Seeking Alpha

convoluted

convoluted
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View convoluted's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    Yes- the government is entrusted by the people to protect and preserve the basic precepts of individual liberty. We all have the right to strive to create a better life/ economic opportunity. When the government favors one of us over another, on the pretext that we are more important, we weaken all that we seek to embrace.
    Aug 13, 2015. 05:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    The glaring problem is the abject failure of the government to adhere to the spirit and precedent of basic equality. The mere phrase "too big to fail" is poisonous to the millions of citizens that pledge allegiance to the flag, and whose parents and grandparents gave their lives in some foreign land in order to sustain and protect this nation.
    There is still a smoldering resentment among numerous small businesses that had their credit lines yanked, and still struggle to obtain loans for business purposes- not to arbitrage billions, that benefit the ultra- privileged. Until this, and similar discrepancies are honestly addressed, the discontent will persist.
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Siegel Expects A Correction: Where To Position [View article]
    Anyone can see that small caps have declined. I don't see that as a warning sign, but rather an opportunity. In fact, I suggested selling 500 TZA puts a few weeks ago.
    So far, that call has made a lot of money. But, the perspective is this: the glass is neither half full nor half empty. Likewise, life and games in general, are multi- dimensional.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Reflection - What Would Happen If A Market Gave Investors More Time To Pause For Thought? [View article]
    The futures would likely have a large dispersion, but much would depend on typical events that move a stock overnight anyway. So, perhaps more compression would be released on the first moments of trading. Option decay would be interesting.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarians Buying Up XLE [View article]
    C'mon folks- sell LEAP puts and hedge the downside if you feel the need. The question is not whether to be bullish or bearish, but whether the world will come to an end. Also, please, there is no falling knife. The tide comes in and it goes out again- an endless cycle. You can sell calls and/ or bear call spreads to offset that which we call time.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post REJECTED!!! Weak Bounce Wednesday - Hoping Against Hope [View instapost]
    TA is predictive because it's predictive. Very circular, and hence logically specious, but the vast majority of minds are addicted to post hoc conclusions.
    As a CPA, I detested any reference to TA, and would break out in a rendition of "Puff the Major Dragon" but a funny thing happened on the way to cosmic realization- GAAP contained its own fairy tales.
    So, in my later years I just see an amusing game. Devoid of labels such as bull and bear, GAAP or non- GAAP, just the cry of the sheep and their keepers, creates the music of opportunity.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Productivity And The Dueling Economies [View article]
    Very astute observation. A continuation of "The Judas Economy".

    The veracity of gubermant statistics?
    "Oh what a tangled web we weave,
    When first we practice to deceive."
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Going Back; Eighth Anniversary [View article]
    Bingo- and the corresponding but contrived assumptions as to the collateral stability was but a mockery- mortgage insurers were out to lunch.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Financial Engineering, Not Fundamentals, Is Driving Markets [View article]
    I would say that one first has to have a perspective, a philosophy, a way of assimilating all phenomenon across the entire human experience. What is the essential, underlying purpose of financial engineering (whether it's China buying the market, or the USA managing S&P futures, etc). Isn't the rationale to provide the illusion of fundamentals (again, however defined, as earnings, future prospects, etc).
    If you throw in currency manipulation, you have a complete three-ring circus. It's all under the big-top, complete with clowns and jugglers (analysts, news media, Fed-heads)- It's a con, it's a hustle, it's fortune-telling and card reading. What might have been, what might yet to be. You lay your money down, you take your chances.
    But, there are rules to the game, which are to be found in a vast repository of wisdom: "To every thing there is a season, and a time to every purpose under the heaven,
    A time to be born, and a time to die; a time to plant and a time to pluck up that which is planted

    A time to cast away stones, and a time to gather stones together

    A time to get, and a time to lose; a time to keep and a time to cast away..."

    The most common violations of this wisdom are as follows: (a)not understanding that there is a time to pluck up that which is planted; and, (b)that there is a time to cast away.
    But to really understand all the brouhaha, suggested reading for today is "The Greatest Show on Earth" by Richard Dawkins.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:54 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Oil Price: How Low Is Low? [View article]
    It's actually pretty easy. Oil will not drop to zero. And, the corollary is that each dollar down carries a revised probability distribution, both as to time and price.
    The lower the price, the more you buy. The higher the price, the more you short.
    Hedged trades are the interim opportunity.
    But wherein do we find the bottom? Sorry, wrong question.
    Aug 11, 2015. 03:05 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons Why Oil Will Not Trade Much Below $40 [View article]
    Agree- the constraining variable is geological. How much oil is there irrespective of who does the fraking?
    Perhaps that variable is unknown at the moment.
    Aug 10, 2015. 11:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • At the open [View news story]
    YES!
    Aug 10, 2015. 06:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: The Pent-Up Demographic Demand Is There [View article]
    Had to give you a 'like' on that. I'm too old to start over.
    Aug 10, 2015. 06:10 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What's The Difference Between Fed Policy And The 'Inconvenient Truth'? [View article]
    Excellent article AND well considered thoughts and perspective expressed in the comments.
    There's also a psychological impetus created with a self- fulfilling prophecy. The world has become Fed watchers, with millions betting on the odds of a 25 bps proposition. It reminds me of the classic scene where a poor soul stands straddled across the bridge or window ledge, and the crowd below is both heckling and offering sympathy: will he leap into oblivion? The music gets louder, more intense. The faces in the crowd are turned upward, each representing some primeval emotion.
    And then- another commercial? Yikes!
    Aug 10, 2015. 09:31 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Housing: The Pent-Up Demographic Demand Is There [View article]
    The neat thing about home ownership- I.e.having legal title to a parcel of real property- is that (a) your kids will quickly convert the prized family home to cold, hard cash upon your death, or (b) you will deed it over to the same nursing home that so many of your old buddies did- just so some attendant will feed you and haul you to the bathroom.
    But what about all the memories of 'home sweet home'?
    Well, with dementia you're not likely to recall the time the pipes froze, or the roof leaked, or you lost the battle with the property tax people.
    But, a man's home is his castle- assuming you pay the mortgage, avoid divorce and don't live next door to a meth lab.
    Aug 9, 2015. 10:42 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
2,284 Comments
2,903 Likes