Almaden Minerals: This Stock Is A Leveraged Buy On A Gold Rebound [View article]
A lot of the miners look to be primed for large gains once they get the green light from gold. Below is an example of some data for one of the many companies that I follow that, by all measures, is selling at a deep discount. I am not going to disclose the company and let everyone guess.
__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __Gold __ __ __Silver __ __ __Copper __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __(000's Oz) _ (000's Oz) __ (Millions of lbs) Total P&P Mineral Reserves ____ 17,676 __ 89,191 ____ 2,687 Total M&I Mineral Resources ___ 14,095 __ 78,846 ____ 1,097 Total Inferred Mineral Resources _10,068 __ 67,703 _____ 565
Forward P/E for this firm in the single digits. Growth rate is double digit. Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.10. Additional reserves from property currently being developed that would add as much as 35% to existing reserve base once project is completed.
For next 20 years, if this company mined everything in the ground, it would average 1.375 Billion dollars in profit per year if gold, silver and copper prices just stayed at current levels.
Nice analysis ... I agree with you in that both USD and mining look like they want to reverse. Accumulation of mining stocks was significant on 22Mar13 at the close of the market. Volumes for many mining stocks jumped just before the close. Someone did some serious buying on the miners into the close. $DXY was weak today as well.
Some of your H-S pattern assumptions are a little bit of a stretch. I know everyone tries to make sense of the market, but with so much government intervention, not sure patterns are valid. While I would consider the $GOLD:$WTIC pattern assumption to be valid, the $GOLD:$SPX pattern looks to fail a couple of rules for H-S patterns.
Sometimes these ratios may or may not apply. Information is painting a very confusing picture which can be explained by human (government) intervention. We no longer have a free market situation driven by demand/supply fundamentals.
US in particular resembles a addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. These markets look irrational and nonsensical.
I would agree with the premise of your article (The Case For A Strong U.S. Dollar) provided the following thres challenges get resolved:
1. America has a spiritual revival "2Chronicles 7:14" style which would be similar to the birth of America. ("First Great Awakening" during 1,730-1,740 time period.) 2. American leaders get a handle on the US fiscal spending problem. We cannot TAX, BORROW and SPEND forever. US debt will eclipse $17 Trillion this year with no end to debt growth in sight. 3. Lazy Americans get out of their recliners and vote!! For example, during the most recent primary elections for Supreme Court of Wisconsin, less than 20% of Wisconsinites voted. That type of behavior is despicable!!
If we continue down the path we are on, the dollar will keep trending down until it gets to 0!
One question: I have been following the $DXY for last several days and the pattern looks to be in the middle of completing a top formation process. Note that UUPT was down today at 1.3%+. With US debt continuing to grow at almost a double digit rate with no end in sight, do we really think that recent move in the dollar is the beginning of something or is it just a rally in an overall bear market?
Well written article. Over the past several weeks, divergences were identified by both yourself and many others that make no sense in a free market. One example is the COPPER to SPY chart that shows COPPER in decline while SPY increasing. While I could site 100s of other examples, it suffices to say that these kinds of things do not happen statistically without a little help (manipulation, rigging, etc.). What is really interesting is that everyone (media, investment firms, banks, analysts, etc..) are in on the fix and the fix is worldwide.
The real troubling issue about all of this behavior is that there is no accountability. The US in particular reminds me of an addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. All one can see is TAX, BORROW and SPEND within every government around the world. CYPRUS is a prime example of what happens when the end of TAX, BORROW and SPEND is reached.
In the end, the answer to the question "Are the markets rigged?",my answer is YES with no end in sight.
The Biggest Threat To The Stock Market Rally [View article]
Derrik,
Inflation is already out of control. John Williams data from shadowstats.com (http://bit.ly/nyzRiF) has correct data. Sorry to say this, but your blue plotted line is wrong. Below is previous comment that I am going to repeat here regarding the FED. The quotation below always comes to mind when the word "FED" is mentioned:
"Figures can lie and liars can figure."
To see this principle applied, just look at the perversion that has occurred in the calculation of the CPI index over the last four (4) decades. In every case, the index components were adjusted to produce a desired outcome and deceive citizens.
We need a divine miracle to undo with minimal damage the financial mess that has been created.
I agree with you 110%!!! You my friend are right on the mark!!
Per the title of your article "The Fed's Math Just Doesn't Add Up", I would add that the Fed's Math hasn't added up for last couple of decades. The quotation below always comes to mind when the word "FED" and "POLITICIAN" are mentioned:
"Figures can lie and liars can figure."
To see this principle applied, just look at the perversion that has occurred in the calculation of the CPI index over the last four (4) decades. In every case, the index components were adjusted to produce a desired outcome and deceive citizens.
We need a divine miracle to undo with minimal damage the financial mess that has been created.
2 Myths About Gold Propagated By The Bears (And Why They Are Wrong) [View article]
Well done with technical analysis. While specific technical analysis is supportive of commodities in general, fundamental analysis shows that the elephant in the room is debt. We just continue to push the can down the road. It is unacceptable that the US Senate could actually make the claim that they are fiscally responsible when they did not produce a budget for 1,415 days! All historical data is suggesting that debt will become the real reason for gold meteoric rise in price when (not if) it occurs. America and the world are in absolute denial when it comes to debt.
I agree completely with your conclusions below:
The myth that gold has no exchange value reflects a misunderstanding of gold's role in the economy, and given its function as a medium of exchange, it should be a cornerstone of any portfolio.
The myth that gold is a poor investment because it doesn't pay a dividend fails to state the risks in owning dividend-paying assets, and instead considers only the benefits. Gold ownership is most attractive precisely when these risks are highest."
When Do The Bears Admit They Are Wrong? [View article]
IgnisFatuus,
Great questions. But in the end it is "We the People" who are in control. It is happening because "We the People" put up with it.
Personal things I have done as a citizen to remedy the situation.
1. Make it a point to know who my elected representatives are at the present time. 2. Program elected official contact information into my cell phone. 3. Make my vote and voice heard on major pieces of legislation that go against Christian values. 4. I pray daily for leadership and guidance.
In the end, all of our elected officials are responsible to "We the People". I encourage everyone to read the Constitution and Declaration of Independence at least a couple of times a year or more as time permits.
When Do The Bears Admit They Are Wrong? [View article]
Bill,
Thanks for presenting accurate information. I could really expound on this topic, but will limit discussion to one specific point in the form of a question. Understand that I want to believe that the glass is half full, but with each passing day, it is getting harder and harder to maintain a positive perspective.
I do have one question for you?
If one looks at the debt increase in the USA and stock market gains (in market capitalization), which one is bigger?
Answer: US Debt.
So since debt has increased more than market capitalization, how will the US resolve its debt problem? The US situation kind of reminds me of an addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. A day of reckoning is ahead that will make 2008 look like a day on the beach. The only saving grace for the USA is that interest rates have stayed low.
I continue to pray for the leadership of the USA that they will get a handle on fiscal budget and soon. Time is running out and the party is about to end and end badly if the US leadership and its people continue with the TAX, SPEND and BORROW policies of the past. It is unacceptable that the US Senate could actually make the claim that they are fiscally responsible when they did not produce a budget for 1,415 days!
Yamana Gold And Newmont Mining: Time To Shine Again, Upgraded [View article]
I believe the entire PM complex which would include AUY and NEM are waiting for a green light from gold. Both AUY and GG have kept their debt-to-equity ratios in-line unlike some other miners in the space. AUY in particular might become a takeover candidate. The CEO of AUY indicated he would do what is beneficial to shareholders if the price is right.
Gold equities are indeed cheep for following five reasons:
1. Forward P/E rations now in the single digit range for most miners. 2. Resource/Reserve growth continuing through robust exploration programs in many cases. 3. Gold in the ground priced at or near $0/ounce for those companies with by-product (AG, CU, MB, ZC, etc..) credits. Case in point, NEM sitting on 9+ Billion pounds of copper in the ground. Many other gold mines have significant AG, MB and CU deposits as well. None of this valuation takes into account M&I and inferred resources. 4. Additional capacity coming on line within the next couple of years that equates to double digit growth rate for many firms. 5. Dividend as percentage of cash flow for many companies indicates room for double digit dividend growth.
Gold Miners: The Only Cheap Dividend Stocks Left [View article]
Gold equities are indeed cheep for following reasons:
1. Forward P/E in the single digit range. 2. Resource/Reserve growth continuing through exploration in many cases. 3. Gold in the ground priced at or near $0/ounce for those companies with by-product (AG, CU, MB, ZC, etc..) credits. Case in point, NEM sitting on 9+ Billion pounds of copper in the ground. Many other gold mines have significant AG and CU deposits as well. None of this valuation takes into account M&I and inferred resources. 4. Additional capacity coming on line within the next couple of years that equates to double digit growth rate for many firms. 5. Dividend as percentage of cash flow for many companies indicates room for double digit dividend growth.
When (not if) gold miners begin to move, the gains will be sudden and sharp.
Excerpt from Article "The US Government gold holdings have not been audited or verified in more than four decades. The US trade data defines the export of nonmonetary gold as a sale of gold from a private seller within the US to an official agency. In September 2012, we espoused that the Western Central Banks have been surreptitiously selling/ leasing their gold through private channels in an effort to increase the available supply and in turn suppress prices."
Almaden Minerals: This Stock Is A Leveraged Buy On A Gold Rebound [View article]
__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __Gold __ __ __Silver __ __ __Copper
__ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __(000's Oz) _ (000's Oz) __ (Millions of lbs)
Total P&P Mineral Reserves ____ 17,676 __ 89,191 ____ 2,687
Total M&I Mineral Resources ___ 14,095 __ 78,846 ____ 1,097
Total Inferred Mineral Resources _10,068 __ 67,703 _____ 565
Forward P/E for this firm in the single digits. Growth rate is double digit. Debt/Equity Ratio < 0.10. Additional reserves from property currently being developed that would add as much as 35% to existing reserve base once project is completed.
For next 20 years, if this company mined everything in the ground, it would average 1.375 Billion dollars in profit per year if gold, silver and copper prices just stayed at current levels.
Gold Ratios - An Update [View article]
Nice analysis ... I agree with you in that both USD and mining look like they want to reverse. Accumulation of mining stocks was significant on 22Mar13 at the close of the market. Volumes for many mining stocks jumped just before the close. Someone did some serious buying on the miners into the close. $DXY was weak today as well.
Gold Ratios - An Update [View article]
Some of your H-S pattern assumptions are a little bit of a stretch. I know everyone tries to make sense of the market, but with so much government intervention, not sure patterns are valid. While I would consider the $GOLD:$WTIC pattern assumption to be valid, the $GOLD:$SPX pattern looks to fail a couple of rules for H-S patterns.
Sometimes these ratios may or may not apply. Information is painting a very confusing picture which can be explained by human (government) intervention. We no longer have a free market situation driven by demand/supply fundamentals.
US in particular resembles a addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. These markets look irrational and nonsensical.
The Case For A Strong U.S. Dollar [View article]
I would agree with the premise of your article (The Case For A Strong U.S. Dollar) provided the following thres challenges get resolved:
1. America has a spiritual revival "2Chronicles 7:14" style which would be similar to the birth of America. ("First Great Awakening" during 1,730-1,740 time period.)
2. American leaders get a handle on the US fiscal spending problem. We cannot TAX, BORROW and SPEND forever. US debt will eclipse $17 Trillion this year with no end to debt growth in sight.
3. Lazy Americans get out of their recliners and vote!! For example, during the most recent primary elections for Supreme Court of Wisconsin, less than 20% of Wisconsinites voted. That type of behavior is despicable!!
If we continue down the path we are on, the dollar will keep trending down until it gets to 0!
The Return Of King Dollar [View article]
Good work on the charts.
One question: I have been following the $DXY for last several days and the pattern looks to be in the middle of completing a top formation process. Note that UUPT was down today at 1.3%+. With US debt continuing to grow at almost a double digit rate with no end in sight, do we really think that recent move in the dollar is the beginning of something or is it just a rally in an overall bear market?
Are The Markets Rigged? [View article]
Well written article. Over the past several weeks, divergences were identified by both yourself and many others that make no sense in a free market. One example is the COPPER to SPY chart that shows COPPER in decline while SPY increasing. While I could site 100s of other examples, it suffices to say that these kinds of things do not happen statistically without a little help (manipulation, rigging, etc.). What is really interesting is that everyone (media, investment firms, banks, analysts, etc..) are in on the fix and the fix is worldwide.
The real troubling issue about all of this behavior is that there is no accountability. The US in particular reminds me of an addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. All one can see is TAX, BORROW and SPEND within every government around the world. CYPRUS is a prime example of what happens when the end of TAX, BORROW and SPEND is reached.
In the end, the answer to the question "Are the markets rigged?",my answer is YES with no end in sight.
The Biggest Threat To The Stock Market Rally [View article]
Inflation is already out of control. John Williams data from shadowstats.com (http://bit.ly/nyzRiF) has correct data. Sorry to say this, but your blue plotted line is wrong. Below is previous comment that I am going to repeat here regarding the FED. The quotation below always comes to mind when the word "FED" is mentioned:
"Figures can lie and liars can figure."
To see this principle applied, just look at the perversion that has occurred in the calculation of the CPI index over the last four (4) decades. In every case, the index components were adjusted to produce a desired outcome and deceive citizens.
We need a divine miracle to undo with minimal damage the financial mess that has been created.
Gold: The Bottom Is In And We're Going Much Higher From Here [View article]
Great comment about the bear!! I absolutely love it. You are a gentleman and a scholar.
I bet they were surprised.
The battle cry for the day was .... RUN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
The Fed's Math Just Doesn't Add Up [View article]
I agree with you 110%!!! You my friend are right on the mark!!
Per the title of your article "The Fed's Math Just Doesn't Add Up", I would add that the Fed's Math hasn't added up for last couple of decades. The quotation below always comes to mind when the word "FED" and "POLITICIAN" are mentioned:
"Figures can lie and liars can figure."
To see this principle applied, just look at the perversion that has occurred in the calculation of the CPI index over the last four (4) decades. In every case, the index components were adjusted to produce a desired outcome and deceive citizens.
We need a divine miracle to undo with minimal damage the financial mess that has been created.
2 Myths About Gold Propagated By The Bears (And Why They Are Wrong) [View article]
I agree completely with your conclusions below:
The myth that gold has no exchange value reflects a misunderstanding of gold's role in the economy, and given its function as a medium of exchange, it should be a cornerstone of any portfolio.
The myth that gold is a poor investment because it doesn't pay a dividend fails to state the risks in owning dividend-paying assets, and instead considers only the benefits. Gold ownership is most attractive precisely when these risks are highest."
When Do The Bears Admit They Are Wrong? [View article]
Great questions. But in the end it is "We the People" who are in control. It is happening because "We the People" put up with it.
Personal things I have done as a citizen to remedy the situation.
1. Make it a point to know who my elected representatives are at the present time.
2. Program elected official contact information into my cell phone.
3. Make my vote and voice heard on major pieces of legislation that go against Christian values.
4. I pray daily for leadership and guidance.
In the end, all of our elected officials are responsible to "We the People". I encourage everyone to read the Constitution and Declaration of Independence at least a couple of times a year or more as time permits.
When Do The Bears Admit They Are Wrong? [View article]
Thanks for presenting accurate information. I could really expound on this topic, but will limit discussion to one specific point in the form of a question. Understand that I want to believe that the glass is half full, but with each passing day, it is getting harder and harder to maintain a positive perspective.
I do have one question for you?
If one looks at the debt increase in the USA and stock market gains (in market capitalization), which one is bigger?
Answer: US Debt.
So since debt has increased more than market capitalization, how will the US resolve its debt problem? The US situation kind of reminds me of an addict in a drug store with a CREDIT CARD. A day of reckoning is ahead that will make 2008 look like a day on the beach. The only saving grace for the USA is that interest rates have stayed low.
I continue to pray for the leadership of the USA that they will get a handle on fiscal budget and soon. Time is running out and the party is about to end and end badly if the US leadership and its people continue with the TAX, SPEND and BORROW policies of the past. It is unacceptable that the US Senate could actually make the claim that they are fiscally responsible when they did not produce a budget for 1,415 days!
Yamana Gold And Newmont Mining: Time To Shine Again, Upgraded [View article]
Gold equities are indeed cheep for following five reasons:
1. Forward P/E rations now in the single digit range for most miners.
2. Resource/Reserve growth continuing through robust exploration programs in many cases.
3. Gold in the ground priced at or near $0/ounce for those companies with by-product (AG, CU, MB, ZC, etc..) credits. Case in point, NEM sitting on 9+ Billion pounds of copper in the ground. Many other gold mines have significant AG, MB and CU deposits as well. None of this valuation takes into account M&I and inferred resources.
4. Additional capacity coming on line within the next couple of years that equates to double digit growth rate for many firms.
5. Dividend as percentage of cash flow for many companies indicates room for double digit dividend growth.
Gold Miners: The Only Cheap Dividend Stocks Left [View article]
1. Forward P/E in the single digit range.
2. Resource/Reserve growth continuing through exploration in many cases.
3. Gold in the ground priced at or near $0/ounce for those companies with by-product (AG, CU, MB, ZC, etc..) credits. Case in point, NEM sitting on 9+ Billion pounds of copper in the ground. Many other gold mines have significant AG and CU deposits as well. None of this valuation takes into account M&I and inferred resources.
4. Additional capacity coming on line within the next couple of years that equates to double digit growth rate for many firms.
5. Dividend as percentage of cash flow for many companies indicates room for double digit dividend growth.
When (not if) gold miners begin to move, the gains will be sudden and sharp.
For The First Time In 6 Weeks, Gold Bullion Is Added To The GLD Trust [View article]
Sprott: Do Western Central Banks Have Any Gold Left? Below is the URL for anyone who is interested.
http://bit.ly/XpcJsG
Excerpt from Article
"The US Government gold holdings have not been audited or verified in more than four decades. The US trade data defines the export of nonmonetary gold as a sale of gold from a private seller within the US to an official agency. In September 2012, we espoused that the Western Central Banks have been surreptitiously selling/ leasing their gold through private channels in an effort to increase the available supply and in turn suppress prices."