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Tas 2010

Tas 2010
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  • Oil Doomsayers Were Wrong In 2009: 4 Reasons Why They Are Wrong Now [View article]
    As for reason #3, did you include the depletion rate in your supply numbers? An increase in demand of 700k, with flat supply still requires 4.5 million new barrels brought online.

    That's the rub. Depletion never sleeps....
    Jan 3, 2015. 11:18 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Martin Armstrong Warns Oil To Retest $35-$31 Level [View article]

    Your last statement is my belief as well. $18 trillion in debt that not only can never be paid back, it can't possibly stay at $18 trillion. My guess is we'll be at $25 trillion by 2020.

    Debt has a way of catching up with people and when it does it always happens very quick. This debt will ultimately matter to someone, someday. Until then we can print to our hearts content.

    What I find most curious about the oil markets is that the Saudi's actually load real oil onto tankers, ship that oil to the USA where someone with a printing press is cranking out dollars like there is no tomorrow to pay for the oil. Come up short? Hang on, I can print another $100 million while you wait. Simplistic yes. Not far from reality though.
    Dec 31, 2014. 04:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Martin Armstrong Warns Oil To Retest $35-$31 Level [View article]
    Anything is possible. My guess is if we see a retest at $31, oil will be the least of our problems. Mexico implodes at $31. The rush from the border would be unlike anything we've ever seen in our lifetimes. The Middle East melts down. Russia falls apart. Finally, our energy market in the US dies under a mountain of debt.

    I don't doubt Mr Armstrong is right. I pray he is wrong.
    Dec 31, 2014. 07:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price Crisis: What Is The Economic Cost To The U.S.? [View article]
    The cure for low prices is low prices. This will be very short lived. Oil prices will climb quickly back to a level where producers can make a profit.

    I'm not a geologist, however, let's hope our pricing model in the paper oil markets doesn't create a crisis in the future physical market by making extraction uneconomic at any price.
    Dec 27, 2014. 07:12 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Connecting The Dots - Oil And Accelerating Growth [View article]
    Part of our over supplied market has come from Obama's decision to tap the SPR for 35,000,000 barrels. I do not understand why the government is not adding this oil back to the SPR at these multi year low prices.
    Dec 27, 2014. 02:29 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bakken New Wells Producing Less Confirmed [View instapost]

    I've always followed your work closely and this is a great piece of writing. To read the mainstream press, the trends in production will continue to increase. However, the reality is that these trends are coming to an end much sooner than most expected.

    The trend is unsustainable. Drop the price, increase service on their debt, produce more, rinse and repeat until the drilling stops, the declines set it and the party starts to wind down.
    Dec 22, 2014. 10:59 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crashes In The Eye Of The Storm [View article]

    Always enjoy your posts. What's your thought on silver in this deflationary storm?


    Dec 15, 2014. 08:55 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • OPEC And The Logic Of Low Oil Prices [View article]
    OPEC oil imports into the USA have dropped significantly in recent years as shale production has increased. OPEC has found other customers for their oil. Let's hope this shale thing has LONG legs. Should production begin to fall, not sure OPEC imports will reassert themselves at the expense of current customers like China.

    That could be a real problem in the next few years.
    Nov 24, 2014. 09:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Plunging Oil Prices Hurting The Market? [View article]
    Interesting oil stats from EIA:

    Storage 2013 388.5 million barrels : Price $93.84
    Storage 2014 381.1 million barrels : Price $75.82

    Days of supply 2013 25.5
    Days of supply 2014 24.5

    Less oil, fewer days of supply, much lower price. Looks like the oil glut was LAST year.
    Nov 20, 2014. 08:44 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Pan American Silver Earnings [View article]
    Nice comparison!! And yes that satisfies my challenge. I didn't realize the coffee producers were getting killed.
    Nov 16, 2014. 01:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • JPMorgan settles $681M self-dealing Texas Shale Trust case - Bloomberg [View news story]
    Gotta love JPM. Has any company, ever, paid more fines for screwing people?
    Nov 15, 2014. 06:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Update: Pan American Silver Earnings [View article]
    Crazy markets indeed. US Mint can't keep up with demand that is near record levels, but the miners are selling silver with prices at multi year lows. Not sure how or when this ends, but the trend is unsustainable. Name me another product that has record demand, but the manufactures/producers are losing money hand over fist. iPhones have record demand, but Apple looks to be doing ok.

    Nov 15, 2014. 06:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still Lower Prices Ahead For Oil? [View article]
    Oil looks like it wants to test $70. I'm on the sidelines, waiting. I don't see this slump lasting long into 2015. The shale boys will keep producing, but new wells will start to drop. That's my signal to go long USO.

    Thanks for the article!!

    Nov 15, 2014. 06:07 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • To Understand The Oil Price Drop, One May Wish To Look At The Term Structure [View article]
    I don't agree that a low oil price, due to a stronger dollar is a problem for Russia, Saudi, etc. They are selling their oil for strong dollars that can be used to buy non dollar denominated products in countries with weak currencies. Saudis need to buy Toyota cars priced in yen to get max value for the oil they sell in dollars.

    Just my opinion.

    Nov 15, 2014. 04:41 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Silver Is Getting Scarce In Shanghai [View article]
    What's truly remarkable is the numbers shown on these charts. The USA produces some 30+ million ounces per year of silver. ASE coins account for all that and more leaving the USA as an importer of silver. China has blown through 90% of it's silver inventory on the SHFE in just over a year. My question then is where do they buy in such quantities as to rebuild their silver stocks? The USA is buying in the same international markets as is China and yet the price continues to drop.

    Things are going to get very interesting very soon.
    Sep 8, 2014. 11:45 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment