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Thales622

Thales622
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  • BIDU Ready To Go Off The Cliff [View instapost]
    I've been doing different studies, but mine are showing the same indication too
    Jun 20 12:13 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom Is In For 3D Systems [View article]
    7.73% in 5 days. I guess if you are an "investor" you can't see a trade.
    Trading is different
    Jun 17 04:23 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom Is In For 3D Systems [View article]
    No, I meant Villere & Co have 5 stars. They are good stock pickers.
    Jun 14 08:28 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom Is In For 3D Systems [View article]
    Villere & Co like it at this price. So do I.
    They have a 5 star rating from monrningstar.
    http://cnb.cx/1lsHdbX
    Jun 13 08:25 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 3D Printing Debunked, Part 2: Industries [View article]
    No reference to the 3D/google project Ara here, you really need to address it. Its a test case for mass production and if it turns out they can create efficiency and cost gains it will be a be value driver going forward.

    3D Systems to Increase 3D Printing Speeds By 50X for Google’s Project Ara
    http://bit.ly/1irTZTR
    Jun 12 06:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Bottom Is In For 3D Systems [View article]
    I don't think you are doing enough research. This project is huge:

    "3D Systems to Increase 3D Printing Speeds By 50X for Google’s Project Ara"
    http://bit.ly/1irTZTR
    Jun 12 05:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Corn Will Not Be The Next Coffee [View article]
    Nice article but do you just trade off the CoT report? What's the signal accuracy?

    What I've found is when the net positioning in the CoT is wrong, its really wrong and there is a big move in the other direction from what the CoT might indicate.

    I've got some other indicators that have been telling me to expect for a rise in corn into August so I took a long position 10 Feb.
    Feb 21 10:39 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    Just a possibility (not sure how likely), but the CEO could take out his wallet. He is worth 300 million "He sold some of his machinery rights to Abbott Laboratories Inc. for a whopping $300 million".

    I replied to your (somewhat rude) comments a couple of weeks ago dwallam and you never got back to me. You can still do so if you think you have something to offer. Check elsewhere on this page if you haven't seen my other comments yet.
    Nov 5 08:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    6. And one for the road:

    "But [Jonnie] Williams rightly predicted that providing technology for laser surgery to correct nearsightedness would be a booming business. He sold some of his machinery rights to Abbott Laboratories Inc. for a whopping $300 million"

    If this guy believes in his company he can support it alone for a couple of years. He has very deep pockets.

    http://bit.ly/H3YbNj
    Oct 19 09:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    Oh and I forgot 5. they need to suspend R&D and maybe anything else cap ex related and just run operations but I haven't done the numbers so I don't know how far that would extend things
    Oct 19 04:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    Again, if they issue the same amount of shares so the price halves then go on to become truly established in the marketplace in a couple of years and the share price goes up by 20, then I've still made x10 so for me the risk/reward looks right, I'm getting 10:1 odds.

    Secondly, the sales stagnating proposition is mis-interpreting the financials, I've been at pains to explain what I can see and if you go back and read them again you *will* see what I mean. If you look at the sales alone, you see them flat lining, but where do sales come from? They either come from someone going out and pushing the product OR they come from a buzz on the marketplace/word of mouth and repeat sales. If you look at all other quarters apart from the last, you will see that up until last quarter the increase in net sales was a function of the
    increase in the sales/marketing costs. If you look at the numbers, you *will* see this. In this last quarter you will see the sales/marketing costs have gone down whilst the sales have increased (its modest, but its there). So, the question is, where are these sales coming from if the sales reps aren't doing it? You need to answer me that, because if a company has a product that sells itself, then you can be sure its worth something and shrewd people will understand that.

    So to address the short term issues, yes they have a cashflow problem but cashflow problems are for the most part temporary, and the question is how to get round it and for that I see at least 4 options, 2 of which you have not considered.

    1. Bankruptcy
    2. Dilution
    3. Bridging loan
    4. Buy out

    Regarding 3, I see this as a possibility whereas Paulo doesn't. Interest rates are low so banks need to search for yield, the ISM PMI indicates economic expansion, if the CEO has a good relationship with his bank manager, or some contacts somewhere he *might* be able to get a bridging loan. Its not out of the question.

    Regarding 4, I just got off the phone with a professional and I told him about the company, the product and he said if the product is as good as I said then they will likely be a buy-out target. Its already publically traded so you can be sure its on the radar of a number of small brokers. He took a look at it but said he couldn't do anything with it because his clients would only look at companies with a market share of 1 billion. The buy out is a lower probability and I'm not counting on it, but its definitely a possibility which you guys haven't thought about.

    But to reiterate, you are not considering the risk/reward. I'm talking about a 10 bagger and as such, I'm not betting my whole bankroll. When I first took a look at this company some 6 months ago I had a target for about 2-2.5 years until they had a positive EPS, thats when I think there are going to be significant gains if any.
    Oct 19 05:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    dwdallam,

    I've read the financials but in addition to the financials there is the product. The financials tell you only about the past, right?

    The point about the sales is as this is a new company its essentially a start up so you need a lot of money at the start to establish the product and they have managed to become a number 1 vendor for GNC within 1 year.

    Secondly because of this you need to consider the financials as a ratio of marketing/sales because what you need to see is marketing/sales spend going down whilst the sales continue as this indicates the product is selling in its own right and if you look at the last quarter although modest this is indeed what has happened.

    Lastly, I possess more facts than you; you are looking at the financials and I look at the financials and use the product. I know I will be using it for the rest of my life because its so good, so I know the company value should be understood in relation to the future cash flows and in my case - and many others - its an entire lifetime.

    So as I said, even if they dilute or get a bridging loan for a couple of years I am confident they will sell the product in the future so if they dilute by half then go on to sell much more in the future then I still make money.

    So be a good analyst, do your due diligence, spend 80 USD and see if the product is any good. Thats what a good analyst would do - be empirical. After that tell me if the company has a future or not.
    Oct 17 03:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    Yes this is true, however to be completely objective perhaps you might invest 80 USD in their product then decide its value (the product's value, not the company) after that?

    If you want to be empirical, thats the correct test. I think any good analyst would go the store and try the product of any company that retails something they could be interested in.

    Furthermore, if they dilute by 50% and the stock goes up x10 then I still make good money.

    Anyway, I'm quite confident I will.
    Oct 16 12:27 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    As I said before I think your piece was pretty good from observations on the financials.
    One thing I do disagree with is you calling the product "vaporware". The fact that its a number 1 seller via GNC indicates otherwise.
    Anyway, it definitely works, I know from my own experience.

    However, here is one doctor who does recommend it:
    http://bit.ly/1fCOHHn

    Some interesting research:
    http://bit.ly/1fCOK61

    Some anecdotal stuff, heres a lady whom it helped:
    http://bit.ly/sq5V4k
    Some sports testimonials
    http://bit.ly/1fCOHHv

    Keep your eye on the sales in the coming quarters
    Oct 16 11:40 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Star Scientific: Cash Strapped And Under The Influence Of Death-Spiral Financing [View article]
    Had to nip out, couldn't reply sooner.
    I think you misunderstood my post, I was suggesting they get a bridging loan (or maybe something a little longer) which is neither dilution nor bankruptcy.

    The reasons a bank might find this interesting being:
    - they have no debt currently
    - interest rates are at the floor
    - the fact they are getting sales as marketing has decreased indicates the product has legs which is what a bank would be interested in
    - the ISM PMI shows the US economy is expanding

    If my analysis of the marketing to sales ratio is correct then the only issue they have is that of cashflow and if this is the case then I don't see why debt isn't the better option.
    Do you have reasons why you think this shouldn't be the case?
    Oct 14 04:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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