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Micro Magic

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  • 8 Questions Each Cimatron Holder Shall Ask [View article]
    3d insider. Care to comment on the acquisition?
    Nov 27, 2014. 01:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impossible To Accurately Calculate Missing Workers [View article]
    I think you are arguing with the wrong poster. See my reply to bg6638-2 posted a day and a half before your post. After I've been president for a couple terms, then, I'll attack what the others have done :)

    'Would be nice if we could blame one person. Usually, if I can blame one person, it's the guy in the mirror. "
    Mar 19, 2014. 09:49 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Impossible To Accurately Calculate Missing Workers [View article]
    Would be nice if we could blame one person. Usually, if I can blame one person, it's the guy in the mirror. Unemployment manipulation started under GB2. CPI index started in Carter years to hide high inflation.
    Mar 15, 2014. 01:38 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Impossible To Accurately Calculate Missing Workers [View article]
    from a different angle . . .

    us census bureau used to show all age groups growing for both sexes since end of WW2. Knowing this, there is no way to calculate anything but an increasing available labor pool in any category. Older is increasing %, but because of longevity. all other age categories still increasing yearly.

    Interestingly, it is harder and harder to find the population change over time on census bureau site. Mostly, lots of data showing current make up.

    BLS stats deliberately reduce the size of the pool to create lower published unemployment rate. Nothing different here than understating consumer inflation, understating total federal debt, understating total state and local debt, ignoring student loan bubble, etc.

    The sun is shining because we say it is. Now put on your raincoat, go outside and buy bank stocks.
    Mar 15, 2014. 10:38 AM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The $1 Million Perpetual Income Portfolio: ETF Edition [View article]
    Thanks for the article - and all the work.

    If you just put it all in a broad based holding like VTI, what would the alpha be? I'd be curious on the backtest. If you picked one stock fund, one bond fund, a real estate holding and a commodity fund? The only justification we usually see for these very diversified holdings is some constant rebalancing program. I don't see it here?
    Mar 15, 2014. 10:06 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • 8 Questions Each Cimatron Holder Shall Ask [View article]
    I appreciate your article. Please do some fundamental research beyond 3D. I worry you will get trapped winning the 3D battle and losing the $$$$ war.

    A short on such an illiquid stock will wipe you out when an elephant jumps in the tub. Years ago, investors argued the viability of Apple's operating system. shorts got killed as the Ipod took off. Ask anyone who shorted Tesla as the discussion moved from cars to quick charge batteries.

    CIMT is a <$100m design software technology company with great growth selling ~ 2x sales and ~25PE. If Oracle, Google, IBM, etc see a value here; they can grab it up with petty cash. I don't care if the design software is to 3D print, develop phone apps, design industrial parts, map the genome . . .

    I'm holding profits and buying on dips . . . and look forward to your fundamental analysis outside 3d.

    Thanks again for the article!
    Mar 9, 2014. 12:45 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Rationalizing Clearfield's 50 P/E Requires Factual Errors And Implausible Assumptions [View article]
    Keep the faith and keep publishing. Comments are tough, but well meaning. I have done well with CLFD, but am a bit nervous that the valuation is growing faster than the potential.

    I would encourage you to verify your objectivity. I saw your article on SMCI recommending a co 3 times the size with a lower PEG ratio. Why SMCI at its aggressive valuation for a co three times the size of CLFD? Yes, half the PE, but half the ROI, half the growth, etc.

    Thanks for the article.

    Curious on your thoughts.
    Mar 9, 2014. 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Buffett Gone Mad? Berkshire Hathaway Founder Steps Up A $1B For College Basketball [View article]
    odds and finding a way to cheat reminds of those who have beaten lotteries by buying up all available options or at the very least "pooling" to improve odds.

    Here is the plan. Post a program on the web requiring you to agree to donate $999million of your $billion to Gates Foundation. The program lets you fill in a bracket ONLY if no one has selected that bracket yet. Then you enter that bracket on the Quicken contest. I would expect that a couple thousand people picking the most plausible couple thousand choices would be able to get greatly improved odds.

    I'll email a link to this discussion to Biga@microsoft. He should be willing to put up the website program. He can at least threaten WB to do it.
    Feb 4, 2014. 08:45 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Has Buffett Gone Mad? Berkshire Hathaway Founder Steps Up A $1B For College Basketball [View article]
    Started by Oliver Chace in 1839.

    Buffett started acquiring in 1962.
    Feb 4, 2014. 08:25 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • I Concede Defeat In [View article]
    I can calculate the motions of heavenly bodies, but not the madness of people." - Isaac Newton
    Feb 1, 2014. 07:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • RF Industries Offers A Nice Combination Of Income, Value And Growth [View article]
    I bought some of this in October from a micro cap value screen. It has since doubled. Any more detailed explanation than the article above? I like the long term electrical connector business, but am curious what is drving the valuation growth?
    Nov 30, 2013. 09:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Trade Ideas That Can Make 500% In An Up Market [View article]
    If any of us knew how to guess the market, we wouldn't be here reading your SA articles, we'd be on our private jet to Tahiti. . . . so take the criticism with a grain of salt.

    Forecasters (like Kramer) forecast constantly so they can remind us when they were right and ignore when they were wrong. Your big mistake is documenting your recommendations and not confusing us by inundating us with them.

    Your bigger mistake was putting out that article back in January saying to buy AAPL as your #1 2013 no brainer pick. I would have held it anyway and eventually, it will turn around, but in the hair trigger nanosecond that is now considered an investment period, we have a lot of shell shocked AAPL buyers (not investors) wondering what to do and some that already bailed and are really angry. You are an easier target than their impatience. When AAPL turns back around, you will be the hero. Until then, you are the boogy man.

    Intersting that you set 25.45 as the downside on the DBA trade above. It closed at 25.46 today. Very precise. Could be worse, you could have picked gld to discuss! Timing is everything and bad timing isn't fun.

    Keep writing, no matter what anyone says here, your articles are worth every penny we pay you for them.
    Apr 15, 2013. 11:19 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • This Gold Slam Is A Massive Wealth Transfer From Our Pockets To The Banks [View article]
    I still don't see a clear direction to go from here. too many contradictory signals.

    CM's article is a bit like my bar stool rant. "They're printing money like crazy and deflation will kill us." The bartender points out that those are two opposing views. "Just give me another".
    Apr 15, 2013. 10:51 PM | 17 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why My Trading Strategy Began Changing March 15 [View article]
    I appreciate the warning. I "feel" close to a top, but can't substantiate.

    It would help your cred quite a bit if you explained a bit about how you select these value stocks to trade and what your profits have been. VIG would be the large cap benchmark and it is up 14.8% ytd. How far have you surpassed it? I'd sure like to hear about your screening, entry and exit criteria.

    Apr 8, 2013. 07:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 5 Cheap Small Caps With 2% Plus Yields [View article]
    Thanks for the article. You say IBA has a pe of 110?? Finviz says 9.23? What is it?
    Mar 31, 2013. 08:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment