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convoluted

convoluted
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  • Reuters/UofM Consumer Sentiment [View news story]
    Here's your answer WispokerGuy-straight from the Chairman of the Board:


    "That's life (that's life) that's what all people say
    You're riding high in April,
    Shot down in May
    But I know I'm gonna change their tune,
    When I'm back on top, back on top in June

    I said that's life (that's life) and as funny as it may seem
    Some people get their kicks,
    Steppin' on a dream
    But I just can't let it, let it get me down,
    'Cause this fine old world, it keeps spinnin' around

    I've been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate,
    A poet, a pawn and a king
    I've been up and down and over and out
    And I know one thing
    Each time I find myself flat on my face,
    I pick myself up and get back in the race

    That's life (that's life), I tell you, I can't deny it,
    I thought of quitting, baby
    But my heart just ain't gonna buy it
    'And if I didn't think it was worth one single try,
    I'd jump right on a big bird and then I'd fly

    I've been a puppet, a pauper, a pirate,
    A poet, a pawn and a king
    I've been up and down and over and out
    And I know one thing
    Each time I find myself flat on my face,
    I just pick myself up and get back in the race

    That's life (that's life), that's life, I can't deny it,
    Many times I thought of cuttin' out, but my heart won't buy it
    But if there's nothing shaken come here this July,
    I'm gonna roll myself up in a big ball and die
    My, my"

    Frank Sinatra
    Jul 18, 2015. 12:59 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What The Latest Time Use Survey Says About American Culture... And Netflix [View article]
    My father seldom allowed me to watch TV- but if I earned enough money I could walk to town and watch a Sat afternoon double- feature for a dime. Popcorn and cherry snow cone was another dime.
    Now that I can afford as many video devices as I want- I don't have NFLX. I prefer to read.
    I realize that I'm the last of a dying breed. But I do enjoy trading the stock.
    Jul 14, 2015. 05:56 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Crowd Continues To Get U.S. Treasury Bonds Wrong [View article]
    Yes- well written article. My 2 cents is that bonds can be profitably traded, especially with the new ETFs. The ranges favor playing spreads- no earnings surprises, tight bid- ask on options. Granted, it's not like shorting China or guessing which way NFLX will go- but a great play for risk averse, premium earning types.
    Would encourage author to publish more on 'gap'- very interesting and revealing subject.
    Jul 14, 2015. 05:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil's Big Swoon - Price Volatility Ahead [View article]
    It's a matter of preference, but I can buy LEAP calls and sell shorter term options to reduce the cost of the LEAPs. The commodity is also more reactive to various reports-which create opportunities.
    While it's unlikely that SLB or HAL will go out of business-there's always the probability-however slight-that an event unique to the company can create problems. Think BP, RIG, APC.
    You can protect your interest in a single company, of course, but that requires additional expense. And, for me, I'm not the active trader I used to be, so I don't want to worry with how to position for quarterly reports. All I have to do is just watch oil. The last thing to consider is the proliferation of ETFs-USO, UCO, SCO, etc, etc, that allow additional flexibility. I have various option strategies on all of these instruments, so that I can both capture time premium, and play directional moves.
    It's really just how we want to play the game.
    Happy hunting!
    Jul 13, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Quit Worrying About Oil [View article]
    The issue is not to predict where the price of oil is headed, but rather to determine at what absurd price ( up or down) oil will not go- and then sell options accordingly.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Chinese tech stocks surge; CQQQ +11.1% [View news story]
    I established several call ratio backspreads on many of my 'favorite' Chinese internet stocks (which means if they do nothing or zoom up in value, I make money). BUT, this is a play on the sheer lack of integrity of the indicated markets-nothing more. I'm not analyzing a damn thing, except the rot, panic and usurpation of freedom. In short, my strategy, after making a bundle via shorting, is to merely play a lottery ticket on the modus operandi of dictatorial 'government.'
    Jul 9, 2015. 02:05 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Rebounds But Worries Persist [View article]
    Well, the narrative myth has become more subtle over time. If you study the markets during the times of J. Livermore it would resemble a financial version of the Wild West. What we witness now is more of a 'facilitative crony capitalism' baked in TBTF and a fuzzy sort of national security interests.
    Jul 9, 2015. 10:03 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour [View news story]
    What's important is whether you're ringing the register-NOW! I'm not the type to risk my money on others 'sorting things out.'
    What is, is-whether it be characterized as 'signal or noise.'
    That I'm making a huge amount of money by shorting Chinese internet stocks is a real signal-I'll make the noise as I collect.
    I'm listening to George Jones this morning, and he could've written this song for long only Chinese stock market players: "He Stopped Loving Her Today."
    Jul 8, 2015. 11:44 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • China Is Down 5% - Why Are You Looking At Greece? [View article]
    Chanos was among the early voices, and I'm sure his coffers are overflowing this morning. I have indicated on numerous occasions that I am short several Chinese internet stocks. To me, it's all been very simple: the masses want something that's not there-or as Gertrude Stein said: "there's no there, there."
    Optimism without realism; assumptions devoid of conceptual precision-create the dry kindling that merely awaits the light of Diogenes.
    Professor Emeritus (Harvard) E. O. Wilson, did pioneering research on chemical communications in ant colonies. And so the animals with the advanced pre-frontal cortex scurry to and fro this morning in similar fashion as the ants responding to an intruder. It was just as inevitable as the night follows the day-a genetic predisposition to follow the wildebeest, stampeding across the Serengeti.
    Jul 8, 2015. 11:19 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Long The S&P 500 But Feeling A Little Uneasy? PUTX May Be Your Answer [View article]
    Consider selling put spreads, with leverage, vs cash -secured with no downside protection. Which is optimal?
    of course, in some cases one might not care if they're assigned. An example ( for me) is selling 500 Jan 2016 TZA puts (10 strike). I don't need a long lower strike put here.
    I agree with several comments that an individual can do a much better job- selling puts is just one very basic tool- the veteran combines selling puts with numerous other strategies.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Deceleration Returned To Home Prices? [View article]
    Yes-the spring and summer are the traditional buying times, and we're at least 3/4 of the way. I've spoken with some agents that haven't even had offers on properties over $500k-listed for a year or longer.
    I don't doubt that there is some pent up demand, but why is it still represented by very shallow and tepid real results? Hedge funds made an unprecedented foray into the residential market. They are now out. I read numerous comments that housing would 'break-out' this summer. Well?
    Of course, the publicly held builders don't represent the total market by any stretch, but they are the ones with the financial advantage. If I could drive around and pick out builders to short, I'd have a field day.
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Deceleration Returned To Home Prices? [View article]
    Hi Anthony- ITB is more of a pure play re retail builders- no ancillaries like HD- but I just read that there is a new ETF designed to short home builders- don't recall symbol but think it was in an article by Tom Lydon-
    The market desperately wants home builders to go up- that's why I use 27.50 as an initial review, and when I pull the trigger I always assume a run up to 29 or so- but the consistency of failing before that point has been incredible-
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wynn Resorts: Set To Double By 2018 [View article]
    A big bounce but not too late.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wynn Resorts: Set To Double By 2018 [View article]
    Looks like selling LEAP puts was a reasonable risk.
    Here's something else to think about: cities like Atlanta very interested in casinos. Florida itching to get in on the action.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Window For Hiking Rates Continues To Close [View article]
    I thought 60/40 odds on one baby hike at or before year end. I'm about ready to flip those odds the other way- which also implies a substantial cooling of the economy.
    In talking with several realtors, it now seems that pricing above $250k has become challenging. If wages continue depressed, how in the hell can higher mortgage rates do anything but push more and more people into renting- or buying tiny houses?
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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