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Rickthegeek

Rickthegeek
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  • Dead Cats Do Bounce, But Volatility Lies Ahead [View article]
    Exactly.
    Nov 25 12:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • 7.8T reasons dividend tax increases won’t crush stocks: That's the estimated value of all equity assets held by retirement investors that are not tax sensitive. Though it seems counterintuitive, Lucas Kawa thinks an increase on dividend tax rates might actually benefit the millions who hold high-yield dividend stocks in their IRAs and are able to buy into a potential sell without being impacted by the rising tax rate. [View news story]
    omg, the cat is out of the bag!
    Nov 24 06:29 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Intraday Market Notes: Tech's Tops! -- November 19 [View instapost]
    Hope is not a very good investment strategy as you know. What is getting brushed aside is how many companies this past quarter have missed on estimates. The last I heard over 60% have missed. Everyone has known for quite some time that sooner or later this fiscal cliff was going to catch up to us. The kicking the can down the road phenomenon will no doubt have it's day of reckoning sooner or later. The gamble now is, is it just around the corner or can we string this all along for another 6 months or a year.
    Nov 20 12:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Apple (AAPL) has reached the point of "insanely insane," says Topeka's Brain White, arguably the Street's biggest bull on the stock. Uber-bull or not, maybe he's got a point. Those selling Apple at a sub-10 PE while holding onto or buying Company X - with no earnings growth, selling at a 20 PE, but yielding 5% - may look back one day and wonder what they were thinking. [View news story]
    I am up 3% today on apple with 30,000 put in this am. Got in a little late but just booked a 900 dollar gain. Looking for it to go down tomorrow.
    Nov 19 11:57 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The selloff in Apple (AAPL) has reached the point of "insanely insane," says Topeka's Brain White, arguably the Street's biggest bull on the stock. Uber-bull or not, maybe he's got a point. Those selling Apple at a sub-10 PE while holding onto or buying Company X - with no earnings growth, selling at a 20 PE, but yielding 5% - may look back one day and wonder what they were thinking. [View news story]
    The thundering herd is all in today. Everything is fine. No worries.
    Nov 19 09:15 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    Not sure what you mean Mike.
    Nov 15 03:03 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    2016themovie dot com
    Nov 15 02:35 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    Hey Ray, I saw this movie last night, everyone you know, relatives, family, people you work with, needs to see this movie. It details the path Obama plans to take in the next 4 years. It is a real eye opener. I have no affiliations with the maker of this movie, none. I only wish more people knew of this. Please go to http://bit.ly/NatKWI
    Nov 15 02:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AuRico Gold (AUQ -2.2%) reports two deaths at its El Chanate mine in Mexico, which it says will impact production for the balance of the year and thus reduce full-year gold production to 70K-75K oz. [View news story]
    It is no secret that Gold Miners count their land and projected reserves as an asset. If we look at ABX for example, you will see on their balance sheet for December 30th, 2011, they show 30.132 billion for Property Plant and Equipment, as an asset. We will have to wait 6 weeks to see what it is for 2012. When these miners include reserves as assets, they skew the numbers in their favor. It makes it look like they are more profitable than they really are at producing on a per ounce basis.

    ABX has a total of 140 million ounces of reported reserves. What Wall Street sees is this big number of assets. What they don't know is the true, accurate amount of money that has been spent obtaining these reserves. When you calculate the amount of money spent on obtaining these reserves and the amount of ounces that can be extracted and the cost associated with it, most all of the gold miners are way over the current price of gold now, per ounce. If you get a calculator out and figure it out ABX is in the over 4000 dollar range per ounce.

    That is why when you look at ABX's key statistic page on Yahoo, you will see a Debt of 13.94 Billion this year, right now. I am just surprised that nobody has picked up on this.
    Nov 14 06:17 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Apple (AAPL -0.2%) roundup: 1) An unnamed Samsung official has denied a report claiming his company has hiked the price it charges for producing Apple's app processors by ~20%. 2) Gene Munster estimates the iPhone 5 and iPad Mini currently sport component margins of 69% and 43%. Apple's soft FQ1 margin guidance last month raised eyebrows. 3) A Cowen survey of U.S. adults found 12% claiming they plan to buy an iPad Mini; 52% of those respondents said they've never owned a tablet before. [View news story]
    The fact that Apple's newest device was a smaller version of a bigger version of the same thing (ipad to mini-ipad) is not very impressive. From what I am hearing is that even Microsoft's newest device, the surface, actually does more than the ipad. The only problem is Apple gets the love and Microsoft does not.

    There are also other problems with Apple and it is their iphones. Now, there is more competition than ever, and even the Samsung Galaxy S3 has more features and is more impressive than the iphone.

    As with every boom and bust, a company like Apple who has to continually come up with the next best thing (and others in this arena) it is only a matter of time before their next best thing just isn't good enough. Then, look out below. Their stock will tank, just the bubbles of the dot.com era did.

    The only true, safe companies are the ones who year after year, provide the same product, they don't have to re-invent themselves every quarter. These are the companies you know, PG, KO, BUD, PM, etc.

    Apple and companies like them are fad companies. Fad companies get smacked. When they fall, they fall hard and fast.
    Nov 14 03:18 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • No one can predict the future, but that central banks will continue pump-priming next year is about as certain as it gets. Look for gold to take out $2K/oz. in 2013 as a result, says Deutsche's Ray Key. Bulls should nevertheless take caution at these levels, he says, because the market "remains fundamentally long." A two-handed forecast if there ever was one. [View news story]
    Gold OK, gold miners not.
    Nov 14 11:02 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • AuRico Gold (AUQ -2.2%) reports two deaths at its El Chanate mine in Mexico, which it says will impact production for the balance of the year and thus reduce full-year gold production to 70K-75K oz. [View news story]
    It is a big surprise that Gold Miners are doing as well as they are. It has been determined that Gold Miners have been stating their projected earnings on what was in the ground before actually spending the money to extract it. The cost to extract has excalated beyond what is profitable for the company. Most all of the Miners have understated the cost per ounce by HUGE margins. The actual cost per ounce for some is in the 2500 dollar range. This means now they are all losing money. I would stay away from any gold miner at this point.
    Nov 14 10:03 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • GDP Q3 (1st estimate): +2.0% vs. +1.9% consensus, +1.3% previous. [View news story]
    That is the truth. Government spending up 9.6%. The actual is 1.3% GDP if you take out Government.
    Oct 26 09:30 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • On the hour: Dow +2.35%. 10-yr -0.43%. Euro +0.58% vs. dollar. Crude +3.11% to $96.97. Gold +1.11% to $1614.45.  [View news story]
    I was wrong! Earlier I stated that there has already been a Santa Clause rally and I doubted there would be a second one, "not likely". Well here it is all in one day! Dow up 275 points! The only people in on this profit were the pre-marketers and those willing to buy on stocks up 2% or more on the open.

    Still, nothing concrete has changed except for some civil unrest in one oil producing nation in the far east, which is suppose to drive oil up over 3%? Just exactly how much of this oil is shipped to the United States? And, supposedly, aren't we suppose to be oil saturated with all of these shale oil finds anyway in a little while? Who really knows whats really going on.

    Everything is bad one day and 24 hours later everything is good. As Jim Cramer says, buy, buy, buy. But, even Cramer said, "we are now selling on hope and buying on hope." Not a good investment strategy.
    Dec 20 12:26 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Word that BofA (BAC -4.8%) trades below $5 could test the mettle of value investor Warren Buffett as his paper loss on warrants pushes over $1B - presumably a big number even for the Oracle. But cushioning the blow for Buffett will be the $300M in dividends he rakes annually no matter how far down into the abysss BAC falls. [View news story]
    Buffet will dump his shares of BAC. So will Donald Trump. It is not whether they will or not, it is a question of when they will. Another 10% down will be 4.50 a share. When it gets to this point, massive selling will ensue and BAC will be right back to where it was in 2009, around 2.00.
    Dec 19 03:50 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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