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convoluted

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  • The Sell-Off In Gold Has Become Plain Silly [View article]
    Shorting gold is the easiest trade I think I've ever seen. It's too easy. I sold a load of DUST 90 puts just this week-with expiration today-and, well, the results are obvious.
    Normally, one would expect at least a modest snapback, but folks act like they're running from the plague. Amusing-and profitable. I've just closed May, and booked June. Are people really this crazy?
    May 17, 2013. 11:22 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Precious metals continue to tumble, with gold at $1,374 nearing the panicky lows (about $1,350) seen during April's liquidation. Any excuse will do in a bear market, and filings released yesterday containing data anywhere from 6 weeks to 5 months old showed continuing sales of gold ETPs by names such as Soros and BlackRock. GLD -1.3%, SLV -1.3% premarket. [View news story]
    If gold is actually, unequivocally dropping to " x" then all one has to do is commit everything they have to the trade. Well? That's the acid test of a ' call '
    May 16, 2013. 08:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Barrick Gold And Harmony Gold Can Inflate Your Portfolio [View article]
    If more people would short gold, something magical would happen-it would go up. I sold DUST puts a couple of days ago (Fri expiration), when premium for just three days was enormous. My attitude was simple-go ahead market and sell gold, but you'll pay me a quick 25k or so. After all these years I'm still amazed at how easy this game can be.
    But as the gains rocketed up today, I sold some NUGT puts (June) with fat premium. So, I'm a pale shade of yellow goldbug-playing both sides against the middle. So, if you're long, you need to be ready to double down (and sell calls). DON'T PANIC AND PLAY INTO THE HANDS OF THE DARK EMPIRE.
    Gold is not a company that will file chapter 11. It doesn't matter where it 'bottoms', for such a concept is meaningless anyway. If you're short gold, realize that anything can happen-protect your profits earned on the short side. C'mon man, this is better than napalm in the morning.
    May 15, 2013. 10:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Getting Drunk On The Punch [View article]
    Can one pull their polo ponies with a Tesla? Bass boat? And why the hell can't we get away from traveling via wheels? The real future has to get people around with less asphalt and pot holes. We need flying machines-not new ways to utilize four wheels and concrete.
    Bear call spreads=affirmative.
    May 15, 2013. 10:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Massive Elephant In The Economic Room [View article]
    "Lookin' back on
    How it was in years gone by
    And the good times that I had
    Makes today seem rather sad
    So much has changed"
    The Carpenters- "Yesterday Once More"
    May 15, 2013. 12:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is The Fed Bluffing? [View article]
    WW ll created an unexpected full employment economy-even putting stay-at-home moms to work in factories. The aftermath of WW ll left the US in a 'safe harbor' economic zone for a generation. Bretton Woods conferred additional advantages unprecedented since the days of Rome.
    Just wanted to mention a few minor issues perhaps worthy of a modest amount of consideration.
    May 15, 2013. 11:45 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Reasons I'm Buying Gold Today [View article]
    Ian, I would prefer if you would wait and buy gold next Friday. I plan to take a load of short covering profits next week. Thanks in advance.
    (I'll join you in the moderate bull camp next week).
    May 15, 2013. 11:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bell Curves, Black Swans And Sell Discipline [View article]
    Part of tail risk is that people repress negative events, and assign very low odds to disastrous consequences. I can point out to anyone reading this comment that you have yet to confront your worst day-it is waiting for you in the future-with 100% probability. But that knowledge is pushed aside. No doubt many folks think they are immortal.
    The other blinding trait of our species is to assign greater importance to what is happening now, as opposed to last week. Far and away, the majority of people will create biases that shade and obscure rational thinking.
    I first started managing money in my early 30's-a fund of $250 Million. Small today, but a big deal to me in the early 80's. It has taken me many years to to finally understand that man's actions are not merely random and predicated upon a host of biases, but often foolish and highly irrational. And, I know that I'm still not immune from many of these biases-but I generally catch myself before I do any damage.
    One of the things about retirement is that one can just hang around, and like Sinatra so eloquently states-find the whole thing so damn amusing. That I can concoct an array of option strategies that make money 'come rain or come shine' is itself eveidence of gaming man's biases. For, without all the prejudices and opinionated 'perspectives' there would be no game.
    May 15, 2013. 09:36 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The Small, But Important, Flaw In The Tepper Analysis [View article]
    One of the obvious implications to be derived from the comments is that there is a feed-back loop which has exponential consequences beyond a mere accounting analysis of debits and credits. The masters of the reserve currency have created and will continue to create self-fulfilling prophecies. The cast of the shadow greatly exceeds the physical object.
    May 15, 2013. 09:02 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold, Currency Dilution - And Should The Market Go Higher? [View article]
    Yes, there are a lot of concerns, and an increasing awareness that we have a bifurcated recovery. This just means that rich traders get richer, and that people who actually go to a physical location and 'do things for wages' get poorer.
    The reality is that things are much better than the years 1348-1351. Indeed, we have a new system of feudalism emerging, by which the serfs are free to drive back and forth to the castle and it's environs-and are actually encouraged to grow or procure their own food. Look, the stock market can't be concerned with the malnourished, poverty-ridden, grief-stricken main streeters-especially if they don't consume any of the market's products.
    May 14, 2013. 10:39 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Debunking Birinyi's 'S&P To 1900' Thesis [View article]
    "Que Sera, Sera,
    Whatever will be, will be
    The future's not ours to see
    Que Sera, Sera,
    What will be, will be"

    And the sample size of the correct prognostication is...3? Over how many years as a ratio of human existence?
    I recall that Nostradamus had some market charts showing the S&P at 5000 by 2020-so looks like we're right on target. Also, be aware that the return of Hale-Bopp will coincide with a major correction-sometime around 4534. And by then, we might be able to better assess Birinyi's predictions with a bit more statistical validity-assuming of course, he doesn't retire ahead of time.
    May 14, 2013. 10:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    AAPL is one of the largest capitalized companies in the equity universe. The SEC and/or exchanges should have a responsibility to instill confidence in the system-they know what happened-or can readily find out.
    I had my usual bear call spreads in place, but I anticipate this sort of crap. Average investors shouldn't have to go to bed wondering if a major company will sell off-for no obvious reason.
    May 14, 2013. 09:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -2.5%) has dived over the last 30 minutes of trading on heavy volume, without any news to explain the move. The decline comes with the NASDAQ still up 0.5% on the day. [View news story]
    You are traveling through another dimension, a dimension not only of sight and sound, but of mental delusion and manipulation. Next stop, the twilight Zone.
    May 14, 2013. 09:04 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Gold Prices To Re-Test $1,350 [View article]
    Sold a double-digit batch of DUST puts today. So, I'll be collecting some big premium by Friday (if gold drops)-or doing the roll-out ragtime shuffle. (But don't cry for me cause I'm also...a secret goldbug). Go ahead, random forces of the universe, make my day.
    May 14, 2013. 05:07 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Commodity Chart Of The Day: Disjointed Market - Where Are The Flows Going? [View article]
    Coal is easy-it gets pushed up and then knocked down. Or, it gets knocked down and then pushed up-on a frequency of once a day. Ol' King Coal is a volatile old soul.
    Coal and gold (and oil of course) are a trader's delight. Who needs fiddlers three?
    May 14, 2013. 05:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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