Seeking Alpha


Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
View convoluted's Comments BY TICKER:
Latest  |  Highest rated
  • Is A Bear Market Starting? Prepare To Be Mauled, Down And Up [View article]
    Getting slaughtered by one's ignorance and bias is a terrible price to pay. But, I want to thank all of the eternal pollyannas for the stampede out of the market.
    "It's a beautiful noise, coming up from the's a sound that I love."
    Neil Diamond
    Aug 24, 2015. 04:48 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Time To Hedge Is Now - Or Is It Too Late? [View article]
    With regard to puts, or any strategy that deals with "down" you first need to reflect on whether you want to play offense or defense. But, it's not a mutually exclusive proposition- just useful in assessing one's basic predilection.
    in a defensive sense, the concept of insurance is useful. How much risk do you want to cover, and what deductible fits?
    In the past couple of days, my put ratios (back spreads) have worked great. I put these in play during periods of euphoria- very little management needed. I also suggested in various comments that I sold TZA LEAP puts (when TZA was well under 10). To me, this was a no lose position, given my other holdings and strategies.
    A more complicated question relates to cashing in your downside chips. Unlike a house fire, which occurs within hours, and damage becomes known, a market event can be a slow motion fire- or a fire that was thought to be extinguished, only to smolder and flare up again.
    Aug 23, 2015. 11:29 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why This Market Plunge Is Irrational - And What To Buy Now [View article]
    As usual, the great majority of people seek answers to the wrong questions.
    The stock market is a game which incorporates all the imperfections of the human mind. True rationality is not within our ability- it never has been and it never will be.
    Thus, to conclude that the sell- off ( if that suffices as one's perspective), is "irrational" merely begs the question; for we lack true rationality. So, if irrational moves occur- how do we profit therefrom?
    Aug 21, 2015. 09:24 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Even If Struggling Deere Delivers, History Shows Street May Shrug [View article]
    I have longer dated puts on DE which are already profitable.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Crude Oil: Where Is The Bottom? [View article]
    That's the strategic way to think about quasi-random events. Every comment, and most are well conceived, is an extrapolation of uncertainty. Well defined trends always have some thematic components that enhance predictability- at least for some time period, n. We also know that highly emotional moves will over- shoot, and equilibrium will only appear thereafter.
    I have both short and long positions. The short positions, as harvested, represent real profit. The long positions represent receivables ( or one might view such long positions as having an adjusted basis- offset by the short profits.)
    In the scheme of things, either short or long positions can be managed.
    Aug 20, 2015. 11:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equities On Wile E. Coyote Air Run [View article]
    Beep! Beep!
    Aug 15, 2015. 11:19 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Prices: Best And Worst Case Scenarios [View article]
    Don't chase the butterfly- it will come to rest on those that are patient.
    Aug 15, 2015. 11:16 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    Yes- the government is entrusted by the people to protect and preserve the basic precepts of individual liberty. We all have the right to strive to create a better life/ economic opportunity. When the government favors one of us over another, on the pretext that we are more important, we weaken all that we seek to embrace.
    Aug 13, 2015. 05:02 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Something Is Still Ridiculously Wrong [View article]
    The glaring problem is the abject failure of the government to adhere to the spirit and precedent of basic equality. The mere phrase "too big to fail" is poisonous to the millions of citizens that pledge allegiance to the flag, and whose parents and grandparents gave their lives in some foreign land in order to sustain and protect this nation.
    There is still a smoldering resentment among numerous small businesses that had their credit lines yanked, and still struggle to obtain loans for business purposes- not to arbitrage billions, that benefit the ultra- privileged. Until this, and similar discrepancies are honestly addressed, the discontent will persist.
    Aug 13, 2015. 01:44 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Siegel Expects A Correction: Where To Position [View article]
    Anyone can see that small caps have declined. I don't see that as a warning sign, but rather an opportunity. In fact, I suggested selling 500 TZA puts a few weeks ago.
    So far, that call has made a lot of money. But, the perspective is this: the glass is neither half full nor half empty. Likewise, life and games in general, are multi- dimensional.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:08 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On Reflection - What Would Happen If A Market Gave Investors More Time To Pause For Thought? [View article]
    The futures would likely have a large dispersion, but much would depend on typical events that move a stock overnight anyway. So, perhaps more compression would be released on the first moments of trading. Option decay would be interesting.
    Aug 12, 2015. 07:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Contrarians Buying Up XLE [View article]
    C'mon folks- sell LEAP puts and hedge the downside if you feel the need. The question is not whether to be bullish or bearish, but whether the world will come to an end. Also, please, there is no falling knife. The tide comes in and it goes out again- an endless cycle. You can sell calls and/ or bear call spreads to offset that which we call time.
    Aug 12, 2015. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Post REJECTED!!! Weak Bounce Wednesday - Hoping Against Hope [View instapost]
    TA is predictive because it's predictive. Very circular, and hence logically specious, but the vast majority of minds are addicted to post hoc conclusions.
    As a CPA, I detested any reference to TA, and would break out in a rendition of "Puff the Major Dragon" but a funny thing happened on the way to cosmic realization- GAAP contained its own fairy tales.
    So, in my later years I just see an amusing game. Devoid of labels such as bull and bear, GAAP or non- GAAP, just the cry of the sheep and their keepers, creates the music of opportunity.
    Aug 12, 2015. 11:38 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Productivity And The Dueling Economies [View article]
    Very astute observation. A continuation of "The Judas Economy".

    The veracity of gubermant statistics?
    "Oh what a tangled web we weave,
    When first we practice to deceive."
    Aug 12, 2015. 10:24 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Still No Going Back; Eighth Anniversary [View article]
    Bingo- and the corresponding but contrived assumptions as to the collateral stability was but a mockery- mortgage insurers were out to lunch.
    Aug 11, 2015. 09:35 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment