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techwonk

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  • How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
    (TW smiles) Well, I didn't mean to imply all investors were frightened.
    Jan 31, 2013. 04:02 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • How Much Should You Pay For Apple? [View article]
    7 percent growth plus a two percent dividend only gets Apple to "market perform" when the benchmark index is pegged at 9 % annual growth on average.

    That's the textbook answer. The real world answer is a stock is worth whatever people decide to pay for it. Frightened investors dumping shares into the market obviously isn't helping matters. But consider their point of view: they didn't buy Apple for market- rate growth. They bought it expecting "market outperform."

    Do I think it's fair Campbell's Soup has 3% growth and a 13 p/e? No. But who ever said markets were fair?
    Jan 31, 2013. 03:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Roasters 3.0 [View article]
    Oh yeah! That would get the attention of the energy drinks makers too, eh? I suppose you could put all those supplements they use in the brew too.

    Excellent work on the article and linking the patent image was really thoughtful of you. Thanks.
    Jan 29, 2013. 04:14 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Absurdity Of Market Expectations [View article]
    Possibly a hedge fund? A sale with matching buy on Close would not be inconsistent with the situation. You can expect some large trades to be unwound or offset after an earnings report. A trade at close would tend to move the market a little less, which may be why it was done then.
    Jan 28, 2013. 02:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    Thanks. Yes I'm familiar with the internal vs. external financing paradigm. I just ran the wrong numbers. Given the lack of a dividend CAI might have a chance at outperforming on growth, but I still think it might be a little early in the business cycle for these companies.
    Jan 28, 2013. 01:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple: The Absurdity Of Market Expectations [View article]
    Thanks for a dose of sanity, very refreshing at this point. I'm not saying I agree or disagree with your numbers, but there needs to be more numbers-driven discussion on Apple right now and less howling.

    What really amuses me is that I still see claims that Apple will reach $1000. First, it was never on track to get there this year or even next year, and second, I think we can forget about it breaking $800 this year also.

    Disclosure is not required on posts, only articles, but let me say that I do trade Apple. Yes, that's "trade" not "invest". The risks are not the same. And when my estimates are wrong, I lose money.

    If this kind of scenario bothers you, do not trade. Period. Not complicated. For long-term investors who can tolerate the volatility, Apple remains a very compelling story.
    Jan 27, 2013. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple's Shares Are Approaching A Bottom [View article]
    I agree. Apple's strength is innovation, but there is a downside and that downside is a lack of depth in areas that produce repeat sales.

    Although iTunes and apps counter this problem somewhat, Apple is a manufacturer first and foremost. Once it saturates the potential market for its products, growth must inevitably slow.

    By contrast, Microsoft forces customers to keep coming back for Windows and Office updates. Intel manufacturers for a range of customers so its model is half leader and half follower.

    Two things Apple has long resisted are stock dividends and stock splits. Having finally implemented the first, it would not surprise me if the second action was not far behind.
    Jan 27, 2013. 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    Well, I look foolish, eh? Sorry, my error, it's SAI with the rapid-growth multiple. Guess I ran too many numbers yesterday, it's all a blur.
    Jan 25, 2013. 02:44 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    The rapid-growth price multiple concerns me with CAI. Unless there's some advantage they have that I'm not seeing, I can't understand how they're adding twice as much value as their 3 main competitors. It's essentially a commodity business even though they're providing equipment.
    Jan 24, 2013. 07:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    Would like to see that chart if you decide to share it. Can you notify me when you write on this topic again?

    I've been interested in BOX since the IPO. Containers seem to me to be a way to trade export uptrends, minus the oil pricing risk that shippers face. Or am I being naive on that?

    Seems to me one of these companies was also experimenting with fold-down containers to compress loads when they are shipped empty, if I remember correctly.
    Jan 23, 2013. 05:33 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Case For Container Leasing: 3 High Dividend Payers And 1 Earnings Retainer [View article]
    That's an interesting development, since they are being bought by a pension fund. How will the acquirer handle the investment going forward? Like an active investor (larger than 5% shareholder)?Presumably the company will retain control over operations.
    Jan 23, 2013. 05:28 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    And it did not take long.... New York was first out of the gate today. Regardless of your political position this should be a very interesting year from the standpoint of business metrics evaluation for these companies. Lots of unknowns.
    Jan 15, 2013. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Doesn't Google Get The Amazon Treatment? [View article]
    This is something I ponder often too. I'm siding with the apple-and-orange analog (unintended pun?)

    To some extent I think industry multiples come into play with Apple. With similar computer manufacturers at 8 and 10 multiples, Apple could be considered a standout at 12 to 15, even though that seriously under represents the intrinsic value of the enterprise.

    Retail multiples are vulnerable to bubble effects - Sears is nowhere near as healthy as Amazon, but look at the PE!

    With Google, perhaps people just can't decide what kind of company it is, or wants to be. There still is a counterpart, though, BIDU, and the PEs are roughly in line.
    Jan 14, 2013. 06:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Systems: For Experienced Speculators And Momentum Players Only [View article]
    Agree with the others, nice job on the article.

    Do you plan to follow this industry segment? If so I'd want to know so I can read your future posts. 3-d printing has lots of commercial and industrial uses, there may be interesting investment opportunities coming out of companies and inventors who buy the devices, too.
    Jan 14, 2013. 07:29 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Ammunition Shortage: Buy Olin, Alliant, Or Neither? [View article]
    Would be surprised if tighter controls on ammo fail to make it into legislation this year. Conversely the law enforcement sales will probably increase. Arizona is applying monies toward arming sheriff's deputies with semi-automatics.
    Jan 12, 2013. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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