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leebailey85

leebailey85
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  • Zillow Shares May Be No Place To Rest Your Head [View article]
    zillow is in its infancy. It is still a high risk, high reward stock. Cisco in 1999 had the largest market cap in the world. It had already reached the law of big numbers in valuation alone. Zillow on the other hand is sitting at merely 5 billion dollar market cap. In 20 years, Zillow could put real estate agents out of business or at least severely cut into their commissions and have a 100 billion + market cap. I know I am selling my house using their "make me move" feature to skip the real estate commission already--without even having to put my house officially on the market as a for sale by owner. Zillow may be temporarily overvalued and due for a pullback short term, but this is a long term winner.

    The best ways to invest is to think like an entrepreneur. Don't fiddle around too much with metrics. Do you think Zuckerberg or Page or Gates cared about their price/sales ratio or predicted 5 year EPS growth? No they take the bigger picture and the long run approach. They look where the industry is headed and how they can innovate to replace existing systems on the large scale. They know their business will be rewarded if they do that so they don't have to worry about current metric details. Useless noise for the most part. You'll never be rich trying to invest based on metrics. It's most important to try to predict very long term trends and companies that have a shot at making a massive disruption.
    Jul 10, 2014. 09:54 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Workday's co-founders get new job titles [View news story]
    CEO of a penny stock in 3 years. If he makes it that long
    May 15, 2014. 01:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tesla Drops: Now What? [View article]
    I'd love opportunity to buy at 170 or below. But I'll take what I can get.
    May 14, 2014. 12:29 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Your Favorite Beloved Tech Stock Was Just A Giant Macro Bet [View article]
    How much do you think this massacre is going to affect silicon valley real estate prices?
    May 7, 2014. 11:18 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Twitter Go To $34 Or $49 After Earnings? Doesn't Matter To Me [View article]
    looks like another miss. Someday, I think you'll realize that the IV is always right and you can't beat it. 3 misses in a row by my count after 3 wins in a row. Best of luck to you in continuing your "Will $X go to Y or Z after earnings, doesn't matter to me" formula
    Apr 30, 2014. 11:33 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Is Facebook Going To $53 Or $68 After Earnings? Doesn't Matter To Me [View article]
    Looks like your winning streak on these straddle suggestions has come to an end. Missing on NFLX & FB. But it's not luck right? :) This is why I don't play earnings anymore
    Apr 23, 2014. 04:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Netflix Will Move Hard After Earnings: Here's How I'd Trade It [View article]
    You always recommend these straddles. The market prices in the expected volatility of the earnings play already. You can get lucky with these, but over the long run, they are not money makers--unless you know something the market doesn't.
    Apr 16, 2014. 10:33 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple Faces A Problem And Increasing Prices Will Make It Worse [View article]
    Apple is cheap for a reason
    Apr 14, 2014. 10:14 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Markets Headed For Steep Correction [View article]
    It's all bs. The market is "correct" every minute of every day. It always perfectly prices itself based on all available data. That's why I never listen to anyone who says prices will go up or prices will go down. No one knows! As evidence of Mr. Faber saying the market will go down 40% in early 2012. Here we are, 40% up! not down!
    Apr 14, 2014. 11:08 AM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Beating The Market With Growth Stocks Portfolio [View article]
    Late to the party, but unfortunately backtests like this don't work because of survivorship bias. What you'd need to do to really test this theory is somehow obtain this data for companies 5 years ago, 10 years ago, and 15 years ago and then see how they did from then to now. Many of these stocks that now trade at these fundamentals probably didn't in the past when they would have been great buys as you found out. We have no idea from this information what they will do in the future.
    Apr 13, 2014. 08:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [View article]
    yea, and some blackjack traders can get good returns over the short run too. But in aggregate, traders severely lag the market. I'm not saying there aren't some traders who genuinely can generate alpha over the long run, but that is a very, very small % of traders. Stats prove it. If you have evidence to the contrary, that any trader has significantly generated 20+% returns over a 10+ year period, I'd love to see it. Perhaps it can be done and has been done, but I've never seen it so I am not a believer.
    Apr 13, 2014. 08:03 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [View article]
    As a buy and hold investor that indexes midcaps with 70% and selects long term holdings in individual picks with the rest, I can expect 10-12% pre-inflation compounding or 7-9% real returns. For "traders" to do better than me, they have to get 17-20% returns every year due to taxes and transaction fees. Is that achievable? perhaps by the top 1% of traders, but statistics show that the average trader in fact obtains about 2% returns, severely lagging the index, much less beating it.

    On top of that, my time is worth $100 an hour. That's not theoretical, that's what I actually get paid at my job. Even if these traders could get 20+% returns, how much time is required to do so? It's a losing game. Buy and hold is the sane way to invest.
    Apr 13, 2014. 01:58 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Stocks Won't Crash (For Now) [View article]
    High profit margins are here to stay and even climb. There is a paradigm shift towards automation that will continue to grow stronger and stronger until jobs won't exist in 50 years as robots take over everything. The market may correct 10-20% in the short term as that's always a possibility based on emotions. Who cares? It's impossible to predict. Just buy and hold
    Apr 13, 2014. 01:40 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Tableau & Splunk: Do Price Pullbacks Represent Good Entry Points? [View article]
    You appear to know more about both business models, so perhaps you are right. I said that simply because DATA trades for lower P/S while also having higher revenue growth rate over the past year and higher GM. Without knowing anything about the business models & future outlook, it looks like DATA is better. So SPLK is priced as if it has more room to grow. Perhaps that's the case. I already own DATA, but my high growth expensive stock list is already filled in so I probably won't be purchasing SPLK this year.
    Apr 12, 2014. 08:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Where I Would Be A Buyer In The 3-D Space [View article]
    Ridiculous statement than any company selling for more than 5x sales is a bubble. This is true only for industries with below 20% growth and low GMs. Most of the best investments of all time have been companies that traded seemingly expensively during their early years (msft, goog, gild, amzn, etc). The pullback in ddd has been healthy, but its a good buy at 50. If it drops to 20s or 30s even better, but theres probably a low chance that it will, so you are gambling by waiting. I believe ddd will trade at 1000 by 2030. You have to pay for great companies. Use these industry wide pullbacks to pick up the long term winners at a discount.
    Apr 11, 2014. 12:20 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
COMMENTS STATS
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172 Likes