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phil2k

phil2k
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  • Cabot Is A Safe Bet In Current Market Conditions [View article]
    So this was by far and away my biggest dog in 2014 and I'm at an inflection point with this investment. I bought this stock at $34 after a pretty big drop believing I was getting the best of breed natural gas Marcellus Shale producer on the cheap. Since then almost everything I read regarding COG falls under one, or a combination of the following 3 headlines:

    1. Poor natural gas differentials
    2. Plummeting WTI/Brent prices (which is dragging down NYMEX prices)
    3. Unseasonably high winter temperatures (this week excluded!)

    The only real notable driver is the Constitution Pipeline that will partially address some of the infrastructure issues facing producers in the Marcellus, but I find myself wondering if that alone is even enough to get me back to even in the name. There was a time when I believed that this was a strong acquisition target, I'm not even sure of that anymore. Whilst the production growth is solid, Cabot trades at a significant premium to the other Marcellus producers both on a TTM and forward PE multiple basis. Finally, Cabot's not paying me to wait through these challenging times in the form of a dividend either (a proper dividend - 2% or more)

    Based on all of the above, perhaps someone could tell me, as succinctly as possible, why I should continue to hold this stock?
    Jan 8, 2015. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can EOG Resources Grow At 25% With Oil At $65? [View article]
    "They didn't say they wouldn't cut, but OPEC will have to cut and that is what's going to happen. The Saudis are the ones that make the cut. They can take $70 oil and take it out 10 years they have the cash reserves that allow them to do that. But they can't do that to the rest of OPEC," - T Boone Pickens
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:16 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Canadian Banks For Your Dividend Growth Portfolio, Like Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    Massacred today, just doubled my position at $55.83 with a new cost average of $57.96
    Dec 8, 2014. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Canadian Banks For Your Dividend Growth Portfolio, Like Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    Where do people think it will settle, though? $55? $53?
    Dec 5, 2014. 03:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Canadian Banks For Your Dividend Growth Portfolio, Like Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    So I made a small opening allocation yesterday ahead of the earnings. I'm interested to hear what people think will be the next floor of support for the stock? $55? I want to triple my holdings with my next allocation.
    Dec 5, 2014. 01:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Consider Canadian Banks For Your Dividend Growth Portfolio, Like Bank Of Nova Scotia [View article]
    I'm new to the stock as of today, been on my watch list for a while.
    Dec 4, 2014. 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Opko: Ignore The Commentary And Focus On Numbers [View article]
    Does anybody know when OPKO will test Rayaldee head to head against Calcitriol, the current standard care treatment for SHPT/CKD/Vitamin D Insufficiency? The recent release makes no mention of head to head to trials. I asked a nephrologist friend and another friend who works for a major business consultant for pharmaceuticals about this and both said that the lack of head to head trials during phase 3 is very unusual.
    Aug 23, 2014. 08:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • EOG Resources Will Retain Its Title As The Top U.S. Oil Producer [View article]
    Are we heading towards sub-$90 WTI prices?

    I love EOG, it is a core holding of mine and I want to add more at the right price. If WTI enters the $80s I would assume EOG would then go sub-$100.

    Do you fine people see this as likely?
    Aug 22, 2014. 11:47 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise: A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    When does this one hit the bottom? Are we going to see the .50s on this stock? I'm going to get stopped out soon.
    Aug 15, 2014. 02:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners Poised For Potential Growth In 2014 [View article]
    Hi Obrienw,

    I'm not sure that's the most representative way of assessing the sustainability of a dividend. You've gone back 3 years. If you look at it that way then I'd agree that the dividend looks very shaky, but the data is not representative of BGCP's recent or current business model or the considerably improved economic environment in which it operates. Earnings are rising and the stock is still reasonably cheap on a price to earnings growth basis. A TTM calculation, or even just the most recent quarter gives you a far greater idea of where the business is right now and how sustainable the dividend is.

    If BGCP had a grotesque balance sheet then the dividend would certainly be in danger, but the NASDAQ deal thoroughly wiped out that problem and then some. I remember at one point last year the company had something like $5.50 per share in cash and its equity was trading below that level, meaning the market had effectively assigned a value of $0 to the entire business. Quite bizarre and clearly a phenomenal value investment opportunity.
    Aug 4, 2014. 10:08 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners Poised For Potential Growth In 2014 [View article]
    What's your methodology for dividend payout ratio, Obrienw?

    I have BGC Partners paying out 0.48c per share, per quarter out of 0.60c per share of earnings. That equates to a 80% payout ratio. Admittedly high, but sustainable on current earnings.
    Aug 3, 2014. 05:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitise: A Buying Opportunity [View article]
    Thanks Nathan. I'd been looking at this name for a while now and today I pulled the trigger.
    Aug 1, 2014. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BGC Partners Poised For Potential Growth In 2014 [View article]
    Trading extremely bullishly now, surely $8 is a formality.
    Jul 24, 2014. 03:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Kodiak Oil & Gas - Price Received In The Whiting Merger Disappoints [View article]
    I was initially very disappointed with the deal when it was announced, I purchased KOG specifically because I felt it was a strong acquisition target. So when the deal was announced and my stock popped just 5% I was very disheartened and felt short-changed. However, 24hrs to process the deal and take a cursory look over our acquirer and I’m a lot more positive. On face value the premium WLL paid is very low, however, it is not beyond the realms of possibility that by Q4 (when the deal actually closes) Whiting’s stock could be well over $100, at the time of writing it has only $14 to achieve that. Should WLL accomplish that price point by Q4 we (KOG shareholders) will indeed get our $17-18 exchange price.

    Ultimately, I think this deal will benefit the shareholders of both companies in the long run. WLL gain access to some of the most valuable acreage in the most prolific shale play in America and substantially boost their flagging production growth whilst KOG gets to enjoy the benefits of scale, a stronger balance sheet, superior technology and better management.
    Jul 15, 2014. 09:54 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Whiting to acquire Kodiak [View news story]
    So should I be selling or holding my KOG after today's news? I'm up 22% in the name as of the time of writing.
    Jul 14, 2014. 10:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
71 Comments
54 Likes