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megisto387

megisto387
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  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    ONP lists the truck breakdown in their rebuttal:

    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...

    Average of 39 trucks per day. They also give further explaination on normal pickup and delivery times.
    Aug 13, 2010. 02:52 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    seasaw:
    The problem is that you have provided no facts to support your analysis of the production lines. Doing an internet search on paper production lines leads to a lot of cookie cutter small scale machines producing 50 tons/day or so. The problem is, you can't just look at that picture and say, "well, that looks similar to ONP's production lines, so they must be the same". What I would like to see is a number of production lines that produce similar output to what ONP claims their production lines produce. If you can find those production lines and provide links, it would at least be much more benefical to your argument.
    Aug 13, 2010. 12:00 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    seasaw:
    Since you are clearly misrepresenting Mark's comment by not including his last paragraph, let me break it down for you:

    "So it is very obvious that it does not make any sense for Muddy Waters to compare ONP’s equipment to those companies"

    (yes, this is a quote from the original article)

    but

    ONP lists them as their main competitors in their filings with the SEC so it is absolutely right to look at companies ONP claims as competition. SEE SEC filings from ONP.

    (now Mark is saying that it is a legit comparison to make between ONP's equipment and their competitors'. That's fine that he feels this way, as he's entitled to his opinion, but this is the basis for my rebuttal and analogy.)

    can you say, intentional misstatement then? (one of the things they are being sued for btw). So if ONP is not comparable to these companies then they shouldn't have listed them as competition in their SEC filings. That my son is the definition of a misstatement.

    (this is where Mark is saying ONP makes a misstatement, which he clearly emphasizes with the last sentence as his premise)

    So your last comment completely ignores Mark's last paragraph, which is pretty much in line with your general distortion strategy in your arguments.

    I still doubt yours or anybody's ability to make a good assessment of ONP's capabilities based solely on the video. I will take an auditors first hand assessment of ONP's manufacturing operations over your video assessment any day. And I wish you the best if you are making investment decisions based on your assessment of a short video.

    As far as the auditors, I will trust their first hand assessment of documents and manufacturing operations over people's internet searches and video assessments every time, as I feel that most people will.
    Aug 12, 2010. 08:19 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    Keep in mind a stock's price is determined by how the investing public values the company and its future. Also keep in mind the entire investing public is not paranoid of multiple layers of corruption and conspiracy in the company, the reputable law firm, and the reputable audit committee all at once. No matter how hard you argue it, they will be given the benefit of the doubt over the conspiracy theorists.
    Aug 12, 2010. 06:34 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    Seasaw:
    Mark's original point was that ONP made a "misstatement" in listing the larger paper manufacturers as their main competition. How would you classify that as a misstatement by ONP?
    You do not have to have "comparable equipment" to be classified as a "competitor".

    And I certainly believe it is beyond your or my ability to make an assessment of ONP's production capabilities based on a short and limited video and some internet research on paper production lines, and especially with zero experience in the paper manufacturing industry.


    Aug 12, 2010. 06:07 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    Seasaw:
    You just continue to sarcastically distort. As you well know, the coffee cart analogy was an extreme example to make a point that there was no misstatement by ONP in saying the larger companies were their competitors. In that, it did its job well.
    Your argument that they are not capable of producing what they say they do is based on your assessment of some of their equipment in a short video. With no paper manufacturing experience or actual first hand exposure to their operating plant, you assessment has no merit. And in that, your distortion of my analogy is a poor one.
    Aug 12, 2010. 05:17 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    seasaw:
    Your distortion continues in its transparent fashion. You sarcastically address my response, which was merely an analogy meant to make a point. You try to attain credibility for yourself and send people off the trail by letting them know that you are intelligent (talking about economies of scale).
    My original post about Mark's argument was true and logical. It used an analogy to make a point. You seem like a fairly intelligent person, which is why I'm pretty sure you are consistently and deliberately trying to dismiss my arguments by leading people in another direction.
    Aug 12, 2010. 04:01 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    In addition to being an investment advisor, seasaw also has the accumen to determine how much paper a company is "obviously" producing or not producing by watching a short video. Perhaps he is also licensed in the paper manufacturing process. In any case, keep in mind this investment advisor did not do his due diligence on ONP before and while he was long the stock. It took the MW research report for him to accomplish the due diligence to go short on it. The lesson here is avoid the hedge fund that he advises for. Funny, I just realized how apropos the name "seasaw" is...
    Aug 12, 2010. 03:26 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    Mark:
    If you are going to make a point, you should use a correct example to back up that point. Amongst the many examples you claim to have, the one you selected to use does not validate your argument. There is no misstatement in saying that ONP is competing with larger paper manufacturers.
    Seasaw:
    I really do enjoy watching how you manage to distort what I say and attack my analogy. Let me give you more of my business plan that you dislike so much:
    My coffee cart will be on a main road with a concrete divider just a mile before the major highway where everyone drives to get to work in the morning. It would be in a place where it is just a nuisance to try to get to Starbucks across the street, so I get plenty of business from people who want a quick and convenient cup of coffee in the morning without the hassle. I only work for two hours a day because that is when the rush is. My only employee is myself, and I use cheap coffee. My competitor, Starbucks, still gets their business in the morning from the people who want the better cup of coffee and the Starbucks experience, but they also have four employess working at the same time, they rent the building they are in, they have to run their business from 5am till 11pm (even during the slow hours), and they have many more expenses due to more product offerings, electric bills, etc. (I could go on and on). My only advantage over my "competitor" is my location and higher margins (it costs less for me to make a cup of coffee for the reasons stated above). Funny how people value convenience. Why do you think you often see two Starbucks right across the street from eachother, and they both seem to do so well?
    Aug 12, 2010. 02:46 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Taking Another Look at Orient Paper's Innocence [View article]
    Mark:
    I think you're missing the point here. If I ran a coffee cart across the street from a Starbucks, I would consider them to be a competitor. Even though the coffee pot I use cost me $40 at Walmart, compared to Starbucks which has equipment in the thousands of dollars, I can still sell coffee and produce a profit...and I would be justified in saying that Starbucks was a competitor of mine.
    Aug 12, 2010. 10:18 AM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    seasaw:
    All I'm asking you to explain is your own personal research into the customer list, which you repeatedly avoid addressing. At this point, it's looking like less of an oversight on your part and more like a deliberate ommission because you have no valid information.
    Aug 4, 2010. 02:27 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    seasaw:
    The focal point of your entire argument revolves around the customer list, and yet you continue to not disclose any information you found from researching the customer numbers that Muddy Waters provides.
    When you provide proof that the information Muddy Waters provides is factual, then yes, attacking their credibility becomes a desperate attempt at avoiding the truth. Since you have made no claim to making any attempt to verify the accuracy of the customer list, you are essentially saying that you are more inclined to believe Muddy Waters just because they provided a piece of information (whether real or made up) that ONP did not.
    That is why ONP has brought on a big four audit firm, Deloitte and Touche...to confirm as an independent and unbiased third party that ONP's information checks out.
    Aug 4, 2010. 11:14 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    seasaw:
    I did not realize that length equals substance. In that case, I should go write a 31 page report on ONP with a few phone numbers, because that would make my report more credible than Muddy Waters'.
    ONP made their own detailed response, complete with links to photos, receipts, documents, and bank statements to back their response:
    www.sec.gov/Archives/e...
    The information in the response is also backed by auditors and actual companies in the paper industry that can be identified, which adds much more credibility than Muddy Waters.
    ONP is doing the right thing in waiting for the full results of the independent audit before they make any further responses.
    Also, I really enjoyed the fact that you pointed out on multiple occassions my lack of "skills and ability" in being able to research their customer list. Since you admit to being long and then short ONP, I'm assuming you have the "skills and ability" to do the research. By your own admission, it would take less time than writing posts and instablogs. If so, there are many people who would love to hear what you found. If not, then as you said to me, "I would be very careful if I were you investing in China at all."
    On a side note, I'm sure you'll try and sidestep this question, but what are your thoughts on my original article about Muddy Waters? Don't give me your "ad hominem" respones, either. Do you actually have a thought on the inconsistencies between what WAB Capital claims they do and Carson Block's story of what happened? There are actual facts there that can be verified.
    Aug 3, 2010. 11:56 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    seasaw:
    It does matter that Muddy Waters does not provide all the information concerning the customers. They made the incredibly serious accusation of fraud. Without giving accurate and substantial information to support that position, they are the equivalent of a hit and run, and their argument loses credibility.
    Aug 2, 2010. 04:27 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Muddy Waters Requires a Leap of Faith they don’t Deserve [View instapost]
    seasaw:
    I do not have the ability to read, nor to speak, any Chinese, as is the case for most people following along from outside of China. Most people simply do not have the ability to follow up based on Muddy Waters' list of company names and phone numbers. In fact, nobody on the long or short side has made any claim of following up on this information. And this is the one and only piece of information that Muddy Waters' gives for anyone to try and follow up on.
    Muddy Waters does state how they came about these phone numbers. For the sake of argument, if Muddy Waters fabricated a few phantom phone numbers, how would we be able to verify any information for ourselves? There is no claim as to the veracity of these phone numbers. If I call and don't get an answer, what am I to assume? Does the company not exist or did Muddy Waters fabricate a bogus phone number?
    Aug 2, 2010. 04:04 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
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