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  • HYG Is Yielding 5.47% And It's Time To Buy [View article]
    It's only a matter of time. And if you manage assets you should know that
    Feb 25, 2015. 07:52 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • HYG Is Yielding 5.47% And It's Time To Buy [View article]
    $HYG SEC yield looks more like 5% but that is not the issue! The High Yield market is not a market, but it is rather an $2 Trillion illiquid collect of bonds with no central electronic execution capabilities. It has 5-10 dealers with minimal risk position taking potential. Only 25% of the issues in the ETF trade more than 1MM in any month. You have to question what in the "REAL NAV" of this ETF. Are the prices "marks" or execution-able prices, the Oil Market downturn showed how vulnerable the High Yield Market is to extreme market downturns. I believe you must hair-cut the ETF at least 5% and be prepared for the worst. As far as the bogus argument that energy represents less than 20% of the ETF, remember the Sub-prime mortgage represented less than 10% of the Mortgage Market.OOPS what happened to the dealers and market liquidity when that market was challenged. Dealers did not answer the phones. I have been involved in the Junk Bond Market since the early 1980's ' lived through the 1987 crash, the RTC 1989 collapse, the the 1990 recession, the Asian Contagion, Long Term Capital, Y2K Telcom collapse, 9/11, and the 2008 50% HY market erosion. I don't know when then HY Market will collapse but it will and I can assure you it will happen and 5% is not an appropriate adjusted risk return for me. I'll take a pass. I am short $HYG and $JNK as a hedge versus my equity positions.
    Feb 24, 2015. 11:15 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • You Are Using HYG And JNK All Wrong, Here Is What To Do About It [View article]
    Great points, the sub-prime mtg mkt. represented ONLY 5% of the entire mtg mkt. At best the liquidity of the HY mkt. is suspect and another player CBIC folded its tent. I contented the entire HY mkt. is over marked 5-15%. There are few dealers and NO true electronic mkt. Place. with the 30 yr German Tsy bond yielding 1.03% the 30 year U.S. Tsy bond will trade at 2.00% and the 10 yr TSY yield 1.5%. these yield may force yield starved individuals to maintain or increase their positions in $HYG and $JNK. But buyer beware, even Blackrock has talked about the fragility of the HY and CORP bond mkts. Long $MYK, $NRK (closed end muni fund) Long 30 yr U.S. TSY; Short $JNK, $HYG. PUT MY MONEY MOUTH IS! Those how can't teach! or analyze.
    Jan 30, 2015. 02:34 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Hits 52-Week Low On Debt-For-Equity Swap [View article]
    How much would it cost for MCP to Build a magnet factory in U.S.A. According people i have spoken, to not much $10MM ... But remember most sales of the products manufacturing are to Asian clients .... If MCP was not so cash strapped you would probably see a magnet facility built here..

    Remember Cerium and Lanthanum are elements and make up 70%+ of ALL Rare Earth Element deposits.

    Smells like a crammed down LBO ... OakTree, Apollo, MOLYMET, and Plansee gaining ..
    This company should have not been public company. If the banks had made loans rather used this company to issue all kinds of paper and generate $100MM plus in fees.... This would be a private company that was limping along.....
    Nov 24, 2014. 11:13 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp Is Worth $1.35 Per Share [View article]
    Shock, find a "new Pony" . MCP is a long term option at these levels.
    Aug 22, 2014. 03:06 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Junk Bond Bubble: Why Investors Should Avoid HYG, JNK, And BKLN [View article]
    Correct guys.... SELL WHEN YOU CAN.... NOT WHEN YOU HAVE TOO! Sorry. Your statement, "A well laddered and diverse portfolio of bbb to b rated corp. bonds, held to maturity will likely provide good returns even if a few companies default." may be accurate. Since the inception of "Junk Market" in the early 1980's until now, we have had 3-4 events where your thesis would prove to be faulty. First, 1987-1991, 500 point Dow Crash, The RTC and a major recession. Second, 1997-1998 The Asian Contagion and the Long Term Capital Collapse. Third 1999-2002, Y2Q, Telco and Tech Crash. Fourth, 2007-2008 need i say why, but the Par Value of "A well laddered and diverse portfolio of bbb to b rated corp. bonds" dropped to 55-60%. I don't know why an investor would take credit risk for historically low rates. when there are higher yields available (AT&T "T") 5.40%; 4.30% after tax. Remember there is NO central or electronic marketplace for corporate bonds and execution costs can be wipe out a large portion of your hypothetical market value by 3%-5% to find a bid(buyer). Good Luck and hope that the 10 U.S. Treasury does move up to historic levels 4.75-5.25% and defaults rates stay low.
    Aug 22, 2014. 03:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Junk Bond Bubble: Why Investors Should Avoid HYG, JNK, And BKLN [View article]
    "New Normal" sound the creation of an advertising campaign. The Market has never been normal and now its more irrational than ever. If you truly that the 10 year Treasury will stay between 2%-3% for 8 more years that will be a flat yield curve for 14 years(2008-2022) I have a bridge to sell you. The Yield Curve is now the creation of a no growth global economy with central banks performing an economic experiment. From 1994 - 2014 the 10 year has had 680 B.P. range High of 7.82% low of 1.63%, 4.48% average. From 1981-2014 a 1420 B.P. range of High of 15.84(1981) - low of 1.63%, 6.78 average yield. Please remember the 2 greatest jobs in the world are economists and weathermen... the can never be wrong. I have traded bonds for 40 years and believe my mantra is correct "Sell them when you not when you have to!" Because there will not be a bid when you need it.... Junk Bonds do not have a central electronic market place.
    Aug 8, 2014. 04:09 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +13% as Oaktree commits for $400M financing arrangement [View news story]
    Check old Oaktree ...OAK on the NYSE ... look at there returns in the distressed and High Yield Market .... Wake up and smell the Coffee!
    Aug 8, 2014. 01:06 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +13% as Oaktree commits for $400M financing arrangement [View news story]
    Proved my contention that the "OLD" investment banks used MCP a fee source and created a weak capital over burdened capital structure. This structure is more like the old time LBO structure... equity and sr sub debt were always subordinated to Secured Bank Term Loans.

    Ken Moelis went to the old play-book... With Oaktree(some of the smartest guys in the room) Equity now has a shot to be a to be 5-10 bagger in 5 years.
    Aug 8, 2014. 01:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +13% as Oaktree commits for $400M financing arrangement [View news story]
    So Right!......
    Aug 8, 2014. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corporate Junk Bond Bubble: Why Investors Should Avoid HYG, JNK, And BKLN [View article]
    $JNK $HYG Are NOT a bubble. Just overvalued on credit risk adjusted basis... 5% plus yield!... This is the same Yield that the 10 year TSY has averaged over the last 20 years. The Fed has achieved of moving risk from Financial Institutions to Individuals and the need for Fixed income. My question is who will bail out the individuals when a credit event causes the High Yield to correct 25% -35%. The Fed bailed out the banks. Dodd-Frank and Fed Rules have cut Banks risk taking to bare bones. The High Yield Market is over $2 Trillion, dealer inventory and position trading are a all time lows. Sell them when you not when you have to!
    Aug 8, 2014. 12:50 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +13% as Oaktree commits for $400M financing arrangement [View news story]
    Move to China?... Look for MCP the build a Magnet Factory in the U.S.a
    Aug 6, 2014. 05:21 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp +13% as Oaktree commits for $400M financing arrangement [View news story]
    Great Job Ken Moelis! Why weren't the investment banks who took all those capital market fees unable to accomplish this type of transaction. Oaktree are some of the smartest guys in the room. 10% dilution is fair value for equity holders.
    It appears that $MCP has a better balance sheet. @ 2.30 the equity is a great long term option. Long MCP equity and options
    Aug 6, 2014. 05:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Worst Fears Materializing As China Plans Challenge To Expiry Of Neo Patents [View article]
    After MCP is restructured there will be a magnet factory in U.S.A
    Jul 31, 2014. 07:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Molycorp: Worst Fears Materializing As China Plans Challenge To Expiry Of Neo Patents [View article]
    Still sad
    Jul 31, 2014. 07:22 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
118 Comments
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