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Why Apple Stock Is Poised To Go Flat - At Best

RE: "Market Cap Has Gotten Too Large To Expect a Similar Move like the Last Two Years"

Exxon Mobil and BP had approximately $40 in annual profit. A few decades ago, $40 billion was the entire ANNUAL REVENUE for a top S&P 100 company.

The world in this time went from 2.5 billion people to over 6.5 billion people. Populations are expanding, world prosperity is expanding, and world markets are expanding.

Apple has the potential to be one of the first TRILLION dollar revenue companies.

Information, together with processing of it, accessing it, and transmitting it, is the OIL of this age. And, the world is in the very early stages of it.

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RE: "Would it make sense that a company which has 5% market share in a sector which is tied to our discretionary spending"

This is a STATIC viewpoint. Apple itself is growing many times that its markets are growing. You comment is like viewing yourself at a red stop-light and saying that you are not going anywhere because the light is red. ALL reports show that Apple is dramatically increasing market share and unit sales of its primary product lines.

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RE: "Despite the Innovation in the Products, Product Range Is Not Very Diversified"

Apple is in computers, software, communications, mobility, graphics, video, publishing, information storage, networking, etc.

All of these are modern day categories. No buggy whips are in these areas.

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RE: "What if mobile is not the next big thing? What if people prefer a much smaller mobile device with only voice capabilities to a large one with a screen and a lot of data tools?"

Mobile IS the next big thing. And, it will continue to spread around the world for MANY years.

People HAVE had a much smaller mobile device with only voice capabilities. They are called CELL PHONES. People now realize that they need MORE than just voice when they are moving around. That is why MOBILE is the current big thing and will continue for many years to be the BIG THING.


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RE: "So Much of Company’s Success Seems to Be Tied to A Single Person – Steve Jobs:"

Apple has approximately 20,000 employees. Do you really think Jobs does EVERYTHING at Apple. Jobs is a visionary and a great leader, however Apple has succeeded because it continually hires the best people and motivates them to do their best.

Countries and companies have had a visionary leader at some time, and these countries and companies have continues success. After George Washington died, the U.S. continued to be successful for the next 200 YEARS.

Founder Watson of IBM died and IBM continues to be one of the consistently successful companies in the world.

Giving all credit to the conductor of a musical performance is not only unfair, it is very wrong. Jobs is the orchestrator of Apple, and will always be recognized for that. However, he cannot do the work of 20,000 employees. OTHERS do make a big contribution.

Recently, in a interview, Jobs said part of his responsibility was to fire someone who was not performing. Jobs recognizes that have the right person in the right job is essential to top performance. This is one of Jobs contributions to the success of Apple.

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RE: "It is no fault of Apple that this happens, there are only so much people around who are willing to pay a 50% premium over a similar device just because it looks cooler and is a little more fun to use"

Apple computers in price comparison to Dell have recently been shown to be CHEAPER than Dell in some cases. There are over 6 BILLION people in the world and not all of them want the cheapest crap on the market.

Dell's financial report last night showed a big revenue gain and a big drop in profit margins. Despite a common belief, computers are not really a commodity. When you spend a large part of your life on a computer or a mobile phone, you tend to want something that is easy, pleasurable, and productive to use. Apple excels at these qualities.

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RE: "As people get more financially strained, discretionary premium products are the first thing to go."

Tiffany's reported excellent financial results two days ago, and RAISED its forecast for 2008 and 2009. I have yet to read that jewelry is an absolute necessary component of life, yet Tiffany's is growing in a global downturn.

Today, mobile SMARTPHONES and NOTEBOOK computers are an ESSENTIAL part of life. Everything we do involves use of or need of these two products.

If Tiffany can grow in this economy, Apple has an even more essential contribution to make in one's personal and business life.