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mprofita

mprofita
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  • Protect Your Portfolio While VIX Futures Are Cheap [View article]
    Jay makes the critical point here that VXX is a poor proxy for VIX, the graph comparing the 2 tells all:

    http://tinyurl.com/cej...
    Apr 26 07:41 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • It's tough to find any market pros to go on the record, says a fired-up Gary Kaminsky, but what they're telling clients is the election was bad news for stocks. The bull market from the 2009 lows was about stocks priced for Armageddon meeting massive central bank stimulus, he says, but that dynamic is played out, leaving the markets to deal with the reality of a weak economy and questionable leadership in D.C. [View news story]
    Taxes have not actually gone up in the current administration and I think it's a misleading leap to suggest that increases for the top 2 percent would cascade to the rest of th population. Now that republicans can be guided by national interest and not just anti Obama obstructionism, there will be an opportunity for some fundamental changes to entitlements. For example, both Domenici-Rivlin and Simpson-Bowles, however, proposed to raise the income cap gradually to a level covering 90 percent of national earnings, which at current income levels would be equivalent to about $180,000. This would go along way to preserving the solvency of SSI

    We also dodged a bullet of runaway defense spending with the Obama election and may actually have a better chance to balance the budget. The Romney balance by growth credo was alot of wishful thinking.
    Nov 15 01:55 PM | 4 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Sell In May And Go Away: There Is Nothing To Like About Stocks Right Now [View article]
    The simple answer to your question regarding future earnings is the explosive growth of the middle class in very heavily populated countries in the emerging markets.
    May 3 04:23 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Currencies Favor Bears Longer-Term [View article]
    Pretty bold to predict a continued correlation (into the "long term") between the S&P and the Euro. Might it be just as likely that the two would detach at some point after the malaise in Europe is priced in and the situation has become more predictable/less uncertain?
    Dec 12 09:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • S&P Downgrade: Prospects for Dangerous Bifurcation of Sentiment [View article]
    Hi James, interesting commentary. My belief is that although the average Joe will not understand the intricacies of the S&P rating downgrade, they will understand the refutation of the validity of this action when bonds stay low confirming the market's belief that the US is still AAA. They will also hear the chorus of pundits asserting that S&P judgment is flawed and be aware that 2 other agencies have not downgraded. The average Joe is also aware of S&P's awful track record during the financial crisis. In addition I think there will be a patriotic backlash further sullying the image of the rating firm.
    Aug 7 10:54 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Zachary Karabell on the ratings agencies: "How did it come to this - that a trio of private-sector companies could wield such enormous influence? Somehow, these inept groups again find themselves destabilizing the global system in the name of preserving it... who the hell is David Beers and who elected him to be the arbiter of the American financial system?”  [View news story]
    The agencies are a significant component of this issue and the proof is in the bond market. If bond holders/traders actually believed that the U.S was in such dire straights then interest rates would move up on their own. The downgrade will produce a crisis by raising borrowing costs and sapping demand (which will constrain tax revenues and further expand the deficit).
    Jul 28 06:55 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Will Thursday's Weekly Claims Be the Boost the Market Needs? [View article]
    The well respected professiional gorup, the National Association of Colleges and Employers just released their fall forecast for the hiring of the class of 2011. Employers expect to hire 13.5% more grads this year than last. In the past a spike in hiring of grads has been a precursor to increased hiring in the broader market as employers try to bring new grasds into the pipeline based on expectations for their bsuinesses to expand. As a long time veteran college career services director, I have seen this scenario play out many times.
    Sep 15 01:47 PM | 5 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • High Probability for Lower Market Prices Ahead [View article]
    If an overwhelming preponderance of negative market calls from pundits is at all a contrarian indicator then the makret may actually be at a low point. It's hard to remember a time sincee March 2009 when there has been more universal condemnation fo the market (and we know what happended then).
    Aug 16 03:24 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
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