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m101

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  • BlackBerry Q1 Earnings: The Devil Will Be In The Details [View article]
    @Stephen. I was curious about the MDM rev opportunity myself yesterday. I had read somewhere that in the future, the # of devices purchased by an employee and used for work will grow to 200M globally. At $99/user/year this equates to $20B/year. At 10% of this and at 60% discount (no idea if this is standard for bb) this equates to $800M/year. Owning 30% of the MDM market @ 30% discount = $4.2B.

    This does not include the # of non-bb employer purchased devices which could also be non bb and be managed by BES10.

    IF this is possible it will take a year or 2 + to approach this level but interesting consideration nonetheless.
    Jun 26 12:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Throwing In The Towel On My BlackBerry Shares [View article]
    I think it's important to use all data when making investment decisions, hard numbers absolutely, but I think gut feel re product quality and adoption is also important.

    That said, the business user the author represents would throw an SG4 or iphone5 aside by midday based on my experience (or at least wish he had something better).

    iPhone has a very poor typing experience. The subset of users the author is speaking for will opt for a better typing experience assuming they are emailing clients, other leaders and vendors in industry, etc and have little time to do so. (and I don't mean voice to text which can't be used in meetings, loud places, while their family is sleeping, etc)

    SG4. I watched a contractor fumble with his SG4 as he tried to show me his portfolio of work. large images would not load - froze the device and then if someone called at the same time it crashed the device. He was finally able to open this elusive email after 2 crashes to show me but again, serious business users will not waste their time with this. Will they fix this, yes, but the priority for these users is business first, entertainment 2nd.

    Won`t go into detail re superior security of bb, physical qwerty, outlook sync, Balance, etc as the other reasons the author is missing a lot of the core business user`s needs.

    Apps. agree more quality apps will be great but still 2nd pri over core business needs. We are getting nanny cams this summer and the app is avail on android or iphone. Lucky I know how to sideload. That said i would much prefer a bb10 native app as I don't trust android at all with streaming video of my family, I will be ok with a reputable android app sideloaded onto our secure bbs.

    That said, he is right re BB needing to focus and to continue listening and well. They have done with 10.1 and 102 looks great. BB also needs to be more appl like wrt PR. when asked about apps the answer needs to focus on huge improvements to dev experience, android ports being an option for many, very excited about the growing interest and delivery of apps every day! not - its up to the vendors not us... many have responded well, 1 guy did not in my experience. The reality is, I have seen that the company is indeed listening.
    Jun 25 10:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Throwing In The Towel On My BlackBerry Shares [View article]
    Interestingly enough, the best new feature I have been enjoying w/ bb10 is related to email sync. When you type an email in outlook on your laptop, have to leave your desk mid-sentence, there is a draft of the email waiting for you on your blackberry in the hub. brilliant. not sure if exclusive to bb but loving it.

    We are a large ent. and email setup is all taken care of for us so not sure about the sync issues the author is referring to but email arrives in my bb before my laptop and syncs perfectly upon reading etc for both my outlook and hotmail.

    If you need to find something (starbucks) prob best to use google search/maps or similar, no? So you can then get directions to it as well if needed? I know there are stock apps out there but I just use google or yahoo finance (website). The web is very fast in bb10, lighting fast on LTE. That said, sounds like "Stocks" is a favored app, will need to check out.

    Re trackpad, I am using a z10 so getting used to the little edit bubble but it is an area bb needs to continue challenging themselves on and making better w/ every release.
    Jun 24 04:03 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
    You can rent movies and shows on bbworld. I personally only buy music and apps/games on bbworld, We try to watch a movie once a week but it's on the big screen with a bowl of popcorn.
    Jun 16 10:54 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Prepare To Profit From BlackBerry Q1 2014 Earnings [View article]
    @System yes I have, and you're right, not every existing sub will stay. One way to label that phenomenon is churn. ... however, as you know, new bb customers are also joining or re-joining given the quality of the bb10 devices/OS.

    Every business manages revenue/customer churn vs. new/regained customer acquisition. From reports I have seen, bb has already gone back to state of growth (more new/regained customers than lost/churn) in markets like UK and CA. The US will be a tougher market but believe Q10 will help stabilize their state there.

    Many large ent. will upgrade to bb10 given how easy it is to stay w/ what they already have in place, given its reputation as the most secure device/framework and given the devices themselves are now close to or better that what is being offered to the consumer not to mention the rumors of additional devices coming later this year and beyond to keep your workforce productive and entertained off the clock.

    There is also a very good opportunity for bb to mange multi device environments allowing to obtain revenue without having to have their devices in place. This is completely new revenue for them.
    Jun 16 07:42 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry: Time To Throw In The Towel? [View article]
    David, if you have made it this far you have made it through the toughest times IMO. Mid last year the short view was warranted. Would they run out of cash, would they be able to ship bb10, would the product be any good if it saw the overhead lights of a retail store.

    Now that they have cash under control, bb10 launched with their 2 core devices w/ great reviews, improving brand awareness and perception, the company is now able to focus on other areas like MDM, launching additional devices for mid-entry level, continuing their revenue growth from apps/games/entertainment as more and more locked down bb7 users come to bb10, etc.

    They are also able to start looking 2 steps away i.e. cross platform bbm, bbm channels, etc.

    This is likely a very good entry point if you are a medium-long term investor.
    May 30 09:23 AM | 12 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BlackBerry Q10 Outsells iPhone 5 And Galaxy S4 In France [View article]
    another view re est of actual % share:

    If the 10 phones mentioned make up 35.5% of sales and there is 0.1 points separating them (3.1%, 3.2%, 3,3%, ...4%) then the Q10 would be at 4%.

    If the 10 phones mentioned make up 55% of sales and 1% separates them (1%, 2%, ...10%) then Q10 would be at 10%.

    I doubt the gaps between each phone is so linear and so close together, i just wanted to be conservative, there are likely smaller gaps at the top and larger towards the middle. So the %share COULD be closer to a series that looked like this: 14% (q10), 12% (#1s4), 9.5%, 6%, 3%,...

    Just another view but wanted to provide some math behind it.
    May 29 01:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software? [View article]
    So just one (albeit biased) user's view.

    For the first time I actually felt that the device was mine when I got my Z10. Getting a new BB from my IT dept in the past was always great but was always a work only device (we were locked down tightly - no apps, no streaming music, no games, web was very slow and controlled by thr proxy so used it in limited amounts, no fun). Now I have my own apps, games, have started building my music collection on it, web is lightening fast adn open so use it all the time, etc.

    So given I actually had MY OWN device for the first time I rushed out to get the screen protector and a BB case. I made sure I didn't drop it in the first month but now I drop it often, no problem.

    I actually like the back cover esp compared to my torch which was a bit of a puzzler to get off. The Z10 case clicks on and off easily. But that said I never see it as I have my case on it at all times. I don't think it's silly to be critical of it as you are just don't agree with your view on importance. I do like the look of the iPhone's back cover but am much happier with the ability to take it off to swap mem in an out. I've also heard samsung's back is quite 'plasticy' but on the plus is removable.
    May 27 02:20 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software? [View article]
    Heinz is extremely careful with cash as he has proven with his balance sheet performance quarter after quarter.

    Building an extra 1million devices would cost somewhere around $400 million wouldn't it? Not as easy as it sounds although very easy to demand it by typing it on your keyboard (that is if you are not using an iphone) :)

    Supply has been introduced to just meet demand I believe he is doing an excellent job controlling cash, getting inventory flowing, launching steadily country by country.

    Very curious to see the numbers in 4 weeks but more interested in their next 2 quarters when many more ent. refreshes are well underway.
    May 27 11:15 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software? [View article]
    Cereal, Microsoft has been making mobile software for well over a decade and have done very poorly until now. Their browser has also struggled and been passed by the likes of chrome. It's not all about size...
    May 27 06:02 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software? [View article]
    Money Investor, I'm sure none taken, most Canadian's already know that stat. Note the ratio of GDP of the US to the Globe is approaching the ratio of Canada's to the US.

    Market share in CA (Canada) was 6% prior to bb10 and is now 13.5%, that's 6 or so weeks in the quarter and only the z10. Things look very promising in CA and globally for BB10, the US will be more of a challenge. And even though it is only 15% or 18% of the global GDP or whatever the # is and only 4.5% of the global population, I think success in the US does carry more weight than success in say Canada.

    That said, the likes of China and more so India are the real markets to target and win a bigger piece of the growing middle class in the coming 2-3 years+.
    May 26 10:38 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • If BlackBerry 10 Fails, Can The Company Survive On Services And Software? [View article]
    I think it's important to use all the info you have access to including your own experiences - but need to take everything with a grain of salt.

    Early on in the Canadian launch I had overheard an iPhone user looking to convert to the Z10 but the store was sold out. Headlines and then BB's Q4 report later supported this with 33% or 50% of bb10 users coming from non bb platforms.

    Like you, I have seen very few Z10s in the wild (I saw 1 today actually, I think the 3rd I have seen out there - other than the other pilot testers at the office) but then saw this re bb market share in CA. http://bit.ly/14xAvqP

    One thing to remember is that even if BB sells 1 z10 of say every 40 phones sold, it is going to take approx 2 years in the US (3 years in CA) for every 1 of 40 people to have a Z10. i.e. 1 of 40 sales in month #1 translates to 1 in 1000 people owning a Z10, after month #2, 1 in 500 and so on.

    Add the Q, and add enterprise sign-offs occurring throughout the year and you will start to see more and more Z10s, Q10s.
    May 26 07:10 PM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another BlackBerry Catalyst - Services [View article]
    Cereal, a good portion of apps can be substituted for a Web based version i.e. http but that has not stopped the app craze from happening. Smaller screens make apps much easier to use over traditional sites. As html5 grows and more and more mobile versions of sites become available the app craze may/will slow down (consider how many apps you have on your home PC, "most everything is on the web")

    Sending money to friends yes can be done via interact email but working 'send money' into an action on a BBM menu will greatly improve ease of use and hence usage. Cost per transaction will also be important in a potential user's decision.
    May 26 09:21 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another BlackBerry Catalyst - Services [View article]
    Yongzhou, correct samsung will outsell bb globally this year. No, bb is not losing money. Yes BB devices not visible on sites, here are a few for you:

    1) UK - http://www.o2.co.uk

    2) CA - Q10 is 1st phone on Rogers: http://roge.rs/10wtUKp

    3) US - Z10 is in the picture on 1st screen on ATT US: http://bit.ly/1779Ru3

    4) Dubai - Q10 in the banner, Z10 on the home page http://bit.ly/10wtV0E

    I would be concerned if BB was spending all their money to be on all splash screens. Enterprise is still needs to be their primary target (lower hanging fruit) and i see more effort on TV and in store ads/banners which is helping spread awareness of the changing brand.
    May 25 02:55 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Another BlackBerry Catalyst - Services [View article]
    When I started trading bb back in Nov, I told my parents to keep away (they are retired, every penny saved is income for them now). Given the successful execution over the past 6 months, quality of the products, initial #s i'm seeing, speed to get patches out to users, etc I more recently suggested they can start looking at it now (but to wait a bit longer - yes i know they miss the boat).

    When explaining the short position/view, which I thought they would not fully get, they asked 'well, how does the broker who lends the shares to the seller guarantee they will get back the $ if/when the seller is forced to buy back)? 1) They absolutely got it and 2) i did not have an answer for them.

    I assume there are other shares the broker holds as collateral? With such low cost (relative to buying the stock) one could really leverage themselves shorting if they so choose to. The system needs to force the purchase when triggered which would be at multiples of the initial cost of shorting (esp if you shorted further with $ you received from shorting). Sorry, not an investment guy, if one cares to explain (or ref a good site) would be very interested to understand how the broker guarantees the position.
    May 25 02:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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