convoluted's Comments RSS Syndication from SeekingAlpha.com http://seekingalpha.com/user/692852/comments http://seekingalpha.com/article/1446541/comments?source=feed#comment-19119501 19119501 ANTICIPATION allows an immediate and appropriate counter-measure. In fact, I normally make more money by counter-punching. So, why whine about gold going down when one can avail themselves of an inverse ETF? (Just one of many counter-measures). ]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 11:36:57 -0400 ANTICIPATION allows an immediate and appropriate counter-measure. In fact, I normally make more money by counter-punching. So, why whine about gold going down when one can avail themselves of an inverse ETF? (Just one of many counter-measures). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1453231/comments?source=feed#comment-19118781 19118781 Actually, this structure can be traded as well, or simply left in place. It depends on the exact nature of the risk you need to insure. One insurance policy doesn't fit all portfolios. I can have a $10M portfolio, and Joe can have a $10M portfolio-but the components can be quite different. In fact, some degree of non-correlation may already be contained within the various holdings. The SVXY concept though, would probably work with index holdings or select holdings. ]]> Wed, 22 May 2013 11:12:34 -0400 Actually, this structure can be traded as well, or simply left in place. It depends on the exact nature of the risk you need to insure. One insurance policy doesn't fit all portfolios. I can have a $10M portfolio, and Joe can have a $10M portfolio-but the components can be quite different. In fact, some degree of non-correlation may already be contained within the various holdings. The SVXY concept though, would probably work with index holdings or select holdings. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1448821/comments?source=feed#comment-19067901 19067901 Avoiding violence and confusion lies at the core of this global phenomenon. This too is masked by society's feeble grasp and alignment with its venerable institutions. But, of course, what is the alternative?
So, the charade continues, and legions of paper faces will strut their hour or so. "Masquerade! paper faces on parade..." as the lyrics go. But isn't nature 'red in tooth and claw'? And, do not 'cowards die many times before their deaths' No-that would be politically incorrect. ]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 09:31:44 -0400 Avoiding violence and confusion lies at the core of this global phenomenon. This too is masked by society's feeble grasp and alignment with its venerable institutions. But, of course, what is the alternative?
So, the charade continues, and legions of paper faces will strut their hour or so. "Masquerade! paper faces on parade..." as the lyrics go. But isn't nature 'red in tooth and claw'? And, do not 'cowards die many times before their deaths' No-that would be politically incorrect. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1449071/comments?source=feed#comment-19063481 19063481 Another apt analogy is herd behavior on the African plains. People are like wildebeests, stampeding first in one direction until exhaustion, then, after a rest, they are just as likely to turn around and run in the opposite direction. The crocodile and the lion wait pateiently for the right moment.]]> Tue, 21 May 2013 07:53:00 -0400 Another apt analogy is herd behavior on the African plains. People are like wildebeests, stampeding first in one direction until exhaustion, then, after a rest, they are just as likely to turn around and run in the opposite direction. The crocodile and the lion wait pateiently for the right moment.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1035461?source=feed#comment-19054871 19054871 So, there are times when you bet on both the Bay and the Bobtail nag. ]]> Mon, 20 May 2013 22:06:50 -0400 So, there are times when you bet on both the Bay and the Bobtail nag. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1448571/comments?source=feed#comment-19054351 19054351 Mon, 20 May 2013 21:54:03 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1442911/comments?source=feed#comment-18945481 18945481 Normally, one would expect at least a modest snapback, but folks act like they're running from the plague. Amusing-and profitable. I've just closed May, and booked June. Are people really this crazy?]]> Fri, 17 May 2013 11:22:38 -0400 Normally, one would expect at least a modest snapback, but folks act like they're running from the plague. Amusing-and profitable. I've just closed May, and booked June. Are people really this crazy?]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1028951?source=feed#comment-18924641 18924641 Thu, 16 May 2013 20:51:38 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427911/comments?source=feed#comment-18879601 18879601 But as the gains rocketed up today, I sold some NUGT puts (June) with fat premium. So, I'm a pale shade of yellow goldbug-playing both sides against the middle. So, if you're long, you need to be ready to double down (and sell calls). DON'T PANIC AND PLAY INTO THE HANDS OF THE DARK EMPIRE.
Gold is not a company that will file chapter 11. It doesn't matter where it 'bottoms', for such a concept is meaningless anyway. If you're short gold, realize that anything can happen-protect your profits earned on the short side. C'mon man, this is better than napalm in the morning. ]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 22:26:46 -0400 But as the gains rocketed up today, I sold some NUGT puts (June) with fat premium. So, I'm a pale shade of yellow goldbug-playing both sides against the middle. So, if you're long, you need to be ready to double down (and sell calls). DON'T PANIC AND PLAY INTO THE HANDS OF THE DARK EMPIRE.
Gold is not a company that will file chapter 11. It doesn't matter where it 'bottoms', for such a concept is meaningless anyway. If you're short gold, realize that anything can happen-protect your profits earned on the short side. C'mon man, this is better than napalm in the morning. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436841/comments?source=feed#comment-18878971 18878971 Bear call spreads=affirmative.]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 22:04:47 -0400 Bear call spreads=affirmative.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435941/comments?source=feed#comment-18854031 18854031 How it was in years gone by
And the good times that I had
Makes today seem rather sad
So much has changed"
The Carpenters- "Yesterday Once More"]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 12:19:42 -0400 How it was in years gone by
And the good times that I had
Makes today seem rather sad
So much has changed"
The Carpenters- "Yesterday Once More"]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436671/comments?source=feed#comment-18852291 18852291 Just wanted to mention a few minor issues perhaps worthy of a modest amount of consideration. ]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 11:45:53 -0400 Just wanted to mention a few minor issues perhaps worthy of a modest amount of consideration. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1434181/comments?source=feed#comment-18851431 18851431 (I'll join you in the moderate bull camp next week).]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 11:25:36 -0400 (I'll join you in the moderate bull camp next week).]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1436001/comments?source=feed#comment-18845171 18845171 The other blinding trait of our species is to assign greater importance to what is happening now, as opposed to last week. Far and away, the majority of people will create biases that shade and obscure rational thinking.
I first started managing money in my early 30's-a fund of $250 Million. Small today, but a big deal to me in the early 80's. It has taken me many years to to finally understand that man's actions are not merely random and predicated upon a host of biases, but often foolish and highly irrational. And, I know that I'm still not immune from many of these biases-but I generally catch myself before I do any damage.
One of the things about retirement is that one can just hang around, and like Sinatra so eloquently states-find the whole thing so damn amusing. That I can concoct an array of option strategies that make money 'come rain or come shine' is itself eveidence of gaming man's biases. For, without all the prejudices and opinionated 'perspectives' there would be no game. ]]> Wed, 15 May 2013 09:36:40 -0400 The other blinding trait of our species is to assign greater importance to what is happening now, as opposed to last week. Far and away, the majority of people will create biases that shade and obscure rational thinking.
I first started managing money in my early 30's-a fund of $250 Million. Small today, but a big deal to me in the early 80's. It has taken me many years to to finally understand that man's actions are not merely random and predicated upon a host of biases, but often foolish and highly irrational. And, I know that I'm still not immune from many of these biases-but I generally catch myself before I do any damage.
One of the things about retirement is that one can just hang around, and like Sinatra so eloquently states-find the whole thing so damn amusing. That I can concoct an array of option strategies that make money 'come rain or come shine' is itself eveidence of gaming man's biases. For, without all the prejudices and opinionated 'perspectives' there would be no game. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1435831/comments?source=feed#comment-18843041 18843041 Wed, 15 May 2013 09:02:29 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1434562/comments?source=feed#comment-18833181 18833181 The reality is that things are much better than the years 1348-1351. Indeed, we have a new system of feudalism emerging, by which the serfs are free to drive back and forth to the castle and it's environs-and are actually encouraged to grow or procure their own food. Look, the stock market can't be concerned with the malnourished, poverty-ridden, grief-stricken main streeters-especially if they don't consume any of the market's products.]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 22:39:47 -0400 The reality is that things are much better than the years 1348-1351. Indeed, we have a new system of feudalism emerging, by which the serfs are free to drive back and forth to the castle and it's environs-and are actually encouraged to grow or procure their own food. Look, the stock market can't be concerned with the malnourished, poverty-ridden, grief-stricken main streeters-especially if they don't consume any of the market's products.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432711/comments?source=feed#comment-18832691 18832691 Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que Sera, Sera,
What will be, will be"

And the sample size of the correct prognostication is...3? Over how many years as a ratio of human existence?
I recall that Nostradamus had some market charts showing the S&P at 5000 by 2020-so looks like we're right on target. Also, be aware that the return of Hale-Bopp will coincide with a major correction-sometime around 4534. And by then, we might be able to better assess Birinyi's predictions with a bit more statistical validity-assuming of course, he doesn't retire ahead of time. ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 22:23:26 -0400 Whatever will be, will be
The future's not ours to see
Que Sera, Sera,
What will be, will be"

And the sample size of the correct prognostication is...3? Over how many years as a ratio of human existence?
I recall that Nostradamus had some market charts showing the S&P at 5000 by 2020-so looks like we're right on target. Also, be aware that the return of Hale-Bopp will coincide with a major correction-sometime around 4534. And by then, we might be able to better assess Birinyi's predictions with a bit more statistical validity-assuming of course, he doesn't retire ahead of time. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1024511?source=feed#comment-18830791 18830791 I had my usual bear call spreads in place, but I anticipate this sort of crap. Average investors shouldn't have to go to bed wondering if a major company will sell off-for no obvious reason. ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 21:14:21 -0400 I had my usual bear call spreads in place, but I anticipate this sort of crap. Average investors shouldn't have to go to bed wondering if a major company will sell off-for no obvious reason. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/currents/post/1024511?source=feed#comment-18830571 18830571 Tue, 14 May 2013 21:04:54 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1434542/comments?source=feed#comment-18824672 18824672 Tue, 14 May 2013 17:07:39 -0400 http://seekingalpha.com/article/1434151/comments?source=feed#comment-18824472 18824472 Coal and gold (and oil of course) are a trader's delight. Who needs fiddlers three? ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 17:00:12 -0400 Coal and gold (and oil of course) are a trader's delight. Who needs fiddlers three? ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1434391/comments?source=feed#comment-18823542 18823542 The Fed created a lab where the banks could borrow short-term money, and arbitrage the differential in time. Of course, a naive child might simply ask... well, why didn't the Fed just give them the money...why the elaborate ruse?
Rational players, armed with the principles of Pareto and Nash, simply bought a cheaper house (same square footage, etc), and walked away from the upside down/underwater debt. Unable to benefit from the afore-referenced ruse, they instituted their own arbitrage.
So, consumers should be better off-ceterus paribus-and, we find that auto sales, general retail and travel have fared much better. So, the laws of economics, if not the laws of the jungle, prevail. The government via direct bailouts and Fed machinatons have acted as a de facto guarantor of defaulted or reduced loans-making banks whole again-as if the collapse never happened.
In some cases, various government agencies have clawed back some of the largesse-where it seemed that the banks were not only getting a total reimbursement, but enormous profits as well.
But it's all in the game, all in the wonderful game of politics, intrigue, crony capitalism, corruption, bribery, chicanery and goodness gracious...legal wrangling. So, if Rip Van Winkle wakes up and asks what happened, we can tell him that subprime was contained all along.
Now, get out there and buy a house, a boat and a car-do your part for the cause. As Dinah says...'see the USA in a Chevrolet...' ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 16:29:07 -0400 The Fed created a lab where the banks could borrow short-term money, and arbitrage the differential in time. Of course, a naive child might simply ask... well, why didn't the Fed just give them the money...why the elaborate ruse?
Rational players, armed with the principles of Pareto and Nash, simply bought a cheaper house (same square footage, etc), and walked away from the upside down/underwater debt. Unable to benefit from the afore-referenced ruse, they instituted their own arbitrage.
So, consumers should be better off-ceterus paribus-and, we find that auto sales, general retail and travel have fared much better. So, the laws of economics, if not the laws of the jungle, prevail. The government via direct bailouts and Fed machinatons have acted as a de facto guarantor of defaulted or reduced loans-making banks whole again-as if the collapse never happened.
In some cases, various government agencies have clawed back some of the largesse-where it seemed that the banks were not only getting a total reimbursement, but enormous profits as well.
But it's all in the game, all in the wonderful game of politics, intrigue, crony capitalism, corruption, bribery, chicanery and goodness gracious...legal wrangling. So, if Rip Van Winkle wakes up and asks what happened, we can tell him that subprime was contained all along.
Now, get out there and buy a house, a boat and a car-do your part for the cause. As Dinah says...'see the USA in a Chevrolet...' ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432651/comments?source=feed#comment-18803101 18803101 As Keynes noted, of all the elusive variables that can be extrapolated with any degree of certainty, population dynamics stands near the top of the list. The pig and lipstick analogy comes to mind-but that's a pollyanna metaphor. More appropriate is something that delivers a kick to the gut and a slap across the face. Thus, our politicians content themselves with performing cosmetic surgery on a corpse-and announce their success with great jubilation. And, in the process, denounce one of the most gifted minds of the 20th century as something akin to Lex Luther. ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 08:51:53 -0400 As Keynes noted, of all the elusive variables that can be extrapolated with any degree of certainty, population dynamics stands near the top of the list. The pig and lipstick analogy comes to mind-but that's a pollyanna metaphor. More appropriate is something that delivers a kick to the gut and a slap across the face. Thus, our politicians content themselves with performing cosmetic surgery on a corpse-and announce their success with great jubilation. And, in the process, denounce one of the most gifted minds of the 20th century as something akin to Lex Luther. ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1432141/comments?source=feed#comment-18800861 18800861 Scenario planning, along with game theory application, allows one to confront the unknown and capitalize on the uncertainty-which always and forever permeates all human institutions.
The future should be conceptualized as an array or assortment of possibilities. This would include assigning some risk factor to both the best and worst, as well as incorporating mid-range points. But, as always, those having an edge which generates a positive expectancy, will welcome the challenges.
More than anything though, nothing beats a competitive attitude, balanced and refined by the wisdom of the ages.
(Socrates would most likely be deemed 'subversive' as he was in 399 BC). ]]> Tue, 14 May 2013 07:49:46 -0400 Scenario planning, along with game theory application, allows one to confront the unknown and capitalize on the uncertainty-which always and forever permeates all human institutions.
The future should be conceptualized as an array or assortment of possibilities. This would include assigning some risk factor to both the best and worst, as well as incorporating mid-range points. But, as always, those having an edge which generates a positive expectancy, will welcome the challenges.
More than anything though, nothing beats a competitive attitude, balanced and refined by the wisdom of the ages.
(Socrates would most likely be deemed 'subversive' as he was in 399 BC). ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1431781/comments?source=feed#comment-18793481 18793481 I recently sold puts on both DUST and NUGT, and have created a delta neutral strategy. Aside from the fact that these ETFs relate to gold, I don't care if they relate to widgets, gadgets or gizmos.
So, while the author is gold-neutral, I'm delta neutral on ETfs with volatility and fat option premium. I'm pulling for both the ardent goldbugs and the gold haters. I hope they come out fighting for 15 rounds, and the bout ends in a draw.
]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 22:39:30 -0400 I recently sold puts on both DUST and NUGT, and have created a delta neutral strategy. Aside from the fact that these ETFs relate to gold, I don't care if they relate to widgets, gadgets or gizmos.
So, while the author is gold-neutral, I'm delta neutral on ETfs with volatility and fat option premium. I'm pulling for both the ardent goldbugs and the gold haters. I hope they come out fighting for 15 rounds, and the bout ends in a draw.
]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1428951/comments?source=feed#comment-18792981 18792981 "No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main
.........................
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee."
John Donne ]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 22:17:53 -0400 "No man is an island,
Entire of itself.
Each is a piece of the continent,
A part of the main
.........................
Each man's death diminishes me,
For I am involved in mankind.
Therefore, send not to know
For whom the bell tolls,
It tolls for thee."
John Donne ]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1429901/comments?source=feed#comment-18792261 18792261 The sage words of Livermore are ignored daily: it's not about being a bull or a bear-it's about being right. "I was not, and I have never felt that I was wedded indissolubly to one or the other side of the market."
Every day, millions of automobiles crowd busy roads. Most people don't concern themselves with the likelihood of an accident. The news media will not spend a moment of time to reflect and ponder what would happen if 10,000 people had car wrecks. Indeed, quite a few will suffer casualties-some fatal.
But again, there is no continuous news coverage-no in depth analysis-hardly a peep actually. Yet, we are reminded to fasten our safety belts, don't drink/text and drive, and obey traffic signals. In short, we are told to practice safe driving and maintain insurance. Insurance companies compete continuously on national TV and in all forms of media. It's hard to imagine one even driving their vehicle without appropriate insurance coverage.
HOWEVER, when it comes to something as important as our life's savings-perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars of our hard-earned money-we do what? What we do is exhibit the most counter-productive biases known to psychologists, to justify our infinite wisdom that it's just not possible-not at all possible- to lose our money in the stock market. Nothing but blue sky and smooth sailing ahead!
Did you hear about the three little pigs? It's a long complicated story for many, but the third little pig built his house of bricks and insured his portfolio with dynamic collars. In fact, he made so much money just trading his collars that he paid off his C sub-prime mortgage.
"BE PREPARED" Boy Scout motto]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 21:52:00 -0400 The sage words of Livermore are ignored daily: it's not about being a bull or a bear-it's about being right. "I was not, and I have never felt that I was wedded indissolubly to one or the other side of the market."
Every day, millions of automobiles crowd busy roads. Most people don't concern themselves with the likelihood of an accident. The news media will not spend a moment of time to reflect and ponder what would happen if 10,000 people had car wrecks. Indeed, quite a few will suffer casualties-some fatal.
But again, there is no continuous news coverage-no in depth analysis-hardly a peep actually. Yet, we are reminded to fasten our safety belts, don't drink/text and drive, and obey traffic signals. In short, we are told to practice safe driving and maintain insurance. Insurance companies compete continuously on national TV and in all forms of media. It's hard to imagine one even driving their vehicle without appropriate insurance coverage.
HOWEVER, when it comes to something as important as our life's savings-perhaps hundreds of thousands of dollars of our hard-earned money-we do what? What we do is exhibit the most counter-productive biases known to psychologists, to justify our infinite wisdom that it's just not possible-not at all possible- to lose our money in the stock market. Nothing but blue sky and smooth sailing ahead!
Did you hear about the three little pigs? It's a long complicated story for many, but the third little pig built his house of bricks and insured his portfolio with dynamic collars. In fact, he made so much money just trading his collars that he paid off his C sub-prime mortgage.
"BE PREPARED" Boy Scout motto]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1429351/comments?source=feed#comment-18760521 18760521 For example, just observe the pros and cons of whether one should buy or sell gold. Or silver. Or whatever. And, of course, millions play the lottery, bet on sporting events, and even attempt to game the weather.
I remind myself every morning that I can't predict a damn thing, and that whatever conclusions I might derive from any observation are hopelessly biased-and even if I'm 'right', it's a matter of randomness. The only thing I know for sure is that my fellow homo sapiens will predict any number of things, and will be supremely confident in their judgment. But that is my edge, that is the 'x' that I can understand.]]> Mon, 13 May 2013 10:08:06 -0400 For example, just observe the pros and cons of whether one should buy or sell gold. Or silver. Or whatever. And, of course, millions play the lottery, bet on sporting events, and even attempt to game the weather.
I remind myself every morning that I can't predict a damn thing, and that whatever conclusions I might derive from any observation are hopelessly biased-and even if I'm 'right', it's a matter of randomness. The only thing I know for sure is that my fellow homo sapiens will predict any number of things, and will be supremely confident in their judgment. But that is my edge, that is the 'x' that I can understand.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427911/comments?source=feed#comment-18736241 18736241 It's always amazing that the kids shriek and yell, laugh and cry-all in the same day. Whether you like the smell of napalm in the morning, or the scent of magnolias in the evening-it's a wonderful game.
All these worlds I give to you-just don't try to predict.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 12:53:06 -0400 It's always amazing that the kids shriek and yell, laugh and cry-all in the same day. Whether you like the smell of napalm in the morning, or the scent of magnolias in the evening-it's a wonderful game.
All these worlds I give to you-just don't try to predict.]]> http://seekingalpha.com/article/1427801/comments?source=feed#comment-18735711 18735711 A so-called bull market is not a function of intervening years. The alpha and omega of any socio-economic move is a function of humanity.
To assert that 'it's time' for another bull or bear market is less logical than asserting it's time for another asteroid strike-or even the rise of another Hitler.]]> Sun, 12 May 2013 12:36:20 -0400 A so-called bull market is not a function of intervening years. The alpha and omega of any socio-economic move is a function of humanity.
To assert that 'it's time' for another bull or bear market is less logical than asserting it's time for another asteroid strike-or even the rise of another Hitler.]]>