Oz/Tonne * $1,635/oz = 469,077,944,856

    The "% of reserve" figure for the US is 469.1 Billion /13,787 Billion or 3.4%, not 76%. To get to the 76% figure sited in the data, Gold price would need to be $36,500+/oz!

    While the tonnes figure may be right, the "% of reserve" column is an absolute joke. The emperor (America) has no clothes.

    Bottom Line: The CENTRAL BANKS are going to be buying a lot more gold in the near future just to get at a 10% reserve level if all the data is as bad as the US "% of reserve" number is in this chart.
    Feb 14, 2013. 07:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Our Problem With Yamana Gold  [View article]

    Not sure I agree with your article. Specifically, based on research and notes from other sources, the risk you site is not as extreme as your article infers it to be at this time. Below is recent note that discusses economic activity in Argentina. Yamana has been a solid supporter of the Argentine government and is a solid citizen in that country. I believe your concern is way overblown and the Argentine government will get its act together.

    Mining investment in Argentina grows 72% despite risky business climate
    Cecilia Jamasmie | January 30, 2013

    Mining-related investments in Argentina increased a whopping 72% in 2012 compared to the previous year, said local consultancy firm IES Online on Tuesday.

    Despite mounting government interventionism in the industry, foreign and local investors spent a total of $3.8 billion and the firm expects this trend to continue this year, with planned investments already amounting to more than $4 billion (or $20bn Argentine pesos).
    Feb 14, 2013. 03:18 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 9 Reasons Stocks Can March Higher This Year  [View article]
    I have titled this note: "9 Reasons Stocks Can March Much Lower This Year

    1. Debt in the USA is excessive with no end in sight because of TAX, SPEND and BORROW policy of US Government leaders. Debt to GDP ratio tops 1.2.

    2. Dollar and bond market decline/collapse because the market sets rates based on credit quality that results in 10 year and 30 year rate resetting to correct level. The 30-year bonds sink back toward 138.00-134.00 at first and then fall further. The most important market measure will be the cost of money or yield. When the 30-year bonds are trading at 5-7%, it’s lights out for central bankers. Note that under this scenario, the credit rating agencies having no involvement at all.

    3. Over regulation, over reaching of US government cause contraction in business investment and hiring.

    4. Earnings decline in US corporations results in a market that resets to a proper level. S&P earnings fall below $85 because of weak demand and over regulation by government.

    5. Healthcare costs rise exponentially as result of Obamacare regulations and lack of doctors willing to take on new patients.

    6. Market recognizes that the inflation genie is out of the bottle resulting in a recognized inflation rate that is double digit.

    7. Europe experiences financial stress resulting in rapid rate rise in bonds for PIIGS nations.

    8. Energy prices accelerate because of 1.) lack of leadership in US to establish a sustainable energy policy using fossil fuels and 2.) war in the middleast.

    9. Japanese YEN collapse is the 1st inning salvo of currency wars which leads to unpredictable outcomes. PM complex does an about face and rises rapidly.

    10. All this ends with a new currency system in many places that uses gold as the backbone of the financial system. Market participants come to the realization that the debt growth was not the answer to true economic prosperity.
    Feb 14, 2013. 02:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 More Big Reasons To Buy Gold  [View article]
    One comment:

    There was an article I saw during last 60 days that discussed central bank strategies and the article inferred that they are all moving toward a 10% figure that is illustrated on your "Gold as a Percentage of Total Reserves" chart.

    If that is truly comes to pass over the next couple of years, there is going to be a lot of demand for gold coming from central banks.
    Feb 14, 2013. 12:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Yamana Gold: Strong Upside Potential From This Low Debt Producer  [View article]

    Extorre is probably no more risky than any other venture around the world. American sovereignty is more at risk thing else I can think of at this time. Below is a recent announcement from AUY on status and progress of the Extorre acquisition.

    Yamana Gold announces 44% increase to mineral resources at Cerro Moro
    "Yamana Gold provided an update on its Cerro Moro gold project in Santa Cruz, Argentina, reporting initial indicated mineral resource of 1.95M gold equivalent ounces, an increase of 44% from the previous estimate before the company acquired the project, contained in 4.16M tonnes with an average GEO grade of 14.6 grams per tonne; and an inferred mineral resource of 490,000 GEO contained in 3.60M tonnes with an average GEO grade of 4.2 g/t. The company said its 2013 exploration program at Cerro Moro will focus on drill testing eight priority target areas located on the northern La Negrita block, an entirely new zone, and drill testing existing geologic targets, geochemical anomalies and vein extensions within nine priority target areas in the southern Escondida block, which contains the majority of current known mineral resources. The 2013 exploration drilling program at Cerro Moro commenced in mid-January and is already demonstrating success. The company is expecting to spend $12M in 2013 on exploration to execute the 25,000 metres of drilling with the goal of expanding the areas of mineralization to the La Negrita block and to add significantly to the mineral resource base."
    Feb 14, 2013. 11:53 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Spark That Ignites A Hyperbolic Rise In Silver And Gold  [View article]
    2old2retire ...

    I understand your point, but here is why I would hold to my position of 50%.

    Under the original pricing model, I got two for a given price. Your calculation assumes I could get only 1, but contractually that is not possible. Because of contract, the price for the same commodity (two of something) goes up by 50%. What you suggest would be correct if I could buy just one, but that is not possible.

    Consumers have no idea what Walgreens did to them as evidenced by our discussion. Everyone believes that price increase was only 25%, but in reality it was 50% because of contract. It is a deceptive slight of hand like magic based solely on contract.The bottom line is that if I originally got 2 of something for a $1, I now get 2 of something for $1.50 and that is a 50% increase.
    Feb 14, 2013. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment