LeeCarlson

25 Comments

    • Housing Bubble and Real Estate Market Tracker [view article]
      Ever notice how just 1-2 years ago, no one wanted to even say the words "Housing Bubble", for fear that
      it might cause sales to stop or at least slow down.
      Now all you see in columns like this are those same words,....The ""Bubble&quo... was real folks !
      As a realtor for the past 26 years, I could see it coming but it seems that Investors, Lenders, etc. didn't want to listen to reason. The Investor "Herd" mentality was already firmly set in place >>&g...
      Now they have real "Honest to gosh" reason to BELIEVE there is a housing bubble but it's too late now guys ! The damage is done ! The only question is how long the bust will last.
      I still have that Bridge in Manhattan to sell,...!!!........How much am I bid ???
      LC       Jul 12 10:34 PM
    • The Diving Dollar Enters Unchartered Territory [view article]
      For years and years, politians have wanted a strong dollar ,..for what,..I'll never figure out !
      I used to try to sell high priced products overseas but we were simply priced out the market.
      It's really insane when people overseas ask the price of an American Ford only to find that it costs
      more than a top of the line Mercedes ! But, that's the Fed. for you.
      Now,..like it or not, we have a weak dollar,..so weak that the OPEC members are starting to price oil in EUROS instead of dollars. And people wonder why oil is expensive !!! This Country has so mismanaged the economy , they couldn't have done a worse job if it was intentional,..which maybe it is !
      If the dollar gets weak enough, the JOBS will come back guys, but you will be earning only aboy $3.00 per houur ! !!! It will also increase the price of housing as investors will be buying them cheap ! Grabbing up all the real estate they can find.
      But that's what happens when you import virtually everything and export nothing ! The amount of Greenbacks being held by China and the Mid-east alone is enough to buy every share of stock in the USA and still have a lot left over ! And, to fight a war with more dollars being wasted, is just adding to the insanity of this Gov. but the Fed. doesn't seem to care, they just run the printing presses and make all the greenbacks they think they want or need. We are in uncharted waters because the Fed . and the Elected Pols. don't have a clue about how to run an economy ! "Just put it on the charge card !"
      When will they ever learn ???
      As individuals, we have to balance our budgets , live within our means, but the Fed. Gov. doesn't have that problem...if they need more money for personal "wants", they simply vote themselves a pay raise or print more dollars !!
      Isn't America wonderful ??? Just wait a few more years and then you will then know that housing prices were cheap today as compared to what they will be in 4-5 years ! That's just for starters ! Fiat is coming out with a New Fiat 500 ,...a really,..REALLY,. tiny car, but that's all we will all be driving folks , or maybe a Wizzer bike !!!
      Yeah,..we have some really brilliant economists folks ! LC       Jul 11 06:25 PM
    • No Housing Bottom in Sight - Barron's [view article]
      I think that analyzing interest rates along with home prices and sales is getting on really dangerous ground ! Too many "if's" and "but's" in that kind of analysis and besides home buyers and typical investors don't have a clue what you are talking about. I found that it's better to keep it simple !!
      But, what do I know,..I'm just a R.E. Broker w/ only 26 years experience !!
      Regardless of all that analysis, people buy houses when they, and the banks, think the buyer can afford to buy ! That's the bottom line. ! The worst things that happened in the past few years was the lending process,...zero dn. loans ...appraisers who would approve anything ,...and too many buyers thinking the market is still headed up when the prices are already outrageously high !
      Also, I keep hearing that even though the number of listings are WAY UP,..that actual selling prices are creeping up ! The reason the selling prices are going up is that the higher priced homes are the only ones on the market that show really well, have new A/C and appliances, fresh paint, new roofs, in general great condition. I could should you hundreds of current listings that have been on the market from 6 months to well over a year and in spite of numerous price cuts, and will never sell at the current asking prices because they don't show well enough ! Too many people overpaid and now they are trying to sell an empty home that is in poor condition, but the sellers think that , in time, it will sell !
      Well,..I got news,..the Average home on the market has had 1-3 price cuts, and is still for sale !
      I agree that the market will not really recover for 2-3 or 4 years ! Builders, in their ever present "Bull Market " thinking, will keep on getting burned but builders have , in past years, getting so much profit from building, that it's going to take a while for them to come back to earth ! In years past,..builders have been giving Realtors 2 pct. for bringing a buyer, but today,...they offer Agents 8-10 pct. commissions and lots of up- grades to customers, to try to move inventory ! Also, still trying to use "creative financing " ! Everyone in the industry has to get to a new mind set for the market to recover
      and it ain't going to happen overnight ! LC       Jul 09 03:46 PM
    • Why I Don't Buy The 4.5% Unemployment Rate [view article]
      A lot of good comments above. One other thing is that people just don't have only one job anymore because they can't survive on that, If they have kids going to school and a car payment plus rent, or mtg. then, 2 jobs are a necessity in todays economy ! I may be an old geezer but in 1969 I bought a new car, a new home and a new boat and ,yes my wife worked but we were, at that time on the bottom rungs of
      the pay scale. And had no kids. In todays market, , even with 2 people working, or one person w/ 2 jobs, it's very tough to make a living and have anything left over. Why do you think Wal Mart is staffed up with people in their 70's ? People that age should be retired, and relaxing, but can't afford to stop working.
      It's a far different economy today than 30-40 years ago. The Gov. especially,..doesn't like to tell how many people have 2 jobs or how many people over 70 are still working. It ain't good for the elected officials resumes !
      To top it off, with the way the gov. is allowing imports and the USA not being able to sell in the overseas markets or to be able to compeat with the Chinese labor mkt. the dollar is fast becomming weaker and weaker to the point that the Canadian dollar is almost on a par with the American Dollar, and the Euro which started out on a par with the US Dollar is now way above the US Dollar and the Oil suppliers are
      getting smart and starting to price oil according to the Euro....That answers why gas. prices are so high !
      Have the Legislators in Wash. D.C. screwed up the economy ?? Yeah,...big time !! And for a long time !!
      LC       Jul 08 11:15 PM
    • Office Properties Sizzle as Home Sales Slacken [view article]
      Same old news ,..just a different sector ! First it was the stock market boom, that finally fizzled out !
      Then Real Estate, ( housing ) tht went thru the roof but fizzled out,...Now you want me to believe that
      all these Office sales are the new boom ???
      Give us a break,..I said it before and I'll say it again, Investors have a "herd" mentality. All
      those commercial properties will be back on the market in a year at lower prices and sitting empty !!
      Most investors are too lazy to do any homework,..they just follow the leader ! How many more of these cycles do we have to go thru before those Investors have spent it all ? LC       Jul 05 03:56 PM
    • S&P/Case-Shiller Shows Housing Continues To Worsen [view article]
      In my view, the real estate market ,... after the stock market crash,....became the new hot place to put your money. And most investors have a really dumb mind set,...they don't check out the investments they are making.
      Being a Realtor for 26 years, I personally would not buy a house or condo at this time because it has a MINUS return on investment !!
      I have had the recent experience of selling a condo at what I thought was a high price considering it's condition, only to find out the day after the closing, it was back in the MLS, by another broker at a MUCH HIGHER price. Fortunately, after being on the market for several months, the seller reduced the price considerably and sold it to another investor, (AT A LOSS !) and the new investor, spent a ton of money rehabbing the place, only to find that it was not salable at the new higher price. ! Brilliant thinking by these investors !!!
      Way too many investors have a "herd" mentality !... "If 'Mr. Jones' did it and made money, then I'll do the same thing !",... No real market analysis, no looking at what else is on the market, no looking at recent sales, etc. so in fact it bacame the blind leading the blind.
      Unfortunately, all this buying and reselling pulled up the market prices so fast that NON-Investors, had to pay prices for homes that were really overpriced in the first place. !!!
      Sad to say it but Realtors participated in this insanity because it was another commission ! If they gave good advice to an investor, and the investor didn't like it, there are hundreds more Realtors out there who would let the investor go thru with a very high purchase price. So, who is to blame ,...It's just really investors who didn't get educated about the market !!! When you are playing with big bucks, you must become aware of the risks !!
      LC, Clearwater       Jul 02 07:07 PM
    • New Gallop Poll: Americans Feel the Economy is Getting Worse [view article]
      Too bad that most people just look at polls and charts and not facts !
      Fact,..we have way too many dollars going out ,..overseas,..and all the jobs are going overseas, and the dollar is dropping like a rock, ...anyone ever look at the exchange rates between the US dollar and the Canadian dollar lately Or the Euro and the dollar,...they used to be equal, but now the Euro costs $1.30 ,..approx. ...meaning that other countries are accumulating dollars that have less and less value, but no one seems to care,..One day,.. after the Fed finds that they can't run the printing presses fast enough, people will wake up only to find that the rest of the world is going to own every company in the US and really don't have any use for us except for Disneyworld winter homes, and the National parks !
      ....We really need to enter a true free trade policy that mandates "FAIR" trade, meaning if we buy a dollars worth of foreign goods, then the Foreign countries must buy a dollars worth of our goods and services.
      Continuing our present ways is a sure way to a complete melt down of our economy ! L.C.       Jun 23 12:47 PM
    • The Ethanol Industry: An Insider's Take [view article]
      Hi Gale, You may be right ,..that there probably is a "plateau price" that people are willing to pay for gas / oil. ...but we haven't found it yet . I find it mind boggeling when I see people putting $50.00 to $75.00 into their fuel tanks. I switched to a small car years ago and let the drivers of those huge pick-ups do their thing,...I guess they think they are impressing someone ,....can't imagine who ?
      Right now , it seems that a lot of people still don't really care that gasoline or alternatiives are so expensive. The automotive industry seems to have developed into two sectors, ...one market for those "gas guzzeling" pickups, and SUV's and another for commuters who just want to get to work and back cheap. Fortunately, at some point,..as dictated by economics,..people will find alternatives for those high priced fuels and big cars, pickups or SUV's !. At this point in time,.., people simply are not hurting enough to change ! Lee       Jun 23 12:22 PM
    • Eleven Good Points On Residential Real Estate [view article]
      Hi SJDiii,..I totally agree with your assessment of the market. I too sell in Fl, primarily in the Clearwater area, and it is a lot worse in Fl than in most states. We were invaded by "investors" who made really bad decisions and are now trying to just get their money back, and in addition, everyone and his brother suddenly became a mortgage broker, and lenders went along, until the investors found thet they couldn't find a tenant and couldn't sell, The newspapers are full of Auctions and Forclosure sales and the end of the downturn isn't in sight ! Even with prices fropping, there are no sales ! ...You are right about NAR, a real waste of money we have to pay those guys to give out bad advice and to continually hear them say things aren't so bad.!!! They need to learn how to just "tell the truth ! Jun 23 03:35 AM
    • Betting On Oil? Pay Close Attention To The Facts [view article]
      Only one thing for sure,...The debate will continue...!
      Oil companies have much to gain by higher prices, but there is no shortage, so they blame it on the shortage of refineries,..and lets not forget the guys who buy oil futures but never take delivery,..
      and wind power is not the answer as you have to have at least a wind speed of 12 MPH continually to make them work, and most of the US doesn't have that kind of wind,..ethanol,...? ..It's only got 70 pct. the energy of gasoline and thats why some gas has to be added to ethanol, and yes,...someday we can make the ethanol more efficiently,...but then we would have to get the Gov. off our backs because of the big tax on "FUEL" and fuel is defined as anything you put in the tank !!!
      The bottom line is that we have to use every method we can come up with to power cars, and power plants, etc. We can't anymore blame it on just a shortage of gas !! It has to be a combination of methods, even more effective insulation on homes and factories, shorter trips, and even perhaps shorter wars !
      Ever stop to think how much fuel is used by an aircraft carrier to get planes to the mid-east and then to contimually refill the planes which go thru fuel like crazy !!! So guys,...there ain't just one simple solution, it's a combination of conservation, perhaps geothermal, insulation, smaller cars, nuclear power, etc. etc. but some people will continue to blame it all on one company or perhaps even one person,..who knows but as I said, the debate goes on !!! Have fun !       Jun 17 01:54 AM
    • Betting On Oil? Pay Close Attention To The Facts [view article]
      Oil prices have become a "Game that countries and Corporations play". It is not a mattter of Supply and demand any more. It is a political football, and a Corporate profit game.
      There is no shortage of oil, and there has never been a shortage of oil,..or gasoline.
      Do you see any back-ups at the gas stations ?? Yet the prices go up and down like Yo yo's ! But always gradually higher. It won't end until there are real alternatives to oil or less demand for oil !! Like more insulated homes, like more fuel efficient cas, like we haven't built a Nuclear power plant in 30 years, like the people who have to have the biggest car or truck on the block because it shows the world that they have "many bucks". All factors in the game. Countries like France get about 80 pct. of their power from Nuclear power plants and drive small cars, but there is no incentive to build more here ??
      Doesn't really make any sense, does it ?...Well, it does to the major oil companies !
      Did everyone forget about the laws of supply and demand ? When demand goes down, Oil will be cheap again ! Until then,..it's just a game !! LC       Jun 16 02:03 PM
    • Fed Beige Book's Benign Economic Picture Contradicts Real Estate Reality [view article]
      Paul is right to some extent,..the treasury is flooding the world with bonds that are worth less each day, and trade deficits are enormous and have been for some time.
      What it means is that the weaker dollar is forcing the oil producers to start to set prices by the Euro, not the dollar because the dollar is becoming worthless. This is already happening ! When the Euro first came out, it was pegged to the dollar and now the Euro is worth about 30 pct. more than the dollar.
      The last few Presidents have listened to very bad advice. They agreed to Free Trade,..instead of Fair Trade. We cannot continue to import everything we need and pay with dollars that are worth less every day. That means imports are getting more and more expensive but our brilliant Fed. Reserve thinks this can go on forever !
      On the plus side,..when the dollar gets cheap enough, jobs will come back to this country. This is one reason that oil is more expensive ! The dollar isn't worth much anymore and so it is being sold by a different standard, EURO's !
      The Fed. thinks all they have to do is print more money to solve the problem but any first year student of Economics will tell you this cannot last long before the dollar won't buy anything from overseas and things purchased from this country are going to get less and less expensive for foreigners. !!
      This country's products will become cheap again,..to foreigners, and they will be coming here for vacations , Disneyland, and winterhomes ! What we really need is a whole new bunch of people on the Fed. Reserve who really understand economics ! LC       Jun 14 01:24 PM
    • The Ethanol Boom's Unintended Consequences [view article]
      I have to agree with Mr. Morris as I was raised on a farm and we never fed cattle any corn ! Silage in the winter, yes, but not corn !! Only the "feed lots" give cattle grains to fatten them up . In fact, having been to Australia and New zealand, they only eat grass fed beef which is far more tender and far less fattening, meaning far less cholesterol and saturated fats. In this country, it appears that the Gov. insists on having those ribbons of fat ,..meaninng cholesterol and saturated fats,..to make it into what they want to call "prime". Guess the Gov. is trying to kill us off with cholesterol,..
      Just this past week when shopping , I picked up some fresh corn on the cob, and it was the same price as last year,..6 ears for a buck !
      LC       Jun 12 03:50 PM
    • Housing Slump Continues: Are Economists Ready For Reality? [view article]
      Can't help but agree with Ernest (Above),..as for me, I just don't read what the economists say as they
      don't live in the real world ! Even the NAR economists,...With regard to Emily, above,..buying a home for yourself may be partly an emotional experience, but buying investment property, especially for immediate resale, is super high risk as many have found out ! This is where "crunching the numbers" and asking the right questions from those that have gone on before, would have helped a lot ! Having lived in FL for the past 27 years, I have seen nothing to compare with the insanity that took place in the past few years,..people buying million dollar tiny waterfront condos that cannot possibly pay for themselves tells me that the buyers of those properties had more ego and money than brains, and being "emotionally charged" means nothing more than they left their common sense at home before making that kind of decision ! Being a Realtor for the past 26 years, common sense told me to avoid selling those properties when they started !! Sure I could have made a fortune during that short time, but then I would have had to listen to years of complaining by "emotionally charged" SELLERS now, who suddenly realized that they made a very big bad mistake and simply want to get their money back !!
      This is the kind of situation that Economists should report on, but most are fearfull of their Employers ,..meaning builders, bankers, NAR, etc. Zero down loans and subprime loans were never
      mentioned by those famous Economists and a one month uptick in the market does not indicate a "Trend" !! In my experience, following the "herd" is very poor advice ! Want proof,..just look at the stock market plunge just before the start of the new R.E. BULL market ! Real Estate is a safe investment , right ? YES,..if you buy it right and do the math,..or is that asking too much ?
      Lee Carlson       Jun 12 02:25 PM
    • Housing Prosperity Just Around Corner? I Don't Think So [view article]
      Thanks G K ,...We are both on the same page and I totally agree with you. !!
      After the dot.com. bust those that had any money left started putting into Real Estate and
      overpaid tremendously. As you said, they didn't even consider the "fundamentals ".
      In FL alone,..there are 4 times as many homes on the market than ever before and half the historical number of sales. Home Prices are already taking big cuts and still not selling as there are still way to many on the market and buyers have so many homes to choose from, it's mind boggeling !
      I have had numerous people ask me for help in getting out of contracts in which they paid around a million $$$ for an 1100 sq. ft. condo. and put 10-20 pct. Dn. but changed their mind and now want to get out of the contracts. !! Fat chance !!
      Many thanks,
      Lee Carlson       Jun 08 06:23 PM
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