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mdb666

mdb666
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  • Marin Software: Lock-Up Expiration And Google Competition Provides Shorting Opportunity [View article]
    Don - any idea what the bottom will look like? With millions of shares no longer under lock up, it could take months for things to normalize given the low volume MRIN does day to day. Under $9 seems like a bargain, but it can go as low as people are willing to sell. What are your thoughts?
    Nov 20, 2013. 06:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bill Doyle: Potash Savior [View article]
    Nothing wrong with changing your mind....especially when explained.
    I appreciated the CEO's webcast as well and liked his advice telling everyone to take a deep breath and relax. Emotion drives all stocks, and POT is no different. Maybe it drops back down sub 29, but once the "analysts" start their upgrades from Sell to Buy, they will all pile on so they don't miss out and things will get back to normal. I like POT long term, short term and mid term. They are well run, have strong government support (as someone else mentioned) and have a product that will always be in demand in our lifetimes. You would have to think 39 is right around the corner after the Russian news fades away, and that would be an incredible 25%+ gain from current levels. Great risk/reward.

    And speaking of 25%, charging 25% less so you can sell 25% more is not a good business strategy, and I would imagine the Russians will figure that out.
    Aug 9, 2013. 12:04 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The news from Europe torches a few dollar bulls, as all of the "risk" currencies melt higher to the tune of 1% or more in the space of a few minutes.  [View news story]
    It's all about trends these days...short term and long term....we were just short term oversold, so we moved back up on a quick squeeze...I would imagine the new short term "trend" would be higher...maybe S&P 1190 would be resistance?....then when things get overbought the short term trend will match the long term trend and we will head lower...this time with possibly more power as 1080 proved to be pretty good support this time around (just like 1101 was the first time). Now, having said that, all bets are off if Bernanke starts up again...then we will probably see 1250+...maybe even up to 1350 just like last time.

    Summary: we are still bound within the closing range of 1100-1235....we are seeing lower highs and lower lows which could mean that 1050 comes into play at some point since the larger trend is lower.
    Oct 4, 2011. 04:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • The real U.S. unemployment rate is 12.5%, a new high and much higher than the official 9.1%, Daniel Indiviglio writes. The current way of measuring unemployment does not include those who have left the workforce temporarily but will want or need a job. If you include these people in the calculation, the labor market picture has worsened.  [View news story]
    Hi Jackson999 - no need to get upset. Do you really think the Government is interviewing all of the people that have run out of benefits and asking them the four questions outlined in your article? No way - once they have exhausted their unemployment benefits (they can no longer click the tab asking "did you look for work"), they are considered "out of the labor force". They are no longer counted within the core unemployment figure.

    from your article:
    "People with jobs are employed, people who do not have jobs and are looking for jobs are unemployed, and people who meet neither labor market test are not in the labor force. "
    Aug 23, 2011. 01:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Doug Kass thinks a combination of "de-risking," redemptions, and liquidiations in the hedge fund and mutual fund worlds has served to worsen the market's August selloff. However, Kass thinks de-risking and redemption activities are "growing mature," which could provide markets with a breather. (previously)  [View news story]
    haha...I have to agree a bit with deebballer....however, to continue the discussion, here is what I have been thinking...but who cares what I think as well, yeah? :)

    As long as we are above 1101, the "sky is falling" talk is just hyperbole. It is supposed to feel doomy and gloomy when we retest a low...that's how you get back down there. At the same time, earnings, for the most part, have been stellar. The rise in gold could just be from retail selling their mutual funds (record levels) and asking to get into gold...they don't care about price or technical's, they just buy.
    As long as we don't have a morning where we gap down hard below 1100, things should be fine...1050 is likely worst case scenario. There are long squeezes, just like short squeezes, so the volatility will be with us until a true pattern emerges...yet if we can hold off 1100, the pattern is intact on our way back up to retest 1250....I mean, 1250 has got to get another look. At 1250, another sell off to 1220 or so, and then hopefully we make our way slowly back to 1345 and see what happens from there. This may take months to play out, but if the last few weeks are any indication, maybe it just a needs a few days...who knows. Be careful in either direction.
    Aug 22, 2011. 05:41 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The real U.S. unemployment rate is 12.5%, a new high and much higher than the official 9.1%, Daniel Indiviglio writes. The current way of measuring unemployment does not include those who have left the workforce temporarily but will want or need a job. If you include these people in the calculation, the labor market picture has worsened.  [View news story]
    As long as you are collecting unemployment, you are counted among the 9.1%...once you have exhausted all of your benefits (with all of the available extensions, some people get up to 99 weeks), only then are you considered out of the work force....at that point you actually make the unemployment number drop as you count the same as if you found a job.
    Aug 21, 2011. 11:05 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 2 Glimmers of Hope for Stocks - If These Fade, Things Could Get Ugly [View article]
    As long as we are above 1101, the "sky is falling" talk is just hyperbole. It is supposed to feel doomy and gloomy when we retest a low...that's how you get back down there. At the same time, earnings, for the most part, have been stellar. I appreciate the heads up on PFF - that is an interesting number to look at. The rise in gold could just be from retail selling their mutual funds (record levels) and asking to get into gold...they don't care about price or technical's, they just buy.
    As long as we don't gap down hard below 1100, things should be fine...1050 is likely worst case scenario. There are long squeezes, just like short squeezes, so the volatility will be with us until a true pattern emerges...yet if we can hold off 1100, the pattern is intact on our way back up to retest 1250....I mean, 1250 has got to get another look. At 1250, another sell off to 1220 or so, and then hopefully we make our way slowly back to 1345 and see what happens from there. This may take months to play out, but with the last few weeks, maybe it just a needs a few days :)
    My plan? I just opened a long position in POT. $50 feels like a steal....if I am wrong, I would probably look to get out around $48 (last Decembers resistance). Always good to have an exit strategy.
    Anyway, thanks for the article.
    Aug 21, 2011. 08:36 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "It's a technical mess all over the world," according to chart expert Louise Yamada. She says virtually all the global markets, with the exception of Japan, Thailand, Indonesia and "a few U.S. markets," have triggered long-term sell signals. Her advice: "Rallies would be best used to lighten some positions."  [View news story]
    To disregard charts entirely wouldn't make sense. To use technical analysis that goes back twenty years seems pretty ridiculous as times have changed...but for the last few years it proves very helpful. I think we all can agree that once we get close to 1250 on the S&P, there is going to be a nice pullback as 1227-1250 has turned into huge resistance....it will drop regardless of what is happening fundamentally.
    Having said all of that, I do agree that all methods have their flaws. I had to laugh when Apple dropped below 325...all technical geeks claimed Apple was in a bear market. "Apple is done!" "You can forget about buying Apple for months, if not years".....well, two days later it was above 325 and a week or so later was scraping 400.
    Aug 16, 2011. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The real U.S. unemployment rate is 12.5%, a new high and much higher than the official 9.1%, Daniel Indiviglio writes. The current way of measuring unemployment does not include those who have left the workforce temporarily but will want or need a job. If you include these people in the calculation, the labor market picture has worsened.  [View news story]
    ...and keep in mind, those "out of the work force" are only counted once they have gone through their 99 weeks of unemployment....I guess we will never find out, but does extending 26 weeks (normal length of time for benefits) to 99 weeks (total with all extensions figured in) exacerbate the problem?
    I have had a friend tell me, "they are only paying $20...I'd rather stay on unemployment"...now, this guy has no college and would have been lucky to make $20 an hour...it's just that he still had close to 60 weeks left to burn through - jump forward 60 weeks...he had to leave California and move to Texas because he couldn't afford living here. That $20 an hour job was no longer waiting for him....so sad. :/
    Aug 16, 2011. 11:42 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Billionaire investor Wilbur Ross says he's not worried about last week's volatility, nor that he may have been too early a buyer in the downturn. His rationale: "We bought some things during that period on the simple theory that it’s not the end of the world."  [View news story]
    People with lots of money have extra money to buy stocks when they are bottoming...$60K a year doesn't care because whatever is in the 401K is already invested...hands are tied. There are no savings and only credit card bills at 17.9% interest.
    Aug 16, 2011. 11:42 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Some early stock index futures prints: S&P 500 -2.5%, Nikkei -2.2%, German DAX -2.6%, FTSE 100 -2.7%, French CAC 40 -3.2%. Currencies: Dollar -1% vs. the swissie, -0.4% vs. the yen, -0.3% vs. the euro , +0.5% vs. the aussie, +0.4% vs. the loonie.  [View news story]
    It's still early...most people are buying on margins, so they are all covering. Time to use some cash to bargain hunt Monday morning.
    Aug 7, 2011. 11:26 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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