Seeking Alpha

convoluted

convoluted
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View convoluted's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Aerie: A Brilliant Future, Derisking In Progress, And The Making Of A Major Ophthalmic Pharmaceutical [View article]
    Quite an education- better than football game I just watched- sending to my ophthalmologist.
    Dec 23, 2014. 09:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • FXE: An Excellent Addition To Your Portfolio, No Matter Which Way The Wind Blows [View article]
    Sell a longer term put and a short term call.
    Dec 23, 2014. 05:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes [View article]
    Good idea-
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Russia, Gold, Oil, And Interest Rate Extremes [View article]
    I typically sell options on leveraged ETFs- The option pricing methodology gets 'high jacked'. Theta inconsistencies abound/ bid- ask spreads bizarre-
    But, great idea to sell options on SCO ( short calls)- very sharp casino operators are pitted against you.
    Example of what you might find: an option several strikes OTM should be worth less than an option much closer to the money- a normal decay probability situation- but one can find the opposite. This would not happen with SPY or a FB.
    Dec 21, 2014. 10:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why You Should Not Sell Your Oil Stocks At A Loss [View article]
    To everything there is a season-a time to cast away stones, a time to gather stones, a time of war, a time of peace, a time to embrace, a time to refrain from embracing...
    A time to gain, a time to lose-a time to every purpose under heaven.
    Like some of you, I don't like 'paper losses.' But, I don't accept the inevitability of wasting time waiting for someone else to come along and push values up once more. I play both sides of the street. I seldom own stocks, but I do sell puts. So, if I'm short puts on some energy stock, I don't just scream in pain and agony, I will double or triple short the underlying stock. I will cover the short positions, and roll the short puts down and out.
    Paper losses are psychologically real-people have blown their brains out over 'paper losses'-notwithstanding IRS rules. Learn to take advantage of volatility. Make an oath today that you will learn to play this game-learn to win whether the market moves up or down.
    Dec 16, 2014. 04:43 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Saudi Oil War Means Structural Sea Change; Risk-Off Turmoil Fuels Long Bond Strength [View article]
    What's the best way to short the Canadian housing bubble-other than shorting canadian banks with mortgage exposure?
    Dec 16, 2014. 03:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • State Of Crude Oil Lacks Color And Form: A Reporting [View article]
    Wouldn't worry about ovx/vix disparity-convergence follows digestion.
    One of my plays for making money is to buy UCO (the bullish levered oil fund), and sell call spreads on USO.
    The reason for using two instruments is that bid/ask on USO options is substantially more favorable than UCO. This adds up in implementing spreads. One can view the USO spread (e.g. short the JAN 22 CALL and buy the same expiry 26 CALL)-as a hedge. BUt, note that UCO will run at 2x USO. Thus, if the USO spread runs against you-meaning that oil has spiked back up- both the UCO shares and the 26 long call will create more profit.
    If oil continues to drop, or does nothing (or moves a little)-you collect on the USO spread. Take the profits from the USO spread and buy more UCO at a lower cost. Re-establish the USO spread on spikes.
    No charge-just donate to your local humane society. Or better yet, adopt a pet.
    Dec 10, 2014. 12:37 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The 21st Century Will Belong To America - And Commodities And Emerging Markets Look Awful [View article]
    Gibbons (and others) have the date as 476 A.D. for the approximate fall of Rome.
    So far, the US has benefited from extraordinary technology and a refined common law system of jurisprudence. That in turn is somewhat attributable to the Protestant Ethic, and the circumstances surrounding the events of 1776 and subsequent years.
    In modern times (say at the end of the depression and Pearl Harbor), Einstein's letter to FDR led to the Manhattan Project-which led to a more concise and expeditious end to WWll-which led to Bretton Woods, and the emergence of the US as the global financial and economic power. The benefits derived from the aftermath of the second world war are as vibrant as ever. No doubt, the US has made numerous miscalculations-but when the chips were really down, and the free world was at the crossroads-the US stood up when no other nation would, or could.
    Popper has noted that politicians must be kept in check-so as not to do any serious damage. Thus far, the US has not been sabotaged by a Caligula (except that Carter did have lust in his heart), or deviated from its core values and culture.
    There is no perfection-and there will never be a utopia. Yet, I see new US citizens almost everyday. They hail from Central and South America, China, Russia-even Iran. Indeed, there is much room for improvement. The journey is far from over. But, I think the evidence suggests a continuing convergence in the types of institutions governing most advanced societies. Future historians, writing some centuries from now, might conclude that any reasonable person looking at the journey of man, would be forced to agree that there had only been one journey and one destination.

    Dec 9, 2014. 10:06 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Buy-And-Hold Doesn't Work For Investor Wealth Builders [View article]
    Peter, you touched on the roadblock for the vast majority-a quasi-religious/cultural brainwashing that's on par with the piety of the Middle Ages.
    DO NOT SQUANDER TIME, FOR THAT IS THE STUFF LIFE IS MADE OF.
    Time is THE factor with every strategy I establish. But, I differ a bit in that I combine the odds of mean regression with option expiration. An example that I have currently is short TNA 76.50 DEC 20 puts. I figure I have even money that those puts will expire worthless-yielding about $3,000 for each 10 pack. IF the market panics, I'll simply roll out and down to the next time period, and reset the game clock. (I'm also short TZA puts that go out to a longer time period-and I figure I've got even money on that play as well). But, 'even money' is just an initial determination. I can change the rules at any time.
    Even the Good Book reminds us that there's a time to reap and a time to sew=there is a time for everything under the sun.
    "To have and to hold from this day forward" is supposed to apply to marriage-not to a random number table.
    Dec 9, 2014. 03:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Bells Will Be Silent [View article]
    Yes, but Mr. Market (a euphemism-if not a metaphor for human behavior) can only exist at the whim and caprice of...government. Likewise, no central bank can exist without statutory enactment...the government once again.
    So, all arrows ultimately point back to "of the people, by the people and for the people." At the end of the day ( a time roughly equivalent to those cows headed home) WE THE PEOPLE will suffer the slings and arrows of our own doing. Granted, we have entrusted some of our 'ablest' citizens to venture forth and, with great wisdom and humility, lead us to quiet fields where we prosper and self-actualize. Yet, somewhere along the yellow brick road, that crafty old wicked witch changed statesmen into a curious mix of blathering politicians and fund-raising scalawags.
    This has persisted with such a subtle and perpetual vengeance, that our culture is no longer characterized by self-reliance and quiet patience borne of the dear school of experience. Our culture has become a thing unto itself. The market is but another layer-it has demonstrated emergent traits-but it ultimately remains connected to the processes that initiated it. A culture within a culture if you like, or from the Latin "omnis cultura ex cultura"-all culture comes from culture.
    Dec 8, 2014. 12:35 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • LendingClub hikes IPO range; valuation could top $5B [View news story]
    Amazing- a new twist on the world's second oldest profession.
    But, this does beg the question: where are the banks?
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:38 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: A Bounce Is On The Horizon [View article]
    Many of you seek a logical (or biased argument) as to the future price of oil. Well, we all use our discretionary time accordingly, but all I want to do is WIN.
    And, if you want to put yourself in the best position to make the most amount of money (assuming you don't utilize options), I suggest phasing in a long position with UCO.
    Several months ago I suggested shorting oil via SCO. If you followed me you made some quick money. In fact, look at my batting average for 2014. If you followed my stocktalks and comments, you had a great year.
    Personally, I just put in a short position on the leveraged short instrument. But, if you can't short or utilize options, nibble at UCO. BUT YOU SHOULD AVERAGE IN AND BE PATIENT!
    You can do this in less than 10 seconds. Then you're free to pontificate the rest of the day.
    Dec 8, 2014. 11:00 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Shorting VXX And Sleep: How To Do Both [View article]
    On my way to SEC championship game-so not much time.
    The author makes the point that shorting VXX is superior to being long SVXY or XIV.
    A quick eye test will support his thesis. VXX at (or ver near) 52 week low.
    Is either SVXY or XIV at a reciprocal or inverse point-a 52 week high?
    NOPE!
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Short Volatility: A Great Long-Term Investment As Always [View article]
    Selling 5 (or n number) of both calls and puts would be a bet on theta returns. In other words, you want to collect premium on both sides-which requires minimal movement of the underlying. Yes, there is a bit of a hedge, but a pronounced downdraft leaves you with an increased put assignment probability. Once the put delta hits one, you effectively own 500 (or x) number of shares.
    The better play, assuming one wants to both short VXX, and hedge i.e. define the max risk, would be to utilize bear call spreads. You could use the credit premium to buy VXX puts and/or sell an OTM put option. Of course, you're not limited to vertical spreads, one can mix/match diagonal/calendar spreads as well.
    I find the best return is to sell volatility on spikes, and double down-if needed. Again, the whole premise is mean reversion or an understanding that fear is a temporary phenomenon. Obviously, you don't want to use leverage that you can't handle. If the world really comes to an end-it sure as hell won't matter anyway.
    Dec 6, 2014. 11:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Can Albert Einstein's Math Get You To The Finish Line? Retirement Portfolio Quarterly Review [View article]
    "Two things are infinite; the universe and human stupidity, and I'm not sure about the universe."
    "Whoever undertakes to set himself up as a judge in the field of knowledge and truth is shipwrecked by the laughter of the gods."
    "So far as the laws of mathematics refer to reality, they are not certain. And so far as they are certain, they do not refer to reality."
    "When I examine myself and my methods of thought, I come to the conclusion that the gift of fantasy has meant more to me than my talent for absorbing positive knowledge."

    Albert Einstein
    Dec 4, 2014. 05:18 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
1,968 Comments
2,377 Likes