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Rickthegeek

Rickthegeek
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  • AuRico Gold (AUQ -2.2%) reports two deaths at its El Chanate mine in Mexico, which it says will impact production for the balance of the year and thus reduce full-year gold production to 70K-75K oz. [View news story]
    It is a big surprise that Gold Miners are doing as well as they are. It has been determined that Gold Miners have been stating their projected earnings on what was in the ground before actually spending the money to extract it. The cost to extract has excalated beyond what is profitable for the company. Most all of the Miners have understated the cost per ounce by HUGE margins. The actual cost per ounce for some is in the 2500 dollar range. This means now they are all losing money. I would stay away from any gold miner at this point.
    Nov 14, 2012. 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q3 (1st estimate): +2.0% vs. +1.9% consensus, +1.3% previous. [View news story]
    That is the truth. Government spending up 9.6%. The actual is 1.3% GDP if you take out Government.
    Oct 26, 2012. 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Fed Bets It All On A Fifty-Fifty Chance [View article]
    Some interesting things here. What we can take from this is don't put all your eggs in one basket.

    Some good comments here. But, have to disagree with the Gold call. As long as the Fed continues to print money, this will cause the dollar to shrink. As long as the dollar falls, Gold will climb. If there is a total debasement of our dollar and if it loses it's world status, people who own Gold will be the only ones that will be able to save some of their money and not lose it all.

    If the dollar goes down 10%, and you have a 100,000 dollar portfolio, you just lost 10,000 dollars. Right now, you can not have all cash.

    So, where do you put your money right now? With inflation on the way, it is going to cost more to produce and manufacture anything. With this QE Unlimited, the printing presses are in full gear. Be prepared for rising costs on just about everything.

    What you should own today is:

    1. Gold
    2. Silver
    3. Mining Companies
    4. Coal
    5. Energy Stocks-Be Selective
    6..Agriculture Companies
    7. Natural Resources
    8. Rare Metals
    9. Food Companies
    10. Dollar Stores
    11. Select Retail For Clothing

    The rule here would be to focus on companies that people have to have to survive and companies that make, sell and distribute products that offset the dollar decline.

    Next year, regardless of who gets elected to office, the country will fall back into recession. For now though, and for the next 6 months, the Dow could reach 16,000. My prediction 3 years ago was that today the Dow would reach 13,000. That came true. Now, it is very possible the Dow will increase 15% to 20% before it pulls back. We can thank our friend Ben for this.
    Sep 16, 2012. 03:32 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P 500 earnings in 2012 will shatter records for the index, ING's Doug Cote predicts. “Things are a lot better than most people think, because the fundamentals press on despite the global risk," Cote says, seeing a 12.5% rise to 1425 in the S&P index. “The level of corporate profits is at an all-time high and the S&P is still at 1267, and that's why you need to be in equities."  [View news story]
    I don't know what planet this guy is living on, but it is not this one.
    Dec 28, 2011. 12:32 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour: Dow +2.35%. 10-yr -0.43%. Euro +0.58% vs. dollar. Crude +3.11% to $96.97. Gold +1.11% to $1614.45.  [View news story]
    I was wrong! Earlier I stated that there has already been a Santa Clause rally and I doubted there would be a second one, "not likely". Well here it is all in one day! Dow up 275 points! The only people in on this profit were the pre-marketers and those willing to buy on stocks up 2% or more on the open.

    Still, nothing concrete has changed except for some civil unrest in one oil producing nation in the far east, which is suppose to drive oil up over 3%? Just exactly how much of this oil is shipped to the United States? And, supposedly, aren't we suppose to be oil saturated with all of these shale oil finds anyway in a little while? Who really knows whats really going on.

    Everything is bad one day and 24 hours later everything is good. As Jim Cramer says, buy, buy, buy. But, even Cramer said, "we are now selling on hope and buying on hope." Not a good investment strategy.
    Dec 20, 2011. 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Word that BofA (BAC -4.8%) trades below $5 could test the mettle of value investor Warren Buffett as his paper loss on warrants pushes over $1B - presumably a big number even for the Oracle. But cushioning the blow for Buffett will be the $300M in dividends he rakes annually no matter how far down into the abysss BAC falls. [View news story]
    Buffet will dump his shares of BAC. So will Donald Trump. It is not whether they will or not, it is a question of when they will. Another 10% down will be 4.50 a share. When it gets to this point, massive selling will ensue and BAC will be right back to where it was in 2009, around 2.00.
    Dec 19, 2011. 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Fading For A Christmas Rally [View article]
    Also, the reason Gold is pulling back is because the Europe countries need liquidity now. They are so far in over their heads financially, that the massive shares of GLD and gold stocks they bought are now being sold any time GLD or gold stocks rally. This will go on well into next year until Europe can get their fiscal houses in order. This will take some time, it could be another 2 years.

    Even one of the talking heads on CNBC talking with Rick Santelli this morning confirmed that Gold is heading lower. His reason was a technical patterned graph which showed that there has been no true fair price established for Gold this year (2011). There has been 3 spikes of heavy volume this year, with a pullback. He said Gold may be headed to 1300. He also said that what he is seeing now is the same scenario setup that was seen in late 2008 when the market crashed.

    I think there will be a pullback, but not sure how severe. America seems to be in better shape than the European countries. The problem is we are in this together. This is a world issue, not an American one and no one really has a firm grasp on how to solve it.
    Dec 19, 2011. 03:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Time Fading For A Christmas Rally [View article]
    Hey Keith, in case you missed it, we already had a Christmas Rally. It came a little sooner this year. What you are asking for is a 2nd Christmas Rally, that is like asking Santa to give you presents twice a year. Not likely.
    Dec 19, 2011. 03:16 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour: Dow +2.78%. 10-yr -0.38%. Euro +0.73% vs. dollar. Crude +1.68% to $98.39. Gold +1.77% to $1718.35.  [View news story]
    Can you say DEAD CAT BOUNCE?
    Nov 28, 2011. 12:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Pimco's El-Erian finds it "terrifying" there is a discussion about recession with unemployment already high, 25% of homeowners underwater, government deficits of 9% of GDP, and interest rates at zero. "The big concern is ... being tipped over by Europe ... things are getting worse, not better."  [View news story]
    Fear of recession? I think in 10 years when we look back, we are already in one now. And, next year, we are heading for a depression. Europe is already in a recession and their depression is right around the corner, now.

    Depressions are marked by things like civil unrest, protests, unemployment (there is nothing worse than a person wanting to work, yet can't find anything). Currency devaluation and a broke Government. The next thing to hit is riots (we have seen that in Europe already), martial law and crime sprees of the likes we have never seen.

    In case you missed it, these things are happening right here in America. It is happening in towns, cities all across America, right now. Don't dismiss it, like it is not happening, it is.

    The real change that is going to take place is when we realize our government can not possibly pay and take care of its own citizens. Why? Because our government is Bankrupt!

    The next step will be to throw the bums out! Example: We are finding out our leaders, yes the ones we have elected to office with our vote have participated in insider trading. They were shorting stocks well before the public knew the information. Let's think about this, this is illegal. The people involved in this (Ben Bernake) for one, should be immediately terminated. There absolutely must be an investigation on this and a hearing. He is guilty as sin.

    If this is what our leaders are up to, how can they be trusted to make the right decisions for Americans? They can't. Therefore, they must be thrown out.
    Nov 22, 2011. 03:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Equity Market Still Isn't Worth The Risk [View article]
    The truth of the matter is that Europe is in deep trouble. There simply is no way out of this mess. The gold that europe has, it is now selling to try to raise some cash. Gold, silver are not safe. Once this contagion hits and more banks fail, it is going to bring the markets to new lows. My suggestion is to find a stock, ETF or something to short.
    Nov 22, 2011. 02:56 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • "The best thing that Wall Street may have going for it," writes Paul Lim in the NYT, "is that so many investors are pessimistic." That's because sentiment is a "contrarian indicator" for future activity. Similarly for consumer confidence, which continues to slump even as retail sales rise.  [View news story]
    Actually, when you have an over 400 point advance and decline in the DOW in one day, there are still serious problems. (Friday the 21st had an over 400 point swing) The market reacts to even the tiniest bit of news that can drive the market down 300 or 400 in the blink of an eye. The only people making money now are the people who sit at their computers from 7am until 8pm. They have one finger on the sell button and one finger on the buy button. Unfortunately, the market is rigged against the normal investor with a buy and hold strategy. Right now, we are at the top of the range and I listen to the talking heads on CNBC say "if we can just have a breakout, we have been in this trading range for the past few months" How can we have a true breakout when we have all of the same issues unresolved? Still, all of the same problems exist. Greece will default, along with Italy, Spain and Portugal. There really is nothing to spur the market higher. A big earnings story that has gotten missed is Apple missed estimates. There has not been enough said about it. It is the first miss for Apple since the early 2000's (did not get the year).

    Suprisingly the author still misses the big picture. 9% unemployment with a real rate of 15 to 20%. People who have given up looking scew the numbers even worse, unemployed, underemployed, people now maxing out their credit cards (how else do you explain the meteoric rise in Mastercard, which will plummet when people can not pay their minimum payment and default on their bill) Has anyone noticed that?

    One final note Altera Corporation missed estimates and sales decreased by 5 million for the quarter, but their stock price jumped 12.17% on Friday based on optimism. I have a gut feeling that on Monday it will be down 10%. Ticker symbol ALTR.
    Oct 23, 2011. 09:52 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 4 Stocks That Buffett Could Buy Now [View article]
    Cash out now. The market is getting ready to crash.
    Feb 9, 2011. 12:30 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Youku Really Be Worth? [View article]
    Consider yourself lucky. You won the gambling frenzy. Go out and smoke a cigar.
    Dec 11, 2010. 06:42 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • What Should Youku Really Be Worth? [View article]
    Great question. Why does Goldman Sachs get to buy it for $12.80?
    Dec 11, 2010. 06:39 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
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