Seeking Alpha

strunz's  Instablog

strunz
Send Message
short seller James Chanos fan.
View strunz's Instablogs on:
  • Resolute Forest Products And Paper Market

    In the coming years the sale of tablets and other e-book readers will increase in parallel to an increase in the availability of electronic books, newspapers, magazines and catalogs.

    The paper will be gradually abandoned also for environmental reasons.

    From the 2012 balance sheet of ("Resolute Forest (NYSE:RFP)"). :

    Newsprint1627M$ sales

    Coated Papers(magazines, catalogs, books, retail advertising,direct mail and coupons) 455M$ sales

    Specialty (books, retail advertising, direct mail, coupons and other commercial printing) 1107M$ sales

    Pulp (tissue, packaging, specialty paper products, diapers and other absorbent products) 814M$ sales

    Wood Products 500M$ sales

    For the above-stated reasons, in my opinion, the sales in these 3 segments will decrease rapidly in the coming years.

    The first three segments (Newsprint,Coated Papers,Specialty ) are then 70% of the SALES for Resolute Forest.

    This is the reason why I believe that Resolute Forest is a company doomed to decrease its value unless it rapidly reconverts to alternative areas.

    Disclosure: I am short RFP. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Tags: RFP, short-ideas
    Feb 14 8:02 AM | Link | Comment!
  • Mediaset : Italian Political Elections

    On March 24th and 25th, the political elections will be held in Italy.

    The first rumors of a repeated candidacy of a coalition of parties led by Silvio Berlusconi appeared in mid November.

    MEDIASET is a company listed on the Italian Stock Exchange (Borsa Italiana), which Silvio Berlusconi owns approximately for 40%.

    If Berlusconi wins the election the stock will go up; if he loses the stock will go down.

    The reasons are obvious: Silvio Berlusconi has always favored his companies when he was in government.

    In fact, from mid-November 2012 to the present day the MEDIASET stock has increased its value by 65%.

    Berlusconi announced his candidacy in mid-November and during this period the disadvantage of the center-right coalition led by Berlusconi towards the center-left coalition led by Bersani has gradually decreased.

    In recent months I have carried out an in-depth study of the surveys, also based on the approach of Nate Silver.

    In my opinion the chances that Silvio Berlusconi will be part of the new government are remote and for this reason I think that MEDIASET is to short before next Italian political elections.

    Disclosure: I am short OTCPK:MDIUY, OTC:MDIEF. I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

    Feb 13 4:18 PM | Link | Comment!
Full index of posts »
Latest Followers
Posts by Themes
Instablogs are Seeking Alpha's free blogging platform customized for finance, with instant set up and exposure to millions of readers interested in the financial markets. Publish your own instablog in minutes.