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  • The ECB's Lunatic Full Monty Treatment [View article]
    "A fire broke out backstage in a theater. The clown came out to warn the public; they thought it was a joke and applauded. He repeated it; the acclaim was even greater. I think that's just how the world will come to an end: to general applause from wits who believe it's a joke."

    "Diapsalmata"- Kierkegaard
    Mar 9, 2015. 01:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Nobody Truly Wants To Own This Market [View article]
    Ideal time for LEAP collars- but such a universal application would create a rational market. And, besides, it would require one to study for about 30 minutes.
    That would impinge on watching the many artistic and high- brow TV programs popular today- such as: "Naked Fat People on Broadway", "Housewives of the Bayou" and "Bridezilla Meets Extraterrestrials".
    Mar 9, 2015. 12:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Guru Says Oil Goes Higher; Meanwhile It Is Going Nowhere - For Now [View article]
    I play it from different strategies, but understanding the broad sweep of history, and human propensity relative thereto, makes the game very profitable.
    I would add that my strategies are not so focused on "where" a price might go, but, rather, where it will not go over any n time period. I used to get questions like "where do you think the S&P will end the year?"
    I would always make some inane reply..."well, I think I know the number thru December 28th, but then I get a little fuzzy."
    Mar 9, 2015. 10:35 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Earnings Recession Of 2015: Stock Market In Danger? [View article]
    CPA firms still under pressure. Quarterly reporting remains a cess pool and quagmire-responsible for the demise of many souls over the years.
    Mar 6, 2015. 05:28 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Selling Goldilocks -- The Absent Wall Of Worry [View article]
    Put ratio backspreads in full bloom today-like watching a flower via time lapse photography. And to get paid for this nonsense!
    What happened? All the bots acting in unison over the fact that Joe Down-on-his-luck finally got a mere pittance of a job! Is that bad???
    Well, sure-interest rates headed up.
    What about GDP?
    This tired old record has been played so many times that it's warped around the edges.
    It's Friday night-let's go see Bones at the Paramount.
    Mar 6, 2015. 04:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why The Housing Market Won't Go Ballistic This Spring [View article]
    It appears that tiny houses on wheels and tree houses are set to go ballistic.
    I'd have to string a dozen or so tiny houses together to contemplate jumping on board with that millennial fad.
    Why not just get an RV?
    I hate to tell you folks this, but we're all going to end up in a nursing home, trying to remember our name. We're not likely to even remember all the mcmansions and beach houses we were once so proud of-and, without good planning, that nursing home will take your house anyway.
    Mar 5, 2015. 01:12 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Seven Do's And Don'ts Of ETF Trading [View article]
    The advent of ETFs allow an unsophisticated player to better manage risk. And, although trading costs/commissions are important, it's a de minimis cost-certainly in comparison to historical fees.
    In the past, Joe Retail might have been long his entire portfolio of $500,000. Now, he can allocate some amount to an inverse ETF. And, it's now much easier to sell covered calls for additional income.
    A specific example which incorporates recent (and continuing) events relates to oil related instruments. If Joe had $50,000 in XOM, SLB, EOG, etc. he is probably a bit concerned (perhaps even upset). Even $2,000 of SCO would have put Joe in a much better position.
    This may seem a rather trite illustration, but if Joe reduces his downdraft by just $500, and his twin Bob (who copies Joe in all respects but for the SCO play), rejects that move, and they continue forward until all eternity with no further changes-the present value of this minor deviation will be astronomical.
    Mar 4, 2015. 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Real Estate Is Doomed - Part 1: The Fed [View article]
    Housing has been a favored creature since the Great Depression. The FHA, VA, FNMA (and later GNMA, Freddie Mac, etc)- Further, S&L's, mortgage bankers, credit unions, etc have created all sorts of instruments (variable rate mortgages, negative am, mortgages with caps, etc, etc)-
    And, of course, creativity with securitization enhanced sub-prime, interest only loans, investment loans, second homes......
    And, last but perhaps not least, tax policy has allowed deductions for interest, property taxes and depreciation for investment property.
    We have to conclude that, as a society, we feel that housing is a de facto religion. You are expected to be a member of some congregation...some residential neighborhood.
    Housing is woven into the tapestry of most cultures of the world. It defines us to a great extent.
    Good or bad? It is what it is.
    Central planners and their constituents are inextricably linked, singing the same ditty...'gimme a home, gimme a home, where the deer and the antelope do their thing...where often is heard a gunshot and police siren, and the skies are filled with smoke and mortgages...'
    Close your eyes and click your heels: 'there's no place like home, there's no place like home...'
    Mar 3, 2015. 04:15 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Fortune's Formula: The Untold Story Of The Scientific Betting System That Beat The Casinos And Wall Street [View article]
    Mar 3, 2015. 03:36 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Refining Is King - It's More Than The Strike [View article]
    Short VLO referenced earlier working great.
    Mar 2, 2015. 11:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil: Refining Is King - It's More Than The Strike [View article]
    Just instituted a hedged short on VLO. This is not so much a substantive perspective on refinery prospects, but a realization that all mo-mo will eventually morph into a go-go.
    Mar 2, 2015. 09:56 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese Web/mobile stocks slump as yuan declines [View news story]
    BIDU also down considerably past few days.
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zillow's Data Does Not Bode Well For Future Case-Shiller Releases [View article]
    Parts of Florida have cooled considerably. Atlanta very tepid overall, although I understand that homes under 300k holding up somewhat-more expensive homes sitting on market a very, very long time.
    I've gone through some homes at and above $2M-some sitting over 3 years without an offer. There are some great deals-but they may become even greater deals.
    Feb 27, 2015. 04:37 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Lessons From A Dozen Years Of Short Selling [View article]
    I don't waste my time looking for short prospects, nor do I look for the pharma with the magic elixir.
    With all the ETF/ETN, index, binary options and shares-why not simply establish arb strategies reflective of basic game theory? And why in the hell get emotional about all of this?
    Yesterday I made money on BIDU put spreads (bull put). I left the short call spreads in place, and collected big on them this morning. I don't care which result came first. (I started with offsetting spreads-I was assured to win one side of the bet).
    I know at all times exactly what the max exposure is, but more importantly, I also know that I can change said exposure in a flash. Generally, there is no exposure due to the rules I establish.
    As I've said before, I sell options. I am, in essence, acting as the casino. It would be perfectly fine with me if the underlying stocks did absolutely nothing-I just want old man time to do his work.
    While most ask where will a stock (price) go-I merely seek to ask the opposite-where will price not go within t(n)?
    I realize I hear a different drummer-and the beat goes on.
    Feb 27, 2015. 12:45 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Biggest Risk In The Market May Not Be What You Think [View article]
    The people that can least afford to lose money in the market are the ones that know absolutely nothing about insurance and dynamic hedging.
    Ignorance is bliss?
    Feb 27, 2015. 10:25 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment