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Rickthegeek

Rickthegeek
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  • Portfolio Protection Playbook: Federal Reserve Indifferent About Risk [View article]
    He said limit order for AMZN. You should always decide up front what you are willing to buy a stock at, nothing wrong with that.
    May 5, 2013. 06:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • What To Sell, What To Buy, And What To Stay Away From This May [View article]
    Nice article. I am right there with you on everything that you said here except for the buying the homebuilders. Simply, most all the homebuilders are over-bought. You also don't want to buy any of the homebuilders who have not participated in the rally, there is a reason for it. (companies who are struggling and will continue to do so)

    I don't think there will be a sell in May this year. Mainly for the reason you all stated here, no need to repeat the obvious.

    There is some real value right now in technology stocks. Some of them, not all of them. Most technology is under owned and unloved. This is what you should be looking for when buying stocks. QCOM is at a good buy point, so is AAPL. I also recently trashed AMZN, but it is the online retail leader and although their numbers were a little soft for profit, they still have strong revenue numbers. I will be starting a long position with AMZN, probably on Monday.

    Your recommendation for CLF is interesting, but would not buy it. I was just sitting here researching them before reading this article. They have a P/E ratio of 9.86 and a dividend of 3%. Looking at the charts, they are set for a rebound. But, they have way to much debt for me to be comfortable with.

    As far as Gold, Silver etc., right now, it is scary. As long as the printing presses are pumping out dollars, it is hard to own them right now. It is always good to keep some, but would not initiate any long positions now. The Federal Reserve has our back.
    May 5, 2013. 04:27 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • With SDN, Cisco Will Unlock Value Of Installed Hardware Worth $180 Billion [View article]
    I agree, CSCO is dirt cheap. As with most of the technology stocks.
    May 4, 2013. 10:18 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Avoid The U.S. Dollar And Euro, Not Precious Metals And The Miners [View article]
    The cost is to much to extract and miners are not making a profit. If you have to own anything in the metals, you should own physical gold and physical silver in case there is panic in the street (coins and bullion). Otherwise, because of the Fed, you have to buy stocks. I know it is hard to find value out there, it seems like everything has run up, you will have to dig to find a few bargains.

    Right now, technology looks oversold. I think bargains are AAPL, QCOM, CISCO. Some of the others in technology are over done, like INTC, MSFT, BRCM.

    Of course, there could be a 5 to 10% correction any day, but every single time the market goes down, the next day it is back up again.
    May 3, 2013. 06:51 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Newmont Mining (NEM -6.5%) shares tumble to 2008 lows as mining costs keep leaking higher, even after costs surged 40% between 2010 and last year. Also, Q1 profits fell 36% and gold production slipped 11%. Jefferies cuts its target price to $32 from $40, perhaps the first of several downgrades and/or price-target cuts in store for NEM. [View news story]
    This will be the same for miners in general. You should be out of GDX, GLD, SLV etc., and into stocks, any stocks, at least until the printing presses get turned off, then who knows. Once the presses get turned off there is no telling where the market is going. For now, keep buying stocks.

    Isn't it great that our government allows our markets to be so out of whack? You can not even determine companies fair value.
    Apr 30, 2013. 02:38 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Why Angie's List Is A Sell Or A Short Right Here [View article]
    Totally agree. Angie's List does not produce or manufacture anything. Their business model is based on subscribers to their rating service.

    Some of their numbers look good on the surface, but if you dig down and actually look at their balance sheet you will see the last 2 quarters alone they have a net loss, would indicate that they are treading water. The fact their stock went up 28% yesterday just does not make any sense.
    Apr 26, 2013. 09:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Angie's List Management Discusses Q1 2013 Results - Earnings Call Transcript [View article]
    They are still operating at a net loss. The bottom line is do they have more money going out than they have coming in.

    You have to remember with this company, they do not manufacture or make anything.

    They only provide a service. Members post comments about contractors they hired to do work for them and give them a grade from an A to F and make comments on that contractor. The member reporting is the one doing all the work.

    The only thing Angie's List has to do is spend money on advertising to drive new members to their website to join their rating service. Plus, they have to maintain their website and publish a monthly coupon magazine (very poor, I get it every month and it goes straight in the recycle container). That is it.

    So, even though some of their numbers look good, right now they are operating at a net loss. Does this justify a jump in their stock of 28%?
    Apr 26, 2013. 09:02 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Q1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $16.07B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $90M. Expects Q2 revenue of $14.5B-$16.2B vs. $15.9B consensus. Expects Q2 operating income of -$340M to +$10M; EPS consensus is at $0.22. Shares +1.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Yes it beat wall streets lowered "9 cents EPS expectations". What we are looking at is another case of manufactured earnings surprise.

    The analyst have an easy job. All they have to do is continue to do the same thing, quarter after quarter, year after year. If they keep lowering expectations then each quarter the company will unbelievably "beat" expectations. So the stock goes up. The truth, AMZN is doing worse now than it was last year (yoy).

    So, eventually the stock will have to come back to fair value. It is only a matter of time. It could be in the next 2 weeks, 2 months or next year. Hard to tell with so much dumb money chasing the stock.

    I still think you have to buy stocks, we don't have much choice. Just not this one. But, you don't buy a stock with net income misses. I think net income is the single most important measure of how a company is doing. You can't continue to sell your products at cost just to juice the revenue numbers when your company does not make any profit on the products.
    Apr 25, 2013. 05:03 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amazon.com (AMZN): Q1 EPS of $0.18 beats by $0.09. Revenue of $16.07B (+22% Y/Y) misses by $90M. Expects Q2 revenue of $14.5B-$16.2B vs. $15.9B consensus. Expects Q2 operating income of -$340M to +$10M; EPS consensus is at $0.22. Shares +1.4% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Amazon results:

    EPS today 18 cents

    Last year EPS 28 cents

    Down 35.7% (yoy)

    Net Income Today 82 million

    Last Year 130 million

    Down 36.9% (yoy)

    Is this suppose to be good? Yet the stock is at or near all time highs. Can you say bubble stock?
    Apr 25, 2013. 04:22 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Intel: Investors happy with capex revision, given industry conditions. Q1 gross margin was 56.2%, -180 bps Q/Q and -780 bps Y/Y, and below guidance midpoint of 58%. Q2 gross margin guidance of 56%-60%. But opex was $100M lower than guidance. PC CPU division sales (63% of total) -6% Y/Y, even with Q4's decline. Server division (20% of total) +7.5%, better than Q4's +4%. Other Intel architecture (Atom/embedded) -9%, worse than Q4's -7%. Software/services +3%. $533M in buybacks. PC CPU ASPs +1% Q/Q and Y/Y, server CPU ASPs -1% Q/Q and +2% Y/Y. INTC +0.7% AH. (PR) (CFO comments[View news story]
    Once again, a lackluster quarter and a significant drop in earnings (yoy) -24.53%.

    The other concern is INTC growth estimates:
    this quarter -22.60%
    next quarter -25.90%
    this year -10.80%

    Of course PC sales are down. But will ultrabooks make up the difference?

    I have owned INTC in the past and earlier this year, made money, took profits. But the outlook is what it is.

    When the best of breed is struggling you have to sit up and take notice. I don't see any reason to own this stock here. Sure they have a nice dividend, but if the stock tanks this is still a losing proposition any way you look at it.
    Apr 17, 2013. 10:17 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Though Drexel Hamilton has upgraded Intel (INTC -1%) to Buy, shares are lower following nearly in-line Q1 results and Q2 guidance that followed months of estimate cuts. RBC (Sector Perform) calls the results "better than feared," and is happy with Intel's capex forecast cut. SA contributor Bill Maurer points out Intel's Q1 buyback activity ($533M) represented a major drop from the ~$1B in buybacks seen in each of the prior 3 quarters, and also notes Intel's short interest has surged to 239M shares from 89M over the last year. (more) (CC transcript[View news story]
    What really concerns me is this lackluster quarter and a significant drop in earnings (yoy) -24.53%.

    The other concern is INTC growth estimates:
    this quarter -22.60%
    next quarter -25.90%
    this year -10.80%

    Of course PC sales are down. But will ultrabooks make up the difference?

    When the best of breed is struggling you have to sit up and take notice. I don't see any reason to own this stock here. Sure they have a nice dividend, but if the stock tanks this is still a losing proposition.
    Apr 17, 2013. 10:00 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel Corporation - Awaiting A New CEO And Future Growth [View article]
    That is it. I have officially given up on INTC for this year. What really concerns me is this lackluster quarter and a significant drop in earnings (yoy) -24.53%.

    The other concern is INTC growth estimates:
    this quarter -22.60%
    next quarter -25.90%
    this year -10.80%

    Of course PC sales are down. But will ultrabooks make up the difference?

    When the best of breed is struggling you have to sit up and take notice. I don't see any reason to own this stock here. Sure they have a nice dividend, but if the stock tanks this is still a losing proposition.
    Apr 17, 2013. 09:58 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intel (INTC): Q1 EPS of $0.40 misses by $0.01. Revenue of $12.58B (-2.5% Y/Y) misses by $30M. Expects Q2 revenue of $12.4B-$13.4B vs. $12.9B consensus. Expects "low single-digit" 2013 revenue growth, unchanged from prior guidance and compares with 0.7% consensus. Lowers 2013 capex guidance range by $1B to $11.5B-$12.5B. Shares +2.1% AH. CC at 5PM ET (webcast). (PR[View news story]
    Once again, CNBC does a poor job of reporting the facts on INTC. Here are the facts:

    1. EPS down 24.53% year over year, for same quarter as last year.
    2. EPS down 16.67% from previous quarter.
    3. Revenue down 2.53% from year earlier quarter.
    4. Revenue down 6.66% from previous quarter.
    5. Outlook for the rest of the year "negative".

    The reason most of the companies are matching or beating estimates of EPS is lowered estimates by analysts. Companies are not really doing better by beating lowered expectations.

    I am really surprised that INTC is not down 10%.
    Apr 16, 2013. 05:57 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • More on Intel: Investors happy with capex revision, given industry conditions. Q1 gross margin was 56.2%, -180 bps Q/Q and -780 bps Y/Y, and below guidance midpoint of 58%. Q2 gross margin guidance of 56%-60%. But opex was $100M lower than guidance. PC CPU division sales (63% of total) -6% Y/Y, even with Q4's decline. Server division (20% of total) +7.5%, better than Q4's +4%. Other Intel architecture (Atom/embedded) -9%, worse than Q4's -7%. Software/services +3%. $533M in buybacks. PC CPU ASPs +1% Q/Q and Y/Y, server CPU ASPs -1% Q/Q and +2% Y/Y. INTC +0.7% AH. (PR) (CFO comments[View news story]
    Once again, CNBC does a poor job of reporting the facts on INTC.

    1. EPS down 24.53% year over year, for same quarter as last year.
    2. EPS down 16.67% from previous quarter.
    3. Revenue down 2.53% from year earlier quarter.
    4. Revenue down 6.66% from previous quarter.
    5. Outlook for the rest of the year "negative".

    The reason most of the companies are matching or beating estimates of EPS is lowered estimates by analysts. Companies are not doing really doing better by beating lowered expectations.

    I am really surprised that INTC is not down 10%.
    Apr 16, 2013. 05:48 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Trouble Ahead For The Gold Bears [View article]
    If you go back and look at the long term charts for the past 20 years on GOLD, you will see that from 1993 through most of 1996 GOLD sat at around 400 dollars an ounce.

    From late 1996 through early 2001, GOLD bottomed at around 150 an ounce. Then, it has had a meteoric rise to today's price of 1480. (1800 or so a few months ago). This is an increase of about 900% in only 12 years. The only year that there was not an increase was in 2008.

    In 2008, GOLD bottomed at around 725, those who took the plunge at that price, doubled their money to today's price. Since 2008 there has been a lot of "new money" piling into GOLD because of the uncertainty of the economic picture, what our government was going to do, bailouts, Greece, Spain, Portugal, Italy, etc. There still is uncertainty in the markets, but one thing for sure is certain, the printing presses will continue to print.

    The reason people piled into GOLD in the past 4 years was that we did not know QE Unlimited was going to take place. Now that we know for sure that this year and the next year, the printing will not stop, we know that asset prices will continue to rise.

    The continuing printing of dollars will continue to keep interest rates down and keep interest rates of an average savings account at or near 0%. This will and is forcing people to buy stocks to get some type of return. There is no other way right now. We can thank Ben Bernake.

    In regards to, is now a good time to be buying GOLD? I think if you hold onto your GOLD you will be holding on to a falling knife. As long as the Federal Reserve does not turn the printing presses off, stock prices will continue to rise. As soon as the printing presses are turned off, that will be the time to buy GOLD. This will not occur this year or next year. When the Fed stops printing money, the market will lose 50%. Until then, try to get some returns on good high quality stocks. Follow the trends of the stock, especially now. This is also not the time to buy stocks that have not performed well in the past couple of months. Ride the wave, not the trough.

    So the reality is you should buy stocks not GOLD right now.
    Apr 13, 2013. 12:49 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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