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drjohn35

drjohn35
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  • Green Mountain Coffee Sell-Off Adds Up To A Bargain Buy [View article]
    GMCR has a great revenue recognition model. They book a sale whenever they deliver a shipment of coffee to their distributor and they have their distributor in their hip pocket. Need a little extra revenue to boost the quarter's earnings? No problem just load up the trucks and ship some coffee. Need to boost the stock price so we can sell some more shares? Load up the trucks.
    Nov 4, 2011. 12:57 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Green Mountain Coffee Sell-Off Adds Up To A Bargain Buy [View article]
    The problem with this type of arithmetic analysis is that it's highly dependent on the accuracy of the assumptions. Earnings growth of 37% per year over the next 5 years seems pretty optimistic. Let's say they "only" grow at a 25% rate, still pretty high growth, the stock then becomes overvalued at the current price. Of course we know that analysts are hardly ever wrong about their forward growth projections.
    Oct 28, 2011. 11:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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