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brianhutch

brianhutch
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  • IBM: A Huge Debt Load [View article]
    IBM is not alone but likely the worst example of the following.

    The companies issuing the bonds are "doing what they always like doing with debt in the final throes of an economic cycle," he notes. "They issue cheap debt to buy expensive equity. . . . But a gargantuan funding gap emerges."

    http://nws.mx/1mZlQwZ
    Aug 28 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM: A Huge Debt Load [View article]
    Good rationalisation for holding a stock that has underperformed the DOW by 35% for the last 3 years
    or underperformed the Dow transports by 72%
    or those in the Dow Travel and tourism index by 150% in the last 3 years .
    Aug 28 04:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Server growth positive in Q2; IBM loses share, H-P/Cisco gain [View news story]
    A fatal flaw in investing is "falling in Love with your stocks" that is the only reason why shareholders stubbornly stay IBM shareholders when HPQ at 25% - 30% of IBM's valuation on a price to sales and price to book ratio reduces IBM to second place in the server business .
    Trying to justify IBM on the basis that it will "turn" things around has been a losing proposition for the last 3 years while other stocks have appreciated by 200-300-% IBM has gone nowhere .
    When finally this hot air bubble of the FED's easy money policy collapses as they always do then IBM will crash .
    Aug 28 01:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM According To Warren Buffett's Annual Letters To Shareholders [View article]
    Current PEs are no longer reliable , thanks to S&P ratings lowering the standards on accounting procedures .
    That has enabled US companies to remove expenses from their calculations which in the past prior to year 2000 they had to include .
    So comparing historical PEs with present PEs to ascertain whether a top in a stock or the stockmarket has been reached is futile .
    Today the only reliable method of comparison with historical data is Price to Book ratios .
    The average Price to book ratio of the DOW 30 as of today is 4.725
    According to Robert Prechter's excellent book in 1929 the average PB of S&P 400 was just over 3 times Book value . In 1987 prior to the October 1987 crash it was 2.0
    How about IBM ?
    It has a PB = 10.97 only MO and VZ are higher at 19.27 and VZ at 13.67
    That sounds like a very dangerous valuation to me , I hope you enjoy your 2% dividend but you can be sure the IBM directors are enjoying their stock sale prices even more as they are granted option prices well below current stock prices.
    Aug 26 05:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Problems May Be Fatal [View article]
    The best indication of the future of any company is insider buying/selling because they are more knowledgeable than any investor or analyst .
    What have these insider transactions been telling us for the last 3 years ?
    I will leave any prospective share buyer to do their own research as I have done to find out .
    Then compare how many shares IBM has bought with shareholders money .
    Aug 21 04:55 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM's Problems May Be Fatal [View article]
    I have spent the last 50 years either being employed by IBM , holding their shares or studying this company .
    It is now a company run by a CEO that lacks the foresight of those that made IBM what it used to be i.e The Watsons .
    IBM's directors sure appreciate you loyal investors as they sell their shares and reap the profit
    Aug 21 04:01 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Tasty Yields Of IBM [View article]
    yield seems important but if only you ignore the loss of profit that investors have incurred compared to the large number of stocks that have benefitted from the FED's ponzi money.
    Trying to justify by the yield ,the loss of profit that occured when comparing IBM's poor stock performance while many other DOW stocks such as BA , HD , UTX , MMM and others which gained 100 -200% in the last 2-3 years while IBM went nowhere is futile .

    Yield can not be judged in isolation but only in the larger picture.
    What happens to IBM when the FED finally runs out of ammunition when it went nowhere in the largest point run up in history and IBM finally has to stop buying its own shares because its debt tab has risen even above its present $46B ?
    That is a question that has an obvious answer .
    Aug 20 03:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Buffett's IBM Stake Surpasses 7% With Strong Upside To Fair Value [View article]
    $20 sounds a low cost but that was the year I joined IBM.
    The DOW has risen from a high of 737 in sept 1963 to a high of over 17,000 so you achieved about 40% of the rise in the DOW.
    I resigned from IBM in 1984 when I saw that the wheels were going to fall off the IBM gravy train with the introduction of the PC and microprocessor.
    I see the same thing is happening once more .
    My advice is to exit before it repeats itself .
    In 1993 IBM fell to around $10 from above $40
    Aug 18 05:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • IBM Delivers Disappointing Quarter, But Interesting Future Moves [View article]
    IBM stock has gone nowhere for 2 years .
    All the faithful IBM investors have lost out on huge gains that have made in stocks
    like Avis/budget which has risen 427% from $15.43 to $66 August 2012 to 2014
    Meanwhile IBM has gone down from $198.29 to $187.95.
    IBM has been a losing position in one of the largest bull moves in many years while many long time investors hanging on and hoping things will change while they debate how low its PE is until they are "BLUE" in the face.
    If IBM had not been buying its own stock I would hate to see where it would be now.
    Aug 13 09:48 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are IBM's Earnings Really Low Quality? [View article]
    Any corporation that has flat or negative sales for the last 4 years but still "manages" to grow earnings is either low quality or very suspect .
    Also the insiders seem to agree since all they have done is sold their shares for the last few years.
    Aug 11 06:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM Grossly Undervalued? [View article]
    Here are the facts not the hype which seems to be omnipresent today.

    IBM PB 10.71 , HPQ PB 2.34 , BRK-A PB 1.38
    However if you factor in IBM's huge debht of $46B
    IBM has a tangible book value iof minus $12.
    What happens when you divide IBM's stock price by a negative number.
    My math says it is infinite .

    http://onforb.es/10Wrneo
    http://yhoo.it/WrdmWZ
    http://yhoo.it/1oXOMZY
    http://yhoo.it/1oXOMZY
    Aug 11 01:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is IBM Grossly Undervalued? [View article]
    This market is the frothiest I have seen since I bought my first stock 45 years ago.
    One reason is that those that claim to be analysts are ignorant of the most important measurement of valuation , the one that Buffet used in the past for his success i.e. PB ratio
    Judging IBM from that viewpoint it is ridiculously overvalued .
    Price to earnings today is meaningless because earnings are massaged so much by using every trick in the book.
    Aug 11 12:22 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Flat Revenues Really IBM's #1 Problem? [View article]
    More likely to repeat history when they said I could have bought those shares under $100.
    IBM is a company just like Microsoft in which they refused to innovate before it was too late .
    The big difference though is MSFT's large cash position vs IBM's large debt position
    Jul 27 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Flat Revenues Really IBM's #1 Problem? [View article]
    "buying much of the other 1B shares left "

    I would hate to see their total debt at that point since it has climbed to $46.47B as of Q2 , up another $2.5B from Q1.

    This is a fools paradise of a stock market.
    IBM is like a novice investor who keeps buying higher on margin just before the market crashes
    When it finally crashes they are bankrupt
    Jul 22 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Are Flat Revenues Really IBM's #1 Problem? [View article]
    Cutting expenses to the bone by tax breaks and employee layoffs is not the sign of a healthy business model .
    In addition when a company has to go deeper in debt to repurchase IBM shares while its directors refuse to buy stock with their own money but constantly sell their option grants as soon as possible , it is sending a warning message to all intelligent investors .
    Also one very important Financial ratio is indicating how over valued IBM is .
    A PB of close to 12 is higher than many very high flying companies such as Salesforce(NYSE:CRM) at a PB of 10.49 and even Priceline at 8.80 .
    Jul 22 01:34 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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