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convoluted

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  • Long The S&P 500 But Feeling A Little Uneasy? PUTX May Be Your Answer [View article]
    Consider selling put spreads, with leverage, vs cash -secured with no downside protection. Which is optimal?
    of course, in some cases one might not care if they're assigned. An example ( for me) is selling 500 Jan 2016 TZA puts (10 strike). I don't need a long lower strike put here.
    I agree with several comments that an individual can do a much better job- selling puts is just one very basic tool- the veteran combines selling puts with numerous other strategies.
    Jul 8, 2015. 10:23 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Deceleration Returned To Home Prices? [View article]
    Yes-the spring and summer are the traditional buying times, and we're at least 3/4 of the way. I've spoken with some agents that haven't even had offers on properties over $500k-listed for a year or longer.
    I don't doubt that there is some pent up demand, but why is it still represented by very shallow and tepid real results? Hedge funds made an unprecedented foray into the residential market. They are now out. I read numerous comments that housing would 'break-out' this summer. Well?
    Of course, the publicly held builders don't represent the total market by any stretch, but they are the ones with the financial advantage. If I could drive around and pick out builders to short, I'd have a field day.
    Jul 7, 2015. 02:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Deceleration Returned To Home Prices? [View article]
    Hi Anthony- ITB is more of a pure play re retail builders- no ancillaries like HD- but I just read that there is a new ETF designed to short home builders- don't recall symbol but think it was in an article by Tom Lydon-
    The market desperately wants home builders to go up- that's why I use 27.50 as an initial review, and when I pull the trigger I always assume a run up to 29 or so- but the consistency of failing before that point has been incredible-
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:32 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wynn Resorts: Set To Double By 2018 [View article]
    A big bounce but not too late.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wynn Resorts: Set To Double By 2018 [View article]
    Looks like selling LEAP puts was a reasonable risk.
    Here's something else to think about: cities like Atlanta very interested in casinos. Florida itching to get in on the action.
    Jul 7, 2015. 01:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed's Window For Hiking Rates Continues To Close [View article]
    I thought 60/40 odds on one baby hike at or before year end. I'm about ready to flip those odds the other way- which also implies a substantial cooling of the economy.
    In talking with several realtors, it now seems that pricing above $250k has become challenging. If wages continue depressed, how in the hell can higher mortgage rates do anything but push more and more people into renting- or buying tiny houses?
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:16 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Shock expressed as Greece has no new plan [View news story]
    After all these years, I'm "shocked" that the market is shocked. I've repeatedly suggested that put ratio backspreads were low cost strategies to take advantage of the obvious human fragility. Puts have been dirt cheap.
    But, alas, I am greatly comforted to see that humans remain tethered to that ancient reptilian brain.
    Jul 7, 2015. 12:04 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Oil Falls Off The Chart, Crushes Hopes [View article]
    Well, I was underwater on SCO until recently, but I cashed out yesterday and bought more USO. And I'll buy more as it drops (ever play an automatic 2 down press?)- at the same time, I'll sell triple calls for every 100 shares- yes oil is manipulated, but all things are manipulated- whether by man, nature or both.
    It is not within the realm of possibility to play a simplistic one- dimensional game. What was it about Nash's theory that earned him a Nobel?
    Jul 7, 2015. 11:50 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • ISM Non-Manufacturing Index at 56.0 [View news story]
    Yes-and people loading up on zirpy bonds.
    'Once upon a time, in a land far, far away,
    An economic experiment, called ZIRP
    Haunted the good people day after day,
    Until the fat lady did sing and burp.'
    Jul 6, 2015. 12:12 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • A New Deal For Greece [View article]
    I thought humanity figured out centuries ago that debtor's prisons are counter-productive. No? Feed them brats!
    So, Zorba should have been a corporate executive-history would be different.
    What say you Plato?
    Jul 6, 2015. 11:56 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Making A Bad Bet Right Now With Zero Rates? [View article]
    Jimmy got a discount on "Billy Beer" so he wasn't really attuned to inflation. Besides, he had to contend with 'lust in his heart' and the Iranian hostages. But, despite the cosmic malaise that seemed to represent his four years upon the stage, college grads could still expect to find decent employment opportunities. There was still an innate confidence and even vibrancy across the political spectrum-and the people. I mean, a society can't feel too gloomy if it invents 'Disco Duck' and '...breaker, breaker, we got a convoy.' Alvin proved to be the prophetic voice, and "Future Shock" has shaken traditional perspectives and opportunities. The global economy has demanded central planning from banks-not statesmen. We see that today-in spades. Big banks that owe their existence to the people now demand punitive reparations from... the people. We've allowed our politicians to pick winners and losers-anathema to the very core beliefs so eloquently expressed in "Wealth of nations" and "The Declaration of Independence." So, we now have a mutated gene within the double helix of free enterprise and basic fairness.
    Perhaps we should commission the Fed and ECB to rewrite Jefferson's masterpiece: "When in the course of a financial crisis (created by large banks), we should endeavor to provide funding for Goldman Sachs and General Motors..Notwithstanding the pain and suffering of small business..."
    It doesn't quite resonate, does it? Well, Jefferson also noted that 'the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.'
    Jul 6, 2015. 10:59 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Thinking About Small Business Perceptions [View article]
    You must be old enough to recall a really vibrant Main Street. In the time before WMT, HD, TGT, MCD etc family- owned small business thrived. Bill's Meat Market, Jones Hardware, Goodson's Drugs- now just a memory.
    This has played out millions of times throughout thousands of small towns. The damage has been done- the repercussions are next.
    Jul 5, 2015. 10:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Deceleration Returned To Home Prices? [View article]
    I have consistently advocated shorting ITB (not XHB) at 27.50 and doubling down at increments above that point. All one has to do is scan my comments on the subject.
    What confuses people ( I guess) is that there are geographical pockets of high performance. But, remember that one can drown in a stream with an average depth of 6 inches. Further, there are tectonic changes, which are easy to gloss over, but refuse to go away. One of the obvious is that an economy can't sound the clarion call of recovery where median income has declined from post-war levels. Despite the lollipop and rainbow purveyors of the evening news, one can move all the deck chairs from the boiler room up to the top deck, but the gaping hole is still gushing water.
    Jul 3, 2015. 01:33 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why I Think World Acceptance Will Go Bankrupt [View article]
    The mere fact that loan sharking lite has proliferated is an indictment against the economy as it is. If an average citizen can't go to an average bank with the reasonable expectation of being treated in a professional manner, what conclusions can we derive as to the current state of the economy?
    When I was 16 years old, I set up a checking and savings account in one of those big marble, high-ceiling, museum looking banks-I even got a car loan, and repaid the loan ($16/week).
    When traditional education and values are discounted as 'so yesterday' we can expect extended battles between the cobra and the mongoose.
    Jul 3, 2015. 12:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Guts of jobs report weaker than the headlnes [View news story]
    Our government is so astute with its central planning that I'm confident that by July 4th, 2018 the unemployment rate will be the same percentage as the 30 year bond.
    The economy, of course, will continue to 'recover', hell will freeze over and political correctness will be an amendment to the US Constitution. Brave New World indeed.
    Jul 2, 2015. 03:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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