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  • Wall Street Breakfast: ECB Poised To Launch Quantitative Easing [View article]
    a64h, Obama just needed to make that claim that everything was absolutely great up to his state of the union address. That sets the scene for him blaming the Republicans congress for any shortcomings in the future while taking credit for anything good that happens himself.

    Simple politics 101.
    Jan 22, 2015. 10:41 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Gold Rises Ahead Of ECB Meeting [View article]
    They have to pay for all those pay increases and benefits.
    Jan 21, 2015. 11:24 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Gold Rises Ahead Of ECB Meeting [View article]
    So if I inflate them with hot air just before they are checked and inflate them to the minimum level, is it cheating when the cold temperature lowers the pressure?

    More likely we have some idiots that don't understand basic chemistry.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:24 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Gold Rises Ahead Of ECB Meeting [View article]
    What they are getting is price discovery. The real question now becomes when does the US reach peak production and how rapidly does production decline. If the drop in production is rapid, we are headed into a recession, period.

    Interestingly diesel prices are still quite high. We now have Brent back at parity with WTI so that imbalance has been corrected. So what is left is the diesel/gasoline divide which is as wide as it has ever been in % terms. At least from the prices I see at our local pumps. Once diesel gravitates back to the price level it should, which is likely around a 15% premium to gasoline all of the imbalances produced by the clean diesel policies of the EU and the US should have been adjusted for. Then the question is how demand grows when the world economies start to rebound and whether that pricing power returns for refiners.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:21 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Gold Rises Ahead Of ECB Meeting [View article]
    The only way to accomplish that is through a flat tax.
    Jan 21, 2015. 08:18 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    I hear they are cheap refurbished (wink wink).
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    The only reason it came in so strong is because inflation has dropped so much.
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:40 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    Ducati, Pelosi's genius statment was not that but rather "Embrace the suck!".
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:38 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    JC, now that the US government is out of that business prices have been coming down for launches. First it was Russia being cheaper, now it is the private sector players. Costs are coming down and if you can mass produce satellites you can also significantly reduce those costs.

    Remember, the technology used in our space programs and satellite programs is likely ancient, not state of the art. Private sector players can be much more aggressive with technology.
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:54 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    Correct, all money in IRA's is taxed as income, there are no capital gains or dividend taxes, just all income. Further, when you die it becomes a windfall for the government as the distribution is made in its entirety likely forcing you into a higher tax bracket, or making you "rich" as the Democrats like to say.
    Jan 20, 2015. 09:52 AM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Posts Slowest Growth In Decades [View article]
    Should be an interesting week. A few things to consider:

    - Bank earnings are weak and will be taken down for 2015 given the interest rate environment
    - Oil majors have yet to really see the impact of price declines on their business. So it will be important to see how much their earnings get taken down.
    - US oil production continues to ramp, the question is when does it peak.
    - The strong dollar hurts exports which offsets to some extent the repatriation of petro dollars that will happen in early 2015.

    To me this looks like a very challenging 2nd half of 2015 as slowly but surely the oil train wreck happens. Right now we see a boost to economic activity due to the repatriation effect and of course a jolt to consumer spending. That likely will ramp up GDP into Q2 of 2015. However, once that is in GDP we will face the invariable slide in GDP which opens up the possibility of a recession starting later in the year. This all depends on how fast US shale production craters due to the rapid depletion of the wells. Remember, when that happens we will replace US oil with imported oil, that will be a double whammy as the price of oil likely then will also increase. So that repatriation effect of the petro-dollar is likely to reverse later in 2015 putting a significant drag on GDP.
    Jan 20, 2015. 08:18 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Oil Majors Cut More Jobs As Crude Slides [View article]
    CSX reported coal shipments down. Oil has not seen the hit and won't see the hit until production starts to taper (or more like crash thanx to frackings faster depletion rates). The oil bust is a slow motion train wreck that will happen and it will impact producers like CSX who won't be able to continue to charge the premium to transport oil that they have been.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:34 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Oil Majors Cut More Jobs As Crude Slides [View article]
    BO, we have started an economic war with Russia because of Ukraine. You better pay attention because those ripples in the world economy aren't just Russian suffering.
    Jan 15, 2015. 08:33 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: Oil Majors Cut More Jobs As Crude Slides [View article]
    So is this considered a Swiss miss or a Swiss score?

    Europe is being expose and the Euro will continue to crater. What will be interesting is how this affects Russia that had basically been forced to look for friendlier harbors to hide its Oligarch money. Did the Swiss just fix the big money losses for all of those Russian Oligarchs in one fell swoop?

    This makes it clear who is losing in this ill advised economic war with Russia over a country that is so FUBAR it is not even funny anymore as thousands of people have died and 100,000's are needlessly suffering because the west won't force the leadership in Kiev to face the reality of the disaster they are responsible for, not Putin.
    Jan 15, 2015. 07:19 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: ECJ Adviser Backs ECB Bond Plan [View article]
    9.19M bpd production now in the US and it keeps going up. Inventories of oil and gas are well above historical norms and distillates are moving to the mid range.

    Interesting was a sizable decline in gasoline consumption. This is likely driven by the fact that many people fill up $20 or some set amount when they fill-up their vehicles. Now with cheaper gas they get a lot more gas and thus don't have to fill up as often. So a sudden spike in usage seems to have fizzled.

    Diesel is at a huge premium to gasoline on a % basis, which still shows where the shortages or tightness in the market is. That means refiners will likely continue to refine a but more to get those diesel sales to offset the losses on the gasoline sales. However the overall picture here still shows a huge glut of product and that is for the economy that is growing at 6+% nominal? Right.
    Jan 14, 2015. 03:19 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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