Vienna

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

My personal summary: You Americans are really able to screw up everything, and the world is really glad that you are collapsing, yes you are are all goint to tell me that we are too and that the states is doing far better than the rest, you are just to stupid to understand that the world is running out of ressources, and all you think of is maximization of personal spending to move your fat asses from a to b.

IMF Offers Cautious Optimism for 2010 Recovery

What always stunns me are the optimistic US values. DO we really believe that the US is doing better than Europe. I have heard this many times over the last 25 years in many economic sectors. It often tunred out that Europe was doing better.
So if all the Data I am reading over the last 12 month is true, how could you belive that the US was only doing -2,6%.

Random Walk Down What Is Definitely Not Wall Street

I stay in Slovakia in a town called Trencin. It is not quite that bad here, but surely do do find many unfinished houses, and I know of ohne new shopping center, where 18 out 20 strores are empty. Last year three quarter where occupied.
The problem here is that they don't have their own brand, products; can't really compete with highly automated manufacturing, but are still to expensive in comparison with China/India CI competition.
Gladly I can give you more info on the situation here.
I used to work for one of the largest coupon state privatization companies, so I have some insight here.

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

That is true, the problem is that we have been fixed to the growth curve, if this does not go up, no matter how high you are people will consider doomed.
E.g. Keep the population in the US stable, but it won't, cause you need growth, and one day you wake up, and polulation is as dense as in Europe, and guess what the people say here, we need growth.
Our ability to improve is also going to be our dooms fate.


On Jul 14 03:23 AM ariesl wrote:

> Isn't the real problem overpopulation? I believe it is. Unfortunately,
> even though it's a problem that should be simple to solve, we probably
> won't. That's because of most of the world's peoples beliefs in religion
> and/or cultural traditions. I fear we probably are doomed to see
> starvation and disease do the job of controling the Earth's swelling
> population. The attendant suffering of that outcome is a far greater
> sin than birth control or even abortion (though I'm no fan of the
> latter personally).
>
> If you look closely at China's success over the last 15 years you
> will see that it happened after the Government implemented their
> draconian but effective population control laws. It's too bad it
> can only be done in a totalitarian country because the results are
> spectacular. Compare the Chinese people's lives today with the 1980's
> when hundreds of millions were starving and there was no wealth or
> even a middle class. Compare their lives today with the people of
> Africa, the Middle East, or large parts of South America.
>
> It is quite easy to have great faith in God (your choice) and still
> understand that we individually decide whether to have children or
> not.
>
> No matter what your political leanings are, it's obvious that with
> a billion or two fewer people on the planet, peak oil, global warming,
> climate change, large scale extinctions of species, wars and starvation
> in the third world would be way smaller, or even nonexistant, problems!

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

I would also sugegst reading this article from Mr. Quinn
seekingalpha.com/artic...

Winter's Coming for the Boomers: Part 2

I would like to give an alternative point of view.
Lets say we do not have peak of anything, we still live in a world of limited resources, so if we don't peak now we will peak some time in future.
If we want to learn from the crisis, we should learn that it might not be wise to push things to the dead end, but rather find a sustainable solution in time.
So lets mike it time now, and start usign alternative methods, rather dan using existing sources to the possible dead end, and leave nothing for your own children, because that is where we are heading if peaopel are to lasy and greedy to put in the effort to implement alternate energy, yes it might be more expensive, but then just don't use as much, or invest in high-tech, less energy consuming products, which again require more technology.
There is always a other way, don't just go ahead in the way that has been.

The Tellurium Supply Conjecture and the Future of First Solar

The only thing I would like to post, is that man people read articles and some sound credible, and others sound like wiseacres.
I have read too many articles of people convincing others of investment of toxic assests with a typical voice that sounds like yours.

So I do not believe in what you comment here either. If you like to comment, and consider you have the knowledge then post it in a communicative way, otherwise you are not credible in what you arite either, even if you might be a great pundit.


On Jul 12 03:04 PM ECD Fan wrote:

> To Mr. Lifton: A small lesson in economics: In a world of infinite
> resources, prices will be close to zero. In a world of limited resources,
> higher prices will lead to higher capex and R&D, creating new
> technologies and extraction methods that will lower costs and increase
> both probable and proven reserves. We did not run out of oil last
> year. And neither did we 30 years ago. And won't in the next 30 years.
> Same with tellurium.
>
> To yellowboard: Phase-change memory is a techno-Ponzi. It was "invented"
> 40 years ago by the Charlatan Extraordinaire. Nobody has been able
> to commercialize it after all these years and millions wasted. NASA
> looked at the BAE's 4Mbit monstrosity (supposedly commercial since
> 2006), and found that the thing can't even remember the bits right.
> And Numonyx has no commercial product, despite their claims (if they
> did, where is the public datasheet?). A certain team within Samsung
> is still feeding the press false stories about their "perfect RAM."
> You can learn more about the techno-Ponzi here:
>
> ecdfan.blogspot.com/20...
>
>
> To Vienna: If you don't know, why are commenting? I suggest you learn
> first.

The Tellurium Supply Conjecture and the Future of First Solar

I do not know about rare earth, but what you write make sense, and all statement are accompanied with an explanation about the possibility and credibility of the data and then interpreted, as far this is possible to find out through sources available, which we all know vary highly.

ECD FAn if probably a shill, otherwise he would not be using the I know better bullshit articulation.

On Jul 12 09:03 AM Jack Lifton wrote:

> It's amazing to me how the limitations of the amount of natural resources

China Blows a Double Bubble

thanks for your reply,
I have lived in the states for 9 month and have audited over 20 factories all over the states within the last few years. I must say that I have met many people who where very open to new procedures. Besides that I have been learning Chinese and speak it quite well, been there since 1994.
What I want to say, is probably the same that you mentioned. When evaluating a system, you need to take into account the parameters and look into them deeply, without going back to the typical old myth and evaluating a systems this way. What typically is done, and what is completely distracting are the following arguments,

they are communists, no free market like in the US, they don't report correctly ....... e.g. in Michigan factories no argument was ever considered, since they where the inventors of production line manufacturing . DOT

People have to start looking over the plate.


On Jul 12 11:27 AM coreopsis wrote:

> Sadly, Vienna, I must counsel you: you cannot reason with most Americans.
> They live in an island (albeit a very large one) which is quite impervious
> to serious understanding. They work among, and go home to other,
> Americans. This is a tremendous liability when you consider that
> most of the rest of the world is increasing its understanding of
> what is valuable and effective from many systems around the world.
>
>
> In less than a decade, the US has brought us the Internet bubble,
> Enron, MCI, and the latest incarnation of delusion: AIG, Citibank,
> Fannie Mae, etc. The future of the globe must move away from the
> US to a rebalance with multiple parties, including the EU, the BRICs,
> and other emerging nations.
>
> 'Le roi est mort, vive le Roi!'

Austrian School of Economics Is on the Rise

In Austria w do have a overall spending on "socialistic" issues of approximately 50% of income. This includes pension insurance, medical insurance, unemployment insurance, tax and other further small payment like subway tax etc.
Average taxation is approx. 30% due to progressive taxation.
This is probably the amount that is required to keep a system running sustainably. As we can see in the US many public goods have not maintained, and these will get back at you, due to lack of investment of private companies. Roads, Power grid, School ...

Last Quarter Is Going to Be Hard to Beat

Still running after the reports. I do find it quite hard to believe that anyone could take this seriously after following all the reports that have been posted lately.
There are just too many negative signs out there as to keep the party running.
The compound interest system needs a reset once in a while.

China Blows a Double Bubble

I agree with this,
when I was in the states I have been lectures on the great China thing. Many people quoted statistics, but used the PPP ones. In the same sentence they believed China would buy US stuff. What they would not understand, that the PPP uses chinese prices, but they will not be able to buy US stuff using nominal values, and if then only US stuff produced in China, where the bosses in US will recieve their payments. The avarage citizen in the US will not have too much benefit of this, for some time to come.
In future we all have to learn to live with less.


On Jul 11 01:17 PM Michael Clark wrote:

> Actually, Hutton's entire article is worth reading, especially by
> those who think China is going to lead the world back to affluence.
>
>
> www.guardian.co.uk/wor...

China Blows a Double Bubble

Your comment is very detailed, but please consider,

> Careful what you believe about China. They tell us what they want
> us to believe.
We believe that the US also tells us and their citzens what they want

> China is still a communist country
Stop riding the communist thing, that was 1950, it does not matter in fact if your capitalist or communist, the US has 2 parties opposed to one chinese, that both do the same, so where is the difference.

> It was explained to me by a Chinese national: 'When a Chinese
> business takes out a loan from the bank, 50% of the loan is
> earmarked for bribes.' In other words, 50% of the loan is non-
> performing from its inception
I wonder how much corruption is going on in the US, these bonuses, the wars and the rest that seems to be quite well nown.

So after you have lectured the world on so many things, I will give you one good suggestion,
Sweep before your own door (a German saying)

On Jul 11 03:54 AM Michael Clark wrote:

> Careful what you believe about China. They tell us what they want
> us to believe.
>
> have a gut feeling that China's 'green shoots' may not be green at
> all. I did read about huge increases in automobile sales. And I watch
> Chinese stock indexes rise without looking back for the last few
> months. But there is something about China I just don't trust. China
> is still a communist country. China (like all Asian countries) is
> more concerned about appearances that with realities, more concerned
> about what the neighbor is saying and thinking. I've been told that
> 'face' is so important in Asia, that an Asian would rather dresss
> well and have nothing in his pocket than dress poorly and have money
> in his pocket.
>
> During the Vietnam War, Americans would ask ally South Vietnamese
> officers and intelligence operatives about existing conditions on
> the ground; the response was always positive. It was either the need
> to maintain 'face' -- that is, put a good face on everything -- or
> because the South Vietnamese officials felt it would be rude to tell
> the Americans the truth if they thought they didn't want to hear
> the truth. It was hugely frustrating for Americans who live to fix
> the negatives to never hear any negatives from their allies. Eventually,
> the Americans stopped asking their allies anything, except about
> things that didn't matter, like the weather.
>
> In my mind, the whole Asian economic miracle (China and Vietnam,
> etc.) of the last decade is a bubble of illusion waiting to break.
> Interesting that I should come across an article on the web this
> week (DNA Read the World) by Venkatesan Vembu where the writer calls
> into question the Chinese recovery:
>
> Increasingly, economy watchers are beginning to believe falsehood
> could go a step beyond: China's GDP numbers. Ever since the official
> Chinese statistical agency announced earlier this year that the country's
> GDP grew 6.1% in the first quarter of 2009, there have been murmurs
> of scepticism about the authenticity of those figures. A few have
> observed that the GDP data are inconsistent with other data, such
> as weak power production.
> Those murmurs have in recent weeks turned into a high-decibel chorus
> that is beginning to openly rubbish the validity of the official
> numbers.
> "The Q1 6.1% GDP outturn is simply a lie," notes Albert Edwards,
> chief global strategist, Societe Generale. "It helps explain why
> the Chinese data is derided by so many economic commentators."<br/&...
> prices worldwide have surged in recent weeks on the hopes of a robust
> V-shaped revival in the Chinese economy. But Edwards, who had rightly
> called the Malaysian economic crisis of 1997 and the dotcom bust
> of 2000, believes that "to the extent that the renewed surge in commodities
> and the metals and mining sectors are based on the Chinese growth
> miracle, the markets are relying on a combination of hype, lies and
> wishful thinking."
> Edwards isn't alone in questioning the validity of the official data.
> Last month, the International Energy Agency (seekingalpha.com/symbo...)
> observed that China's first-quarter GDP data "does not tally with
> oil demand data, which contracted by 3.5% year on year." One explanation
> for this, IEA analysts reasoned, "is simply that real GDP data are
> not accurate, and therefore should not be taken at face value."<br/>Simu...
> analysts at Lombard Street Research, a London-based economic consultancy,
> too argued that the 6.1% GDP growth figure was inconsistent with
> the 20% decline in trade volumes over the same period, because it
> would have required domestic demand to expand by 9% in real terms.
> Using official nominal annual growth rates for GDP and consumption
> for the first quarter, and consumer and fixed investment price indices
> as deflators for consumer spending and investment, respectively,
> Lombard analysts claimed that domestic demand expanded at most by
> 2% year on year in real terms.
> They therefore concluded that real GDP growth in the first quarter
> was probably slightly negative or nil at best, and even in the fourth
> quarter of 2008, real growth was likely negative or flat. "If so,
> the last two quarters would effectively signal, from a Chinese perspective,
> a recession of a rare magnitude."
> China's official statistical agency, the National Bureau of Statistics,
> responded to IEA's scepticism with a stern rap on the knuckles. "It
> is regrettable that the point of view in the... article is groundless,"
> a notice on its website said.
> "We believe that, for an international organisation, this approach
> lacks seriousness.""
>
> Even economists who point to anecdotal evidence of China's recovery
> concede that interpreting official Chinese data is problematic.<br/>...
> to understand China's GDP data is always a nightmare for professional
> China economists," observes Credit Suisse chief regional economist
> Dong Tao. "Since I joined this industry 14 years ago, I've had this
> trouble, I still have this trouble, and I suspect I will continue
> to have this trouble."
> He points out that there is abundant anecdotal evidence of a "phenomenal
> improvement" in China's economy over the previous quarter too. "Go
> to restaurants, talk to real estate agents, count the number of shipping
> containers at terminals, see the number of cars being sold... I believe
> in my eyes."
> The plain-speaking Edwards, however, argues that "if the bubble of
> belief in China's medium-term growth prospects finally bursts, it
> will have huge investment implications."
> It is all too easy, he reckons, for investors to buy into "beguiling
> growth stories, which are in fact utter nonsense." He concedes that
> China's mammoth 4 trillion yuan stimulus has had a beneficial effect
> on economic activity this year, but says that he still questions
> the "quaint notion the markets now seem to have that the Chinese
> economy can grow at a respectable rate when the rest of the world
> is in a deep recession."
> The "bullish group think on China is just as vulnerable to massive
> disappointment as any other extreme of bubble nonsense I have seen
> over the last two decades," says Edwards. "The fall to earth will
> be equally shocking."
>
> dnaindia.com/money/rep...
>
>
> This week I also read that an official Chinese banking committee
> oveersight member admitted by over 50% of the loans connected to
> the government's massive stimulus program had been spent to purchase
> shares in China's stock markets and for purchase of Chinese houses
> and land. I didn't realize the stock market and the housing markets
> were 'infrastructure' plays. If stocks correct, and Chinese property
> markets continue to decline, these loans might quickly add to the
> problem Chinese banks have almost always had with non-performing
> loans.
>
> It was explained to me by a Chinese national: 'When a Chinese business
> takes out a loan from the bank, 50% of the loan is earmarked for
> bribes.' In other words, 50% of the loan is non-performing from its
> inception.
>
> Yesterday, China reported that exports fell for an eighth month,
> falling 21.4%, after a 26.4% drop in May. Imports also declined,
> but by less than the estimated 13.2%. 'Green shoots' anyone? Anyone?
>
>
> Sun Mingchun, Chief China Economist at Nomura Holdings was the first
> to stand up and cheer the report: 'There is light at the end of the
> tunnel,' Mingchun (actually) said. "The worst for exports will soon
> be over."
>
> Premier Wen Jiabao, however, was not so quick to jump up and down
> and smile. He said the foundations for an economic recovery were
> "not yet solid" and pledged to continue a pro-active fiscal policy
> and moderately loose monetary policy
>
> Exports to the U.S. fell 16.9 percent in the first half of 2009 from
> a year earlier, the customs bureau reported. Shipments to the European
> Union declined 24.5 percent.
>
> I won't even get in to the bloody riots that have swept through China
> over the last year, the most recent being a mix of have-not Uigurs
> (Chinese Turkish-language Muslims) and have (Han Chinese) in the
> northwest of China, which left 100 dead, 1000 injured and 1500 arrested.
> One of the targets of the riot was a new car showroom that left 65
> new cars burned and smashed.
>
> Economic-inspired riots have swept Chinese provinces for the last
> year -- and Chinese officials are concerned about more civil unrest.
> Anecdotal evidence has been bandied about the internet since 2005
> that agents of the Chinese government (and independent rich Chinese)
> are buying U.S. foreclosed houses into which they might move their
> families if civil unrest were to topple the Chinese government or
> if the boom might turn to bust.

Beginning of Another Big Market Decline? Not Quite

What is truely missing is the intuitive approach. We all know that all these charts don't tell you nothing. It describes the historical pattern.

I think there are 20+ charts telling you something else, you just need to find the graphs you like to find to approve your own estimates.

So if people now tell me that you need to be a good analyst and do your homework, how about this:

"recent price decline does not suggest any change in the upward trend of oil prices"

Why should any decline not suggest any change upward ....

One always needs to analyse sentences, sometimes they are packed in great articles, and everybody tends to just take it as given.

I Was Wrong About GM Bankruptcy

One thing that you should always keep in mind, that when companies restart, it goes into hype and all are celebrating the new start, fine.
But don't forget, all the old minds and habits are still there. I have seen this in CEE many times, old state companies that where taken private in the 1990's still work in their old fashion, due to management, development, production etc. still working according to their habits. It takes generations for change, and not just a few weeks.
Keep good track on what is going on, since a few years ahead you might see GM in the news again. And please don't tell me the US is significantly different in this. I have read a lot about the history of GM, Unions, management etc.