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convoluted

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  • Gilead Sciences Is Poised To Break Out [View article]
    Do a bit of study on 'roll out'. If done properly, assignment is a non-issue.
    May 13, 2015. 10:45 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Stocks close flat as rising yields, weak retail sales data weigh [View news story]
    Yes- much churning. Small caps struggling to reclaim high water mark. Volatility in tight range. Oil seems destined to increase a bit more.
    So, could be good oil' summertime again. NBA, baseball, golf, etc.
    May 13, 2015. 09:37 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Crash May Once Again Be Inevitable [View article]
    If you fear a "crash"- however defined- I submit that you have ignored the Boy Scout motto: "Be Prepared."
    Here's a novel question: how do I take advantage of a "crash?"
    Maybe we start by defining "crash" via Monte Carlo simulation- or think about a range of probabilistic events, accompanied by appropriate strategy sets.
    If you check my stock talk suggestion (about a month ago), I indicated I planned to sell JAN 2016 TZA PUTS ( when TNA was in mid-90's). If you bothered to look at the option chain at that point, you would have noticed a large block of several hundred puts transacted.
    I'm already up on this play- which was initiated to both hedge existing small cap positions, and express my 'tape reading' conclusions. So, I will make money irrespective of whether the market goes up, down or treads water.
    Note that I sold the 10 puts, when TZA briefly dipped below 10.
    We live in a three dimensional world- some physicists think it may be 11 dimensions. But, at a minimum, we experience fluctuations (fully explained or not)- and each of us can develop unique strategies to mitigate same- or, preferably, profit therefrom.
    May 13, 2015. 09:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Don't Need Rising Rates For Lower Home Prices - Rising Age May Be Enough [View article]
    There are coastal areas in Fl where values have resumed, and even exceeded pre- crash levels.
    The 55 plus communities are very vibrant.
    in my second home community, where prices range from 500k to over 3M- several homes over 1M have sold recently. (One had an indoor basketball court). On the other hand, I've noticed several homes in the upper 600's that have been on the market for several months. A few houses down from me, a guy with a young family paid 865k for a home, and promptly finished the basement and added a pool. He now has over 1M in the property.
    At one time, I thought I was reasonably astute in deciphering real estate trends. It seems tougher than ever to make generalizations. I do meet a lot of guys in their 50's that want to downsize- but it seems that they really want to change design more than eliminate a lot of square footage. Also, children and even grandchildren have a gigantic influence on retirement plans. One of my neighbors wants to move, but the wife is extremely worried that her daughter can't manage the little ones. So, he's thinking that they buy a smaller house in Florida, and keep the other one- until the kids/ grandkids stabilize.
    Finally, I get the impression that some people just test the market, and don't really care if they sell or not. And, I also see an increasing number of Asians and Indians looking around. I conclude that housing demand is reasonably vibrant- and those that both desire a home and can readily afford it- are not content to wait several years for some possible discount.
    May 13, 2015. 11:57 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • A Tale Of Two Graphs- Why Bubble Finance Will Fail [View article]
    "What central bank bubble finance has actually unleashed is a self-fueling form of asset-based credit creation. The options, futures and currency markets, for example, are based on what amounts to loans which are collateralized by small fractions (1-10%) of the underlying’s current market value. As valuations rise ever higher, collateral values follow and implicit leverage grows. It is a financial beanstalk."

    Well, I think you've now connected all the dots. However, gambling is an addiction-and the house gives great odds to the card counters-and, a pre-set profit margin to its shareholders. But, I wouldn't have used 'implicit' leverage. It is leverage thus 'derived' from an iterative, and ultimately, indeterminate 'x'.
    May 12, 2015. 03:11 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Tech Bubble? [View article]
    My suggestion would be to change the name YELP to YAMP- as in " I sound my barbaric yamp over the rooftops of the world."
    Been selling puts on BBRY for a couple of years now- that's been very profitable- but I'm told that they make a product.
    Shorted DANG RENN for fun and profit- and nailed some OPEN to the barnyard door.
    But, we need people to get excited about pumping these circus tents so we can have the last laugh.
    Twiddle me at BR 549 ( collect please) for those of you that want my recent short picks. And send 50 cents for postage and handling.
    May 12, 2015. 01:54 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Public Storage made a Buy at Goldman Sachs [View news story]
    Yes, every man, woman and child needs at least one unit.
    May 12, 2015. 10:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Is One Sick Puppy [View article]
    I think "Kool- Aid" is spelled with a "K".
    To what extent has Smith's "invisible hand" been relegated to the ash-heap of antiquated metaphors?
    On some level, society pays a premium for suboptimal delegation. Perhaps we could think of an "Orwellian premium" where society cedes authority to centrally manage complex problems.
    What is sought more than an optimal construct, i.e price discovery/ true discounting?
    The answer is rather simple: system stability. The vast majority of our human brethren have no clue, or interest, in even contemplating, much less articulating, the inherent role of capital markets.
    Thus, a great chasm is predictable, where the quick and powerful will suckle all the nourishment, leaving the dull- minded to seek solace in cultural security blankets.
    May 12, 2015. 10:09 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's Time To Sell Oil: Don't Let The Decline In Inventories Fool You, Supply And Demand Remain Unbalanced [View article]
    Yes-great article and comments.
    I sold a boatload of UCO calls this week.
    And, finally, my oil tanker came in today.
    May 7, 2015. 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • $5,000 Thursday: Making Money In Down Markets [View article]
    Important point. Calls don't track the underlying where volatility changes via even an increase in price. In other words, the value of a call option can actually decrease even where the underlying stock increases. There are a lot of conditions involved, but I think a general truism is that puts tend to hold their value better than calls.
    Therefore, most folks would be better served buying puts against long stock.
    The problem most have is that, unlike a car wreck, which happens in an instant, and where damage is now just a number to be determined, the market crashes over a disjointed path, and over an unknown and indeterminable time period.
    But, I've noticed that over the past few years, Phil has had some excellent suggestions-one of which was to sell BA puts in such a manner as to leave one with a $39 basis. And, frankly, only a scant few people that contribute to this site really provide any real time, actionable advice. Most folks write articles that begin with a question, and not only do they fail to answer said question, the verbiage is devoid of anything actionable.
    I've provided several quick, actionable strategies over the past few years-and if one bothers to check, they'll find I've absolutely nailed it. So, I respect that Phil is willing to stick his neck out. Frankly, of all the so-called contributors, I can't name even 5 folks that spoon feed great trading ideas, for nothing but the desire to help people make a little more money.
    And, from "The Guns of Will Sonnett"...'it ain't bragging if it's true.'
    May 7, 2015. 05:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Toppy Tuesday: 2,120 And Bust, Again... [View article]
    When I saw NFLX at 575, and the rest of the market tanking-I just acted. It was automatic. These are the moments that experience prepares you far, and for which the appropriate decision seems so obvious.
    May 5, 2015. 03:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Buy Twitter Before Periscope, Video Really Take Off [View article]
    Don't have a TWTR or FB account; and no NFLX subscription.
    I suppose I'm missing out-but don't know what I'm missing.
    My father seldom allowed us to watch the 'idiot box' -as he called it. If we did homework, etc I could watch The Falstaff Game of the Week; and some of my favorite westerns.
    If he were still alive, no doubt he would be shocked to see so many people wasting so much time. Time was always valuable in our family. I am so thankful that I was born in the 50's and grew up in the 60's-and that my father gave us a stern look if we even thought about picking up the phone.

    But, if anyone's interested, me and the pup-dog went speckled trout fishing early this morning, came back to the house, had some cereal and thought about what trading adjustments I needed to make. I'm sure many of you have frittered or twittered, streamed and connected with your facebook legions by now-perhaps somewhere along the way, you'll have a moment of quiet reflection.
    May 4, 2015. 03:47 PM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Playbook For Diversification [View article]
    I would suggest that, within the study of biology, that much can be learned from immunology. The chemical process that (a) identifies pathogens and (b) designs complex antibodies to mitigate, and then triumph is the system that allows us to live. In fact, no animals could survive without an immune system.
    But, this process operates without bias or moral problems-it does what is needed to fulfill its unique mission. It is fortunate that we can't 'over-ride' this system-without profound intervention.
    The 'disease' which continues unabated despite logic to the contrary, is that 99.99% of the human animals wish, hope, pray that their 'investment' will go UP. But then, far too many people still smoke, consume too many calories, take too many pain pills, and wonder why the fickle finger of fate rains on their parade.
    Physics? For every action there is an equal and opposite reaction.
    And, there is the second law of thermodynamics.
    So, if you take $1M right now, and it's purely a game of optimality-what do you do? Long, short-what composition? But that's a guess. How do you manage the game once you're in the ring?
    May 4, 2015. 12:20 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell Biotech Stocks Now, Short Them, And Ask Questions Later [View article]
    Let me think a moment: do I buy storm insurance on a clear sunny day, or when a Category 5 is bearing down on my property?
    "Well, Mabel, the last hurricane missed us by 50 miles-I kinda think the good Lord is watching out for us."
    Apr 30, 2015. 09:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Disaster: Following Up On This Morning's $1,000 Tweet [View article]
    That's why I suggested adding a cheap otm long put, and questioned the bull call spreads.
    But, here, I would short about 50 shares for each short put, and add an otm call. I would actually think about selling more puts, but adding the short shares, long otm call with each position.
    Legally, intent and/or gross negligence will be important in some aspects of the litigation. And, to what extent does LL have products liability coverage? How they control damage over the next few weeks will likely create a lot of volatility. Which, of course, is great for options traders. I had a couple of put ratio backspreads on LL-just because I thought the stock was at absurd levels. I forgot I even had that established, until the 60 Minutes program, etc came out. I suppose that one could consider adding call ratio backspreads to the above idea, and/or to the positions stated in the article. Essentially, with the call ratio backspread, you sell one or more itm call options and use the premium to buy a greater number of otm call options. If nothing happens, all options expire-but, if you do this correctly, you might capture a small credit. If LL magically settles some or all of their claims-the excess otm call options will create a profit.
    Note: While ratio backspreads contain minimal risk, it is often challenging to select the right spreads. And, one can get 'stuck' where, for example, the stock moves just enough to increase the cost associated with the short call, but not enough to jumpstart the otm long calls. That can be hedged by owning the short puts, which is why I reference the possibility.
    Or, you can forget all this and go for a walk on the beach.
    Apr 29, 2015. 11:51 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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