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rlbeard

rlbeard
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  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Don't Count It Out Just Yet [View article]
    my question to you, crl, is did you forsee the oil crisis and if so how many MLPs did you short. If none then I would guess you didnt see it coming either. first off on the new money agreement, they were already on a loan with the banks and had they not done this they would have had to sell assets in a distressed market and had thier loan rate most likely exceed the 9% they are paying. There are a lot of businesses paying a lot more than 9% right now, that is a decent rate, if you dont believe it look at the loans that the BDCs are making.
    Apr 2, 2015. 09:25 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Cuts Distribution Again, Why I'm Sticking With Linn Energy [View article]
    I would agree with you, their free cash flow is worse than that of BBEP before BBEP last deal and a lot worse now after the deal
    Mar 31, 2015. 07:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: What Are The Possible Alternatives For Resolving The Leverage Challenge? [View article]
    I would expect that 80 million number to improve quarterly also as the capex cuts come into effect which they had not by the end of Dec and will not completely by the most part of this quarter but will by 2nd quarter.
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: What Are The Possible Alternatives For Resolving The Leverage Challenge? [View article]
    richard
    I hope they continue to remain calm for the next generation or two. but doing nothing is not true, they have cut the distribution by more than 50% very early on, I do not believe they did this in a vacuum but did it with full realization and agreement of the bankers, if and when they need to they will cut the distribution entirely, but at this point they do not need to do so. I am not sure with current pricing that they need to until 2017 and with any improvement in oil prices above 75 they may never need to do so. They are very educated in doing what needs to be done in a crisis without losing their cool and they will continue to do so regardless of what some may think is a better alternative. They have been through this before. Selling more equity that is paying 13.5% is more costly than doing 10% bonds that can be paid off early so please explain why that would make sense. I see a reason to sell your hedges if you feel oil has bottomed and that prices might rise. You buy stocks when they are at their low point and you would want to sell hedges at their most valuable point You would only want to keep them if you felt oil was going lower. I think we have been through the worst of the oil sell off. I am not sure that the Saudis havent decided that they made a mistake and will stabliize oil and possibly increase prices but nevertheless the low point is in and from here the news in the next 6 months will be more positive. for example, production will begin to drop in 6 months, usage will increase as the economy improves, capex has been lowered and prices of remaining capex will improve on costs.
    Mar 7, 2015. 02:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences Could Be A Dividend Growth Stock [View article]
    YOu should have mentioned the 26 to 27 million in rev was based on 250k cases of hep c treated and that the company is overly conservative as current sales rates are at 270k cases per yr without the discounts really having kicked in much yet so one could expect 300k cases in the US alone and anothe 100k in Europe and additonal in Japan soon.
    Feb 9, 2015. 03:26 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • BreitBurn Energy Partners: Why A Distribution Of $0.50 Per Unit Appears More Sustainable [View article]
    THOSE NUMBERS ARE off from the companies figures and other SA writers that have stated that we have current 1.35 coverage which leaves 75M for debt reduction and that coverage at $55 oil is good all the way through 2016. no one disputes that by 2017 we need a change. I feel that the company worked with Wells Fargo on the last cut and that it was approved by WF as being adequate at the current price of oil. So I do not see your article as being very accurate. I say that being a proponent of a complete suspension of distribution until the credit line can be reduced significantly.
    Feb 4, 2015. 11:57 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bet The Farm On Gilead... Again [View article]
    I have over 60% in GILD since 75. I think what you left out about Q3 is that 41 cents a share was deducted from earnings per share due to a one time charge for Obamacare the quarter was actually a beat had it not been for that charge. I expect earnings to be in the $2.50 range tomorrow. It would seem that GILD has about 95% of the current market as Vpak is having difficulty with sales. some say that the script numbers dont reflect ESRX but most of the insurers under ESRX have opted out to Gild and by the time GILD gets to thier next generation HepC pill they will shut ABBV and merck treatments down.
    The postition due to gains is now 75%of my holdings and I am not budging I do believe in betting the farm and have gone all in. the last time I did this was AAPL at $80 many years ago and sold out at $650 to get in here.
    Feb 2, 2015. 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Breitburn Energy Partners Is Looking For A Loan [View article]
    IMO they should have bitten the bullet and suspended rather than cut the distribution
    Jan 14, 2015. 01:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • About BreitBurn's Distribution Cut [View article]
    gasoline is 1.639 where I live.
    Jan 7, 2015. 04:46 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With BreitBurn Energy? [View article]
    I think another thing that people need to think about is that BBEP hedge for 2015 is on about 4 million barrels of oil and their hedges are now worth about $160 million dollars which could be cashed out along with their 2016 hedges and pay off a large amount of their LOC These are very valuable assets and selling them at this low of an oil price might be a good decision
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:58 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With BreitBurn Energy? [View article]
    that is based upon $95 oil when you drop it to 55 oil then their borrowing base will drop significantly to under 2 billion and put them over their limit. They need to reduce debt and to make arrangements for it =quickly to avoid problems. I feel a zero distribution is in order but my understanding from another post is that would put them in legal problems with some QRE merger deals unless the bank forces it so it may not come until the reevaluation
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:47 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's Wrong With BreitBurn Energy? [View article]
    I have been doing step buying in BBEP and my current average is 8.25 AND intend on buying more as the price continues to fall. I believe you are correct in that the price is still falling, the distribution will be cut to zero in the next 6 months and that this oil depresssion will last for over a year. Anyone expecting a spike and this to be over are a little shortsighted. One could see pressure on oil prices coming for almost a year but not to this extreme as I for one would never have guessed that Saudi would be crazy enough to start an outright oil war. The major world wide problems this will cause in Russia, Iraq and Venzuela will be felt by many and may well spread to other middle East countries. I am not sure that Saudi has given this a complete thought as to those reprecussions. But this will otherwise be the stimulus that the industrialized countries couldnt come up with to get us into a growth mode again which along with depletion will get us out of this price war in about one year.
    Dec 15, 2014. 04:39 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is BreitBurn Energy Partners Ready For A Tough 2015? [View article]
    I would have to agree that this will not be a quick turn around in price unless you have the govt of Saudi Arabia overthrown and their oil wells blown up by a bunch of fanatics. This oil oversupply is going to be with us for at least a year before things level out. i think 2015 will be mostly dead money also except for a small bounce up once this hits bottom then a nice level area.
    Dec 9, 2014. 12:07 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - Investigating Earnings Predictability [View article]
    I personally think that with about 1/2 of its revenue from sovaldi/harvoni that that puts a lot of risk and lower PE into the works, if they had 30 drugs with none accounting for more than 10% of thier revenue and still had the huge revenue they currently have then you would see a larger PE but then the coefficient of variance would be lower also. You have to look behind the numbers and see what is causing the variance to understand the situation. When you look at GILD it is like looking at APPL who has a huge amt of revenue riding on the Iphone and it has a low PE also but when growth continues so does stock price which is what I care about and not CoV or PE GILD has a premier market pill that is the cadillac of the HVC market and it will continue to dominate
    Nov 29, 2014. 04:42 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gilead Sciences - Investigating Earnings Predictability [View article]
    I do agree with you on buying more innovation if they can t deliver it on their own but what do you do with all the cash building up and getting 1% at the bank, I think the stock buy back is a good alternative they will still have borrowing power to buy more companies then use thier cash flow to pay off the loans meanwhile stock buy backs are far superior to dividends but less superior than buying a company like pharmasett. Spend it wisely.
    Nov 29, 2014. 04:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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