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  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    At least there will be a jobs conference. One problem - nobody in the administration or Congressional leadership has ever managed a private payroll, and their instincts are all in the direction of killing jobs.
    Nov 19 15:35 pm |Rating: +3 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    A comment on the San Francisco Chronicle.
    - They are subject to the forces facing all newspapers. I read the NYT, the Drudge Report, and Seeking Alpha on line. I've kept the WSJ.
    - I've dropped the Chron, and then reinstituted it for local sports, theater, and music coverage. The political slant is so infuriating that I don't have the energy to fight through it. My sense is that the editorial policy has seen it as a good business strategy to cater to the far left - but they have lost most of the moderates, and any credibility.
    - San Francisco has a number of free dailies - the Examiner for the more conservative; the Bay Guardian for the more liberal.
    - It is a shame if the Chronicle just folds. Maybe Nancy Pelosi will get an earmark in the next round of the TARP. There hasn't been a critical article about her in 10 years.

    Feb 25 15:10 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Donald Rumsfeld was rightly abused for some things, but he was right that there are known unknowns as well as unknown unknowns. The housing market should be an easily known unknown. Calculate the housing prices' inflation overt the past 20 years versus trendline - relative to either general inflation or as a % of household income. Then revert to the mean. If markets do not over-correct (a big if, but with government intervention, perhaps not too big), we are about half way there. Then look at the portion of us that are home owners and figure how long it will take to get that back to a historically-sustainab... rate of of 65-67%. At a rate of building 50% below the past decade, with demolitions and population growth, it is a few years. These are knowable unknowns. Plan on two to three years of housing being a drag on the economy - unless government messes it up.
    Nov 20 11:54 am |Rating: +1 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    The selection of the new Treasury Secretary will be momentous as an indicator. The short term problem is getting the financial system going, and minimizing the pending recession; however, the next problem will be the total lack of financial discipline (by the Bush administration, the congress, and the Obama campaign pledges.) Taxes will come in the form of inflation.
    Nov 05 16:33 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    It's nice to see Coke buying in China - Coke has long been a truly international company which happens to have its headquarters in Atlanta. For the rest of it (like the Lehman auction), we continue to sell ourselves to cover our $60 billion per month deficit. Closing that gap should be the primary economic issue for our presidential candidates, not who can give the biggest tax cuts to the most people.
    Sep 03 11:24 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Ambac is the puzzlement to me. After years of boom, it is logical to expect creativity and greed to dominate Wall Street (firms as well as the millions of investors). Fannie and Freddie had to serve stockholders, and were pushed by Congress to be more lax. The ratings agencies exist to measure the risk, but they are paid by the people that they are rating. The place where you would expect caution and skepticism would be the bond insurers. What were they thinking?
    Aug 07 10:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    On Chinese gasoline prices, and the comparison of their new $3.06 to our $4.00, state and local taxes need to be considered. Government tinkering really operates only on the margin in terms of affecting demand. The "problem" is that they are moving toward our standard of living.
    Jun 20 12:31 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    How time have changed - re the Merrill Lynch survey. Stagflation; slowing world economy; heavy in cash; yet also heavy in emerging markets. The "expert practitioners" must really believe that the world economy has reached a point of development where it is better, not worse, than the US economy during downturns.
    Jun 19 11:44 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    For jjason: While it may be possible to teach something about ethics in business school, what is more actionable is a healthy dose of scepticism and a requirement that the referees do their job. In this whole subprime mess, I do not blame the folks who invented and sold CDOs, the fault lies with the folks who bought them, and the rating agencies who have little other purpose than to evaluate what is being bought and sold, yet were AWOL.
    As for Eli - I find your daily summary to be of great value. It provides the flavor of what is going on on Wall Street, kind of like an extended version of David Faber of CNBC. In selecting what to talk about and what not, you give us a background against which to do further analysis, or to discard the flim flam stuff. Thanks so much.
    RightinSanFrancisco.co...
    Jun 11 11:26 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    Another great summary of factoids in the battle between fear and greed. Fear wins today - the $1.7 T Q1 loss in household assets, a new view of construction loan exposure, and a 5.5% unemployment rate (reported elsewhere). Oil surging. oy vey!!!
    RightinSanFrancisco.co...
    Jun 06 11:02 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Must-Know News [View article]
    It certainly looks as if the cards played by the Fed have prevented a serious recession in the real economy (that's ex-banking and housing) - factory orders up; productivity up; new jobless claims down; stock market OK; etc. But the second part of the mandate, dealing with inflation, will be much more difficult in that its roots lie in the balance of trade, US over-consumption, the declining dollar, and things which would call for people cutting back at a time when we are moving toward healthcare for all, more money for education, significant environmental controls, etc. Can anybody say "Jimmy Carter?"
    RightinSanFrancisco. com
    Jun 05 11:20 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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