gggl

gggl
Send Message
View as an RSS Feed
  • The Risk Of Ford At $13 - The Fed, China And The Upcoming Recession  [View article]
    If you look at the nice chart that has the latest auto cycles you can see that in the last two cycles, both of which lasted a long long time, the SAAR traded for many years at the new higher level. The current chart shows only one of two things compared to those two, either 1) we are not at the plateau level yet and have further to go up, or 2) we are just start the multi year plateau. In other case it bodes well for multi years of strong earnings for the autos.

    In the end it will come down to the supply of stock and how it is absorbed by the markets. From a valuation perspective Ford is highly undervalued, that unfortunately will not change as market sentiment tends to be negative near the end of an expansion (though we may also not be at the end of that expansion either). So unless Ford becomes more proactive in supporting its stock price, and that likely requires aggressive buybacks, it doesn't seem like a very solid investment at this stage, though a nice dividend.
    Jan 7, 2016. 12:19 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: China Intervenes To Shore Up Stocks  [View article]
    Hopefully we open down and give a nice quick retest of yesterdays lows. That would set us up nicely for a return to positive market action. It is a big battle going on between bulls and bears and likely it will be earnings slapping the market upside the head before things get straightened out again. The Atlanta fed is quite pessimistic but I am sure their models do not contain the necessary data to accurately assess the economy anymore because of the lack of tracking online sales.
    Jan 5, 2016. 08:26 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's A Trap! - Bezek's Daily Briefing  [View article]
    What is clear is that we are in a business revolution as the smartphone does its damage and realigns the heavens of commerce. In the end we measure the size of the economy by revenue and the smartphone is dramatically altering the revenue landscape. Now the only question is will it lead to more spending or less? Clearly the smartphone lets people get a better deal, so initially it will reduce the $ spent, not increase.
    Jan 5, 2016. 07:55 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    Let us also not forget who gave us this convoluted tax code that so benefits the rich and the connected. I doubt it is libertarian right wingers.
    Jan 4, 2016. 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    127653, I'll just settle for the explanation of how the company paying $7.25 an hour and barely getting by is able to miraculously increase those same wages to $15. It just doesn't happen, so the only logical effect is fewer jobs or higher prices, both of which negate the positive impact on the few that can then get $15.
    Jan 4, 2016. 12:34 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    Bob, the best thing you can do for wages is to create mechanisms to allow for mobility in the workplace. Instead we are going to all be forced into a $15 job we really don't want but is all we can get. What is really better then?

    We need to address the issue of benefits to make them easier to transport between jobs and then we need to address the issue of mobility, i.e. moving from one place to another to get better employment. If we can accomplish that, competition will fix your serfdom issue. If we don't, well we will just become serfs at $15 doing something we really don't want to be doing.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:35 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    FH, it would be prudent for people to realize where the actual taxes we are paying are coming from and how quickly that tax base is being castrated. That is one reason I am in favor of eliminating corporate taxes and income taxes for most and switching to a VAT. The VAT taxes robots as well as the foreign company equally and those are two big factors why we have a dwindling tax base.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:30 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    If attacking 5+ new countries since the Iraq war didn't get him to cough up the prize, I am sure a few more engagements won't matter either.
    Jan 4, 2016. 11:28 AM | 13 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    We are in a clear downward trend that should have been broken by a post Christmas rally that never materialized. So I think right now the bears have it and they are chomping at the lower end of the range right now. Unless we can muster a nice rally into the close caution is clearly in order. Remember, a strong labor report on Friday will spook the market because it will raise the question of how soon the fed will raise rates again instead of easing everyones fears of a weakening US economy.
    Jan 4, 2016. 10:06 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    Strike, in case you missed it with all of the Cosby and Kardashian news over the holidays, the middle east has several hot wars going at this time. There is one in Syria, there is one in Iraq, there is one in Yemen and there is one in Israel as well.
    Jan 4, 2016. 10:03 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    We moved quickly from the top of the declining trading range back to the bottom. It will be an interesting start to the year for sure. Given a 2% handicap the first week is not likely to be a positive one so the as goes January so goes the year crowd will be spreading their doom and gloom I think. It likely will take much better than downardly revised earnings come Q4 earnings season to right the ship. The big oils will have taken some serious writedowns in Q4 2014 and Q1 2015 so that drop in earnings is going to be behind us soon.
    Jan 4, 2016. 10:01 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    blue, you forget that gasoline prices started coming down backin August of 2014, not just last year. So your $2 per gallon is total nonsense. Indeed, the article above likely used the average price from 2014 vs. the average price from 2015 and the average driven by a driver. More importantly, their projections are that we will have no gasoline savings windfall in 2016.
    Jan 4, 2016. 09:06 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    Making $15 and living at home with mom and pop covering all of the living expenses is likely the best income these kids will ever make in their lifetime.

    I remember a friend of mine in college got a 3/4 assistantship to run a lab class. There were 12 labs but over half were not working and had to be canceled. He only scheduled the lab assistants so did about 1 hour of work a week during the semester. Then he had to make up the final and grade it with the TA's. So overall maybe 30 hours of work, if that. For that he was compensated $1,500 a month plus free tuition. Don't think he ever will make that much money per hour again on a job! For those math challenged thats about $200 an hour from the pay and double that if you factor in the tuition waiver.
    Jan 4, 2016. 09:01 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    The increasing flows into ETF's is just a sure sign that the markets are becoming dumber not smarter. Further, big money players likely are switching more and more to playing liquid large ETF's rather than spending the massive amount of time on single stocks. That means technicals are also becoming more important. Beware stocks that do not have active buyback programs because those that don't are at the mercy of the ETF's destroying their technicals.
    Jan 4, 2016. 08:27 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Wall Street Breakfast: 2016 Gets Welcomed With Equity Crash  [View article]
    zorrow, it would be nice if Democrats would concentrate on people who really need help for a change.
    Jan 4, 2016. 08:25 AM | 11 Likes Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
8,035 Comments
24,535 Likes