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  • Fed's Powell: 50/50 chance of September hike [View news story]
    And the rest of the dot-plot just looks like an acid trip:

    Does anyone outside the FOMC honestly see four percent by next year? FOUR? You have to hope that someone is just having a laugh, or voting strategically to move the average value. Cause four percent is straight out of Cloud-Cuckoo-Land.
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:09 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Fed's Powell: 50/50 chance of September hike [View news story]
    Two hikes by the end of the year seem unlikely, but I would take even money on a single 25-point hike by then.
    Jun 23, 2015. 02:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Why Stocks Are Not 'Cheap Relative To Bonds' [View article]
    As a fund manager, he's had some good years, some lousy years, and some average years. Overall, he's performed almost (but not quite) as well as a simple S&P 500 index fund.

    This turns out to be a pretty common story!

    The moral of the story is to try to have your very good years first--then you're still rich and well-regarded when your luck turns sour. If you have your bad years first, then you're just another bum.
    Jun 10, 2015. 09:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Why Stocks Are Not 'Cheap Relative To Bonds' [View article]
    "So, what happened in late-2008?"

    You panicked. That's what happened in late 2008. So you locked your forecasting model in the basement and tortured it until it stopped saying "buy" and started saying "Sell! Hedge! Whatever you want! Just stop hurting me!"

    And now you've got something called "overlays" and "ensemble methods," which basically means you've added enough knobs and dials to your model so that you can tune it to say whatever you want. Which of course means it's not a model of anything except your own intuitive read of the market.

    That's fine, I guess--it's how most fund managers ply their trade. But have the decency to stop lecturing us about "discipline" in investing.
    Jun 8, 2015. 10:29 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    Unskew the payrolls!
    Jun 5, 2015. 10:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Jobs up 280K in May; UE rate ticks higher [View news story]
    Fifty six straight months of payroll increases...3.3 million more jobs than the 2008 peak. You could do worse.
    Jun 5, 2015. 09:42 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Initial Jobless Claims [View news story]
    Yeah, that Rick Santelli has really been nailing it for the past five years, hasn't he?

    If you think 282 is indicative of a "weak" job market, I wonder what you think a good number is.
    May 28, 2015. 09:41 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Recognizing The Risks To Financial Stability [View article]
    For one thing, she said valuations were "quite high," not "stocks are overvalued," and that's a pretty important difference. I don't know when you're talking about as "not too long ago," but the S&P 500 is up about 10% from one year ago and about 20% from two years can you think of any reasons beyond lack of integrity why she might have a different sense of market valuation today?
    May 12, 2015. 01:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Fair Value On The S&P 500 Has 3 Digits [View article]
    The flagship Hussman fund is down 16 percent in the last two years alone. How exactly is this supposed to jibe with the claim that he's "admitted [his] stumbles, and...addressed them?"

    He can blame his "two data sets," or whatever, on missing the rally five years ago. Fine. But all his big losses have come _since_ his super-duper "ensemble methods" were supposedly perfected.

    In fact, we know that "ensemble methods" is actually shorthand for "torture the algorithms until they stop saying 'buy' and agree with my gut instinct to short the market." One of history's great mysteries is how well HSGFX would be doing today if John Hussman really did have this "discipline" he keeps lecturing us about--if he had just stayed with his original model from 2009 to the present.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:17 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Fair Value On The S&P 500 Has 3 Digits [View article]
    It's almost 20 years since Japan was over 1%. To think that we could stay below 1% another three years is perfectly reasonable--and even more likely if, like Hussman, you think the market is due for a crash. There's good reason to think the developed world has entered a persistent very low rate environment. Japan got there first, but they may be showing the future for all of us.
    Apr 27, 2015. 03:46 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Profit Margins - Is The Ladder Starting To Snap? [View article]
    It would take more time than I care to invest, but if I think the true story of Hussman Funds, if you collate all his market comments and read between the lines a bit, is that each of his "two data sets" were telling him to buy at various points, but he just didn't like the message, so he kept fine tuning his "ensemble methods" until they gave him the answer he wanted.

    And then he preaches about "discipline."

    Diversify, index, rebalance. And never stop saving. That's the discipline you want.
    Apr 21, 2015. 09:30 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Extremes In Every Pendulum [View article]
    This is somewhat true, in that there will be a terrible market crash again _someday_, and therefore the time to it is getting closer, by simple logical necessity. Whether that crash is impending--maybe. I don't know. I have my doubts. And whether the man who wrote "Enter: the Blindside Recession" in two thousand TWELVE can be considered "right" because he called twenty of the last one bull markets...
    Mar 16, 2015. 01:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Plan To Exit Stocks Within The Next 8 Years? Exit Now [View article]
    Not really. His individual stock picks blew away the S&P from 2000 to 2002--in that they were flat while the market crashed. Since then, his unhedged portfolio has basically tracked the market as a whole: doubling from 2003 to 2007, losing half in the crash, then a bit bitter than tripling from 2009 to the present. Just like the S&P 500. Hussman has an underserved reputation as a stock picker because he started out with two very good years, but it is twelve years now since his equity portfolio has outperformed the market.
    Mar 5, 2015. 12:21 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla: Bonfire Of The Money Printers' Vanities [View article]
    I think there was a fact or two in there, but it's honestly hard to sift through all the sneering and name-calling to get to them. But I do tend to figure that if an analyst has the facts, he leads with the facts.
    Feb 20, 2015. 02:44 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • John Hussman: Market Action Suggests Abrupt Slowing In Global Economic Activity [View article]
    Let's take a walk down memory lane with Hussman's June 25, 2012 Market Comment: "Enter, the Blindside Recession"

    "In recent months, our measures of leading economic pressures have indicated the likelihood of an oncoming U.S. recession..."

    THAT is why we call him a stopped clock. Sooner or later, the U.S. will have another recession...and John Hussman's been calling it for the last two and a half years, and counting.
    Feb 7, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment