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  • The U.S. Stock Market Will Charge Higher  [View article]
    Wait for it Whiff, go long and it will be you.
    Jun 20, 2015. 07:55 AM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Stock Market Will Charge Higher  [View article]
    Well whiff,

    The Tech bubble was a burn, the housing bubble was another which wiped most ever ones free cash. These record highs are created by corporate buybacks and big bank margin trades. Is the economic conditions at an all time high?

    Did your friends and neighbors upgrade there houses, cars, vacations, new watches, boats, are people moving up the pay ladder at their job, new promotions??

    Outflows on 401k are the highest in history. I think main street sat this one out.

    Jun 20, 2015. 07:53 AM | 10 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The U.S. Stock Market Will Charge Higher  [View article]


    "We are still nowhere near a bubble in the U.S. markets as only 48% of Americans are invested in the markets. This figure needs to be at 65%+."

    Babyboomers are not coming back in...they are not going to get burned again. They are now taking low paying jobs usually collage grades take to get a leg up.

    This is unprecedented territory. Fed Induced low rates from Greenspan, Bernanke till Yellen and she is just the cleanup crew to afraid of wall-street and the political consequences.

    The Fed has a 0% win rate of their GDP and economic predictions.

    Jun 20, 2015. 06:37 AM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why A Stock Market Crash May Once Again Be Inevitable  [View article]
    Tweet This;

    The Headline will be;

    "The Most Anticipated Crash in History Catches Everyone by Surprise!"

    And the blame will go to.....

    Corporations and the C class who bought stocks instead of creating jobs!

    Those greedy bastards.

    The Fed will be the hero and the political class will use it in the presidential elections.

    Its going to suck!

    Ray Cuda
    May 14, 2015. 12:58 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja Vu All Over Again  [View article]

    I doubt the Baby Boom Generation is going to go out and spend spend spend.

    Unlike the 90 ies and early 2000 the Home ATM machine is broken and they are looking at a retirement with little saved after the mortgage blow out.

    So that leaves the next generation straddled with collage loan debt and living in there parents basement texting on a new $600.00 dollar phone (because they have to have the latest) at a rate of $200. a month in LTE bills. Oh lets not forget the 6 year financing on the new car that takes them to the two part time retail jobs. Its going to be real funny when they finally get back their IRS check which is much smaller and much later that they expected because of Obama Care.

    Going to be a blow out....

    Oh ya I'm sorry that is just America..

    What about all the new sales from Europe that Euro will go far to buy American goods, or bankrupt South America, no the Japanese will be buying assuming the dollar drops to the levels of 2011 but we would need good old Ben B to drop boatloads of cash down on the big banks so the money can be pumped into the equities casino some more.

    Who will be the buyers? How about the oil rig workers? That was the meat and potatoes of the employment expansion. They surely will be spending because there futures are so bright.

    So where do you propose this blowout spending will come from??

    How about the stock buy back of the corporations. Nice way to beat earnings. What happens when you cant support you stock any more??

    People twist there logic in knots to fit there beliefs?

    Main street is not in this and when it eventually does goes south the blame will go to big banks and corporate greed (I can here the cries of Elizabeth Warren right now)and the next thing you will know is that congress will come up with a whole new set of regulations to save us from our selves. (which will screw thing right back up).
    Apr 20, 2015. 06:32 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja Vu All Over Again  [View article]

    Unfortunately this new economy has many part time retail and service jobs. More than the 70ies. So yes maybe the shutdown of Walmart and Mc Donalds because of snow in Boston Mass caused many people not to spend. I don't blame the weather I blame this administrations policies and the selling out to the Chines when Bill and Hillary were in office.

    But now the Chines are going the way of Japan( I remember when we all thought that they were going to buy the world..)

    Now what? This is going to end badly the consumer is weak. No more using your home as an ATM.

    So in a way I sorta agree with you Southie....
    Apr 19, 2015. 11:05 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja Vu All Over Again  [View article]
    I had no trouble moving trailer loads of hand hewn barn beams from Wisconsin to Florida...lots of idle rigs to bid down the jobs...

    I am not convinced of the weather excuses. I grew up in the Chicago area in the early 70ies and the winters were just as bad if not worse...

    Not buying it...
    Apr 19, 2015. 07:28 AM | 7 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Deja Vu All Over Again  [View article]

    That make a lot of common sense!

    Apr 19, 2015. 07:24 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Economy: Boom! Boom. Boom?  [View article]
    Far be it for me to point out the obvious for all of you who use the past to explain the future;

    but in all of your charts, interest rates, jobs deflation inflation and so on; none of those things happened when the Fed balance Sheet approached 4 trillion dollars.

    5 years of ZIRP put us into unknown territory, none of you will be correct in predicting the economy over the next 48 months let alone few years based the tech bubble and housing bubble.

    Also the vast majority of the spenders of the 1990's are now savers for retirement or are retired spending with in the limits of there savings.

    Apr 12, 2015. 06:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Monitoring Bubble Risk In The U.S. Stock Market  [View article]
    James does your data points take into account the unprecedented QE 1,2 &3, Zirp.

    The PE ratios and CAPE are certainly looking at what corporations are reporting but it seems to me that there is a distortion of share buybacks and finical engineering.

    What happens when the support of buybacks ends? Mainstreat is not participating in this bubble...that last push higher in 2000 and 2008 may have been John Q public getting in at the top.

    This bull run has not felt right from the start and it wouldn't surprise me that any of the many "Black Swan" events could quickly see "smart" money all head for the exits at once. Cash may be a good place for awhile.

    Apr 8, 2015. 03:34 PM | 9 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low?  [View article]
    I agree Prveen!
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:30 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low?  [View article]
    The only guy in the bread lines will be the Bulls in this market when it crashes. The rest of main street isn't in it and will miss all the hand wringing and the cnbc explanations when the corporation stop the buybacks and the support of this market slips of the abyss.

    Good Luck!

    Unlike the slowdown of last year there is no QE, Europe is in the tank, China is bust, Australia is shutting down commodities mining, Baby Boomers are cashing in there 401K at an alarming rate and the city of Aden is about to fall to Iran which will push the price of oil up, and oh ya the Greeks are about to show the EU that an exit door does exist for the rest of the Bricks and the next generation living in the basements of there parents homes still are spending all there extra cash in the "Apple ecoshere" where it does nothing for the broader economy.

    Looks like a secular bull market to me???

    This time its different right?

    Bulls you keep buying for a while and be sure to keep the VIX down until I finish putting on my option positions. Thanks you will be feeding my family this fall.
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:19 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low?  [View article]
    Thanks Mickey..
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:16 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Are Interest Rates So Low?  [View article]
    You just keep on and all the perma bulls...
    Apr 4, 2015. 03:14 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • How The Economic Machine Works  [View article]
    Please send this to Obama!

    Taxes are too high!!
    Oct 7, 2014. 03:14 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment