I have been trading max pain type data since 2007 after noting odd trading patterns centered around options expiry. I am a more conservative trader/investor and only take high probability trades. I prefer to know where stocks won’t be rather than guess where they will be. Trading with this mind set gives you 80% plus probability of being correct.
I have always been a stock market enthusiast. My formal training is that of informal. I am self taught, soaking up as much knowledge as can be absorbed. I love the financial industry and would work for free. I am a fundamental investor at heart and like crunching the numbers. I picked up on Max Pain theory and use option data as a main thesis in taking my positions.
In the beginning; when studying Max Pain I was truly amazed at the power it had in pulling or pushing AAPL around. I have seen the stock drop 5% out of nowhere with no news. The only news would be it was the 3rd Friday of the month. I then picked up on hitting the Max Pain strike was about 50/50 odds. Max Pain would give you a tell on what direction AAPL would start heading for expiry. I started to build a strategy from my studies. Using the Max Pain strike is not really tradable, good to know, but not tradable. So I started to study open interest (OI) and its affect on AAPL. Long story short, I have altered the original Max Pain theory and morphed it into what my own studies have concluded. I call this OI/Max Pain, it uses open interest and a range. This way it is tradable as I now have a high probability range. It doesn’t stop there, using OI will tell you so much more. How a stock reacts at each strike depending on the amount of OI is a major tell.
Conclusion: When using open interest you can accomplish multiple things. We can use it for OI/Max Pain when AAPL is stuck in a range and we can use it for catching breakouts, breakdowns, buy and sell points. Enjoy.
I want to give a special thanks to some of my early influences: Turley Muller, Andy Zaky and Jason Schwarz. I thank Philip Elmer-Dewitt for his coverage on AAPL and letting us have a voice, Horace Dediu for his tireless studies and anyone attached to the AAPL community.
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Willem Middelkoop (1962) author of The Big Reset, published in three languages English, Chinese and Dutch. He is founder of the Commodity Discovery Fund. In the Netherlands he is best known for his work as a business commentator for the RTL Z business channel between 2001 and 2008. He also founded Amsterdamgold.com, a web store for gold and silver bullion, in 2008. The webshop reached total sales of E120 mln in 2011, the year it was sold to a Dutch listed company. In his first book, in 2007, he warned of a possible crash of the global financial system, which by the end of 2008 was virtually a fact. The book is currently in its seventeenth print and over 50,000 copies have been sold. In total he sold over 100,000 books.
Hunter graduated with a Bachelors in Economics from the University of South Florida. He followed up with a Master's in Finance from the University of Tampa. During those years he earned the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
Alpha Street Research is a leading and award winning equity research firm. Our unbiased actionable and quantitative research helps investors identify individual equity opportunities and marco market opinions.
visit the site www.AlphaStreetResearch.com to learn more about the audited performance of the Alpha Street Research ranking system.
Editor for The Biotech Forum, the #2 subscribed to Marketplace investment service offered through SeekingAlpha. Top 5% ranked analyst (TipRanks) 2013 through first half of 2015. Daily contributor for Real Money Pro. Hedge fund manager from 2008 to 2011. Previously technology executive at Fortune 100 firm for a decade.
Please go to biotechforumsa.com for more on the Biotech Forum service available through SeekingAlpha. For Free Investment Reports on a variety of topics go to bretjenseninvests.com
Ashraf Eassa is a technology specialist with The Motley Fool. He writes mostly about technology stocks, but is especially interested in anything related to chips -- the semiconductor kind, that is.
James A. Kostohryz has accumulated over twenty years of experience investing and trading virtually every asset class across the globe.
Kostohryz started his investment career as an analyst at one of the US's largest asset management firms covering sectors as diverse as emerging markets, banking, energy, construction, real estate, metals and mining. Later, Kostohryz became Chief Global Strategist and Head of International Investments for a major investment bank. Kostohryz currently manages his own investment firm, specializing in proprietary trading and institutional portfolio management advisory.
Born in Mexico, Kostohryz grew up between south Texas and Colombia, has lived and worked in nine different countries, and has traveled extensively in more than 50 others. Kostohryz actively pursues various intellectual interests and is currently writing a book about the impact of culture on economic development. He is a former NCAA and world-class decathlete and has stayed active in a variety of sports.
Kostohryz graduated with honors from both Stanford University and Harvard Law School.
You can receive custom delivery of all of Mr. Kostohryz's published work on Seeking Alpha, The Street, and other media, as well as exclusive material, by following the link below. It is absolutely free:
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I only look at stocks that have the possibility to double over a twelve month period and stocks in which the risk/reward ratio payout is high. In addition I focus on swing trade opportunities.
I focus more on valuations and risk/reward metrics as opposed to what make companies tick.
I have been a professional investor for over 20 years and during the past several years an economics analyst and financial writer for capital.gr, the biggest economic news portal in Greece.
I have managed money from time to time and have also done some seed venture capital projects in the past.
Experienced Trader with over 10 years in equities, options, and futures strategies. Seeking to further advance the sharing of knowledge base, help educate, as well as continually improve strategies for investing.
TechCrunch (http://www.techcrunch.com/), founded on June 11, 2005, is a weblog dedicated to obsessively profiling and reviewing new Internet products and companies. In addition to covering new companies, we profile existing companies that are making an impact (commercial and/or cultural) on the new web space. TechCrunch is co-edited by Michael Arrington and Erick Schonfeld.
I use market analysis and emerging trends to identify investing opportunities at the macro level - I look for the "big idea" and the company's best positioned to execute.
My career includes stints as as a price and wage economist in Washington DC; a market analyst for a consumer packaged goods behemoth; a market strategist for an ad agency; director of Internet research for a MR firm and communications director for an urban school district.
In between these more traditional gigs, I've also worked as head writer for a syndicated comedy show and hosted an afternoon radio program in Cincinnati.
BA, economics and computer science, University of Maryland
MBA, marketing management and quantitative methods, Georgia Institute of Technology.
I currently work as a freelance writer and consultant with my business partner, a 2 y/o green cheeked conure named Hambone.
I am a market enthusiast and part-time trader. I started writing for Seeking Alpha in 2011, and it has been a tremendous opportunity and learning experience. I have been interested in the markets since elementary school, and hope to pursue a career in the investment management industry. I have been active in the markets for several years, and am primarily focused on long/short equities.
I hold a Bachelor of Science Degree from Lehigh University, where I double majored in Finance and Accounting, with a minor in History. My major track focused on Investments and Financial Analysis. While at Lehigh, I was the Head Portfolio Manager of the Investment Management Group, a student group that manages three portfolios, one long/short and two long only. I have had two internships, one a summer internship at a large bank, and another helping to manage the Lehigh University Endowment for nearly a year.
Disclaimer: Bill reminds investors to always due their own due diligence on any investment, and to consult their own financial adviser or representative when necessary. Any material provided is intended as general information only, and should not be considered or relied upon as a formal investment recommendation.
Philstockworld.com is the fastest growing stock and option newsletter on the Web. "High Finance for Real People - Fun and Profits" is our motto and our Basic and Premium Chat Sessions offer readers a chance to speak to Phil live during the trading day as well as authors like Optrader, Sabrient, Income Trader and Trend Trader - who send out Alerts during the market sessions and discuss trade ideas live with Members.
We even have a new low-cost "Trend Watcher" Membership that lets readers view our chat sessions without directly participating a great solution for people who want to test-drive the site and profit from our experience! Trend Watchers get to view all of our Chat Archives, weekly Webinars - as well as the amazing PSW Wiki, which gives you Phil's recent opinions and trade ideas as well as technical and fundamental analysis of hundreds of stocks that we follow.
Philip R. Davis is a founder of Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com), a stock and options trading site that teaches the art of options trading to newcomers and devises advanced strategies for expert traders. Mr. Davis is a serial entrepreneur, having founded software company Accu-Title, a real estate title insurance software solution, and is also the President of the Delphi Consulting Corp., an M&A consulting firm that helps large and small companies obtain funding and close deals. He was also the founder of Accu-Search, a property data corporation that was sold to DataTrace in 2004 and Personality Plus, a precursor to eHarmony.com. Phil was a former editor of a UMass/Amherst humor magazine and it shows in his writing -- which is filled with colorful commentary along with very specific ideas on stock option purchases (Phil rarely holds actual stocks).
Visit: Phil's Stock World (www.philstockworld.com)
Todd E. Campbell, President & Founder
Follow my latest updates on Twitter: https://twitter.com/ebcapital
Mr. Campbell has been providing alpha generating independent equity research to professional money managers for nearly 15 years. In 2003, Mr. Campbell founded E.B. Capital Markets, LLC, an independent research firm serving professional money management firms. Mr. Campbell founded Gundalow Advisors, LLC, a State Registered Investment Advisor providing investment management services to institutions and high net worth clients in 2013. Today, some of the largest money management firms in the country trust the proprietary research developed by Mr. Campbell, including the Power 7 methodology featured in Mr. Campbell's book "Your Guide to Better Stock Picks: Tips from an Advisor's Advisor". Prior to founding E.B. Capital Markets, LLC, Mr. Campbell was Vice President and Partner of Alpha Equity Research, an independent equity research firm. At Alpha Equity Research, Mr. Campbell's responsibilities included institutional sales and client services. Mr. Campbell also developed new research and distribution products. Additionally, Mr. Campbell was responsible for Alpha’s individual brokerage business, providing investment services to high net worth families. In the past decade, Mr. Campbell’s articles have been featured in the Market Technician’s Association trade journal and his insights have been featured in various print and online financial publications, including Barron’s & SmartMoney. Mr. Campbell has also appeared on the financial news network, CNN/fn. Mr. Campbell is a graduate of the University of New Hampshire, where he studied English, Psychology and Business Administration with a focus on economics.
Selerity Research is a proprietary commentary & research service for financial professionals. Our team of highly experienced event analysts provide timely and relevant commentary and analysis on market-moving events related to everything from corporate earnings to key economic data announcements.
Helix Investment Research was founded in July 2011 by Ivan Deryugin, and focuses on leveraging secular global trends, across a variety of sectors, in order to generate long-term outperformance.
Saibus Research is an independent research firm that specializes in fundamental deep value research in public securities for fund managers and institutional investors. We don't sell reports, we sell expertise.
For real-time updates: @saibusresearch
Investor and now Investment Advisor at TA Capital with 35 years of investment experience beginning in 1980 during my college days at West Point. As a professional, I was a Financial Advisor / VP for almost 10 years from 1994 until 2003 at (Dean Witter) Morgan Stanley and Prudential Securities and I recently joined TA Capital having received my Series 65 in November 2015.
I earned my MBA from Kellogg at Northwestern University, expanding my investment knowledge and skills ... but nothing beats 'the school of hard knocks'. I have been focused on equity investing and experienced and suffered through all of the major and minor market corrections since 1980.
So, I have the intestinal fortitude and a very strong stomach for risk (volatility). Having read numerous articles on Seeking Alpha, I decided that my views can offer some value, especially since I put 'my money where my mouth is' with skin in the game just as I did as an investment professional. I have been particularly focused on options for the past 10 years and you can NEVER stop learning how to employ these tools.
I am typically a contrarian and longer-term investor and do not follow the hoard mentality. I am not a momentum player unless I can be extremely nimble with the 'trade'. I value the views of others, especially those with the credibilty, expertise and 'chops' for their analyses and prognostications.
But I do my own homework when it comes to the fundamentals - I adhere to the Caveat Emptor (Buyer Beware) concept.
Dr. W. Edward Olmstead (www.olmsteadoptions.com) currently serves as Chief Options Strategist at Olmstead Options Trading Strategies and is the author of "Options for the Beginner and Beyond," top-rated by customers on Amazon.com. From 2003 - 2007 he served as the original editor of The Options Professor, a popular newsletter on options trading and has consulted on short-term trading strategies with member company of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange.
Dr. Olmstead is Professor of Applied Mathematics in the McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Sciences at Northwestern University. He has taught courses that cover both the theory for options pricing and practical strategies for trading options. Dr. Olmstead has received several awards including an endowed chair for teaching excellence and has been praised by his colleagues as "the quintessential teacher in our midst."
Dana Blankenhorn http://www.danablankenhorn.com has been a business journalist since 1978, and a futurist all his life.He warned about the coming Houston oil collapse in 1979. He began making a living on the Internet in 1985. He launched the first e-commerce daily for CMP in 1994, warned of the coming dot-bomb at a-clue.com in 1997 and began covering the Internet of Things in 2003.Along the way he's written for a host of newspapers, magazines, news services and Web sites. Most recently he was at TheStreet.com, covering technology and investments. He still has time for freelance assignments. He lives in Atlanta.
I specialize in creating opportunities involving options strategies, particularly involving tech stocks. I am also very interested in retirement strategies and I believe everyone is capable of creating their dream retirement, regardless of income level. I have degrees in mathematics and physics from USC, a M.S. in Mathematics, and I currently reside in the florida keys where I teach math.
I am currently in the process of launching a options trading site called " The Options Masters", which will feature a daily newsletter. Please subscribe if you enjoy my articles!
I am a Portuguese independent trader, analyst and algorithmic trading expert, having worked for both sell side (brokerage) and buy side (fund management) institutions.
I've been trading professionally for about 20 years and also launched www.thinkfn.com in 2004. Thinkfn (Think Finance) carries thousands of educational articles on finance and the markets.
I trade futures, stocks from the long and short side, forex and options. I trade both discretionary and fully automated systems (Metatrader, Quantshare and others).
I can be reached at paulo.santosATthinkfn.com or followed on Twitter at twitter.com/ThinkFinance999
Over 15 years as an IT Consultant for a wide range of clients including Dell, Ingram Micro, BankAm South and FedEx Data Center. Specializes in technology, contrarian plays and global macro. My articles have appeared on Morningstar.com, IHIQS, Seeking Alpha, Yahoo! Finance, MarketWatch, EIN Newsdesk, Google Finance, Motley Fool, MSN Money, and AOL Daily Finance.
Kofi Bofah is a 2002 graduate of the University of North Carolina. After graduating from UNC, Bofah worked as a financial adviser with American Express. On Jan. 12, 2004, Kofi Bofah was to found Onyx Investments, Incorporated, in Chicago Loop. Onyx Investments offers fee-based financial advice, asset management, insurance brokerage, and tax planning services. Interested parties may visit the website www.onyxinvestments.com for more information about Onyx Investments.
Publisher of options newsletter TerrysTips.com since 2001.. Thirty years experience trading options virtually every day. including stint as seat holder and market maker on the C.B.O.E. MBA from Harvard Business School and DBA from Univ. of Virginia Darden School. Author of Making 36%: Duffer's Guide to Breaking Par in the Market Every Year, In Good Years and Bad (4th revision - 2012) and Coffee Can Investing: A Better Idea Than Mutual Funds in an IRA or 401(K), 2014.
TerrysTips.com is a newsletter that carries out eight different option portfolios which many subscribers mirror on their own or through auto-trade at several brokers who make all the same trades in individual customer accounts. Each portfolio offers something different (bullish, neutral, or bearish),and different underlyings (GOOG, SPY, SVXY, and other individual companies).
In 2005, the S.E.C. brought an action against Terry Allen, claiming that he was managing money for people without being a registered investment advisor because of the auto-trade service offered by several brokers who placed trades in their customer accounts based on Terry’s Tips newsletter recommendations. A second complaint was for a single statement on his website that they believed was incorrect and therefore fraudulent.
Although two large law firms assured Dr. Allen that if he went to court on the first issue, he would win because there was a Supreme Court decision stating that investment newsletters are exempt from registration requirements - it would be a violation of their First Amendment rights. However, they estimated that his legal expenses would be greater than settling with the S.E.C. (and a year or two of his time tied up in court proceedings), and both firms recommended that he accept the settlement offer while not admitting any guilt.
The second issue (fraud) involved a single statement that was true when it was written but a couple of years later, option prices fell to 10-year lows, and it was no longer true. The S.E.C. argued that the statement was not removed from the website in a timely enough fashion.
For the past eight years since the settlement with the S.E.C., Dr. Allen has have been publishing the Terry’s Tips newsletter (and recommendations are executed in customer accounts at thinkorswim by TD Ameritrade through their Auto-Trade program), and the S.E.C. has not objected to any of his activities.
At Valuentum, we think the best opportunities arise from a complete understanding of all investing disciplines in order to identify the most attractive stocks at any given time. Valuentum therefore analyzes each stock across a wide spectrum of philosophies, from deep value through momentum investing. We think companies that are attractive from a number of investment perspectives--whether it be growth, value, momentum, etc.--have the greatest probability of capital appreciation and relative outperformance. The more investors that are interested in the stock for reasons based on their respective investment mandates, the more likely it will move higher.
Brian Nelson is the President of Equity Research at Valuentum Securities, an investment research firm serving individual and institutional investors, as well as financial advisors. Before founding Valuentum, Mr. Nelson worked as a director at Morningstar, where he was responsible for training and methodology development within the firm's equity and credit research department. Prior to that position, he served as a senior industrials securities analyst, covering aerospace, airlines, construction and environmental services companies. Before joining Morningstar in February 2006, Mr. Nelson worked for a small capitalization fund covering a variety of sectors for an aggressive growth investment management firm in Chicago. He holds a Bachelor's degree in finance and a minor in mathematics, magna cum laude, from Benedictine University. Mr. Nelson has an MBA from the University of Chicago Booth School of Business and also holds the Chartered Financial Analyst (CFA) designation.
Get to Know Brian:
Brian led the charge in developing Morningstar's issuer credit ratings, developing and rolling-out one of the firm's proprietary credit metrics, the Cash Flow Cushion. http://select.morningstar.com/welcome/credit/pdfs/Morningstar_CashFlowCushion.pdf
Brian is frequently quoted in the media and has been a frequent guest on Nightly Business Report, Bloomberg TV, and the Money Show.
Mr. Nelson is very experienced in valuing equities, developing Morningstar's discounted cash-flow model used to derive the fair value estimates for the company's entire equity coverage universe.
Brian worked on a small cap fund and a micro cap fund that were ranked within the top 10th percentile and top 1st percentile within the Small Cap Lipper Growth Universe, respectively, in 2005.
Mr. Nelson is also a contributor to Seeking Alpha and an opinion leader in the Industrial Goods space.
You can reach Brian at email@example.com.
Please read our Disclaimer that applies to all articles published on Seeking Alpha: http://www.valuentum.com/categories/20110613
Follow us on Twitter: @Valuentum
The writer is a long term value investor and M.Sc graduate in Financial Markets with over 10 years experience. Value can be found in both long and short ideas and uses options to enhance the risk-return profile of investment ideas.
Disclaimer: This article provides opinions and information, but does not contain recommendations or personal investment advice to any specific person for any particular purpose. Do your own research or obtain suitable personal advice.
I just joined Actinver, the biggest public Mexican-based Brokerage House, with AUM of over $18 billion.
I am currently a Portfolio Manager and will be glad to be asked anything about the Mexican or US market, as I am a passionate follower of both. If you want to diversify and invest in Mexican companies, feel free to contact me.
I started writing articles in May 2012, keep the feedback coming, I write about anything that interests me at the time, it can be academic, long & short ideas, I am now focusing on company valuations, feel free to suggest a company you would like valued.
Follow me on Twitter @respinosa6
John Petersen is executive vice president and chief financial officer of ePower Engine Systems, Inc., a company that has developed, built and demonstrated an engine-dominant diesel-electric hybrid drivetrain for long-haul heavy trucks that promises fuel savings of 25 to 35 percent depending on terrain and payload.
John is a lawyer and accountant with over three decades of corporate finance, due diligence, M&A advisory and related legal services for manufacturers, innovators and investors in the energy storage and renewable energy sectors.
Over the last eight years John has earned a global following for his articles on the energy storage and alternative energy sectors. He has contributed to AltEnergyStocks, Seeking Alpha, The Street, NASDAQ.com and Batteries International Magazine. He currently works as a senior editor at InvestorIntel.
John is a 1979 graduate of the Notre Dame Law School and a 1976 graduate of the W.P. Carey School of Business at Arizona State University. He was admitted to the bar in 1980 and licensed to practice as a CPA in 1981. John’s diverse experience in corporate finance, natural resource development and energy storage give him a unique and sometimes unsettling perspective on the technical, economic and supply chain challenges of the battery industry.
Peter Way Associates is the only known provider of the price range forecasts of widely-held, actively traded stocks derived from the hedging activities of market-making [MM] firms as they balance big-$-fund sellers and buyers in large block trades. The price ranges offer explicit downside exposure forecasts not commonly found in publicly published investment analyses.
This is all forward-looking data, based on what the MMs will pay for protection against coming unwanted price change while temporarily committed firm capital is exposed to market risks. It is available by modest subscription cost at blockdesk.com.
The behavioral analysis involved has been performed daily since Y2K, now on over 3,000 stocks, ETFs, and market indexes. That has built an actuarial history of how market prices have subsequently behaved following several million price range forecasts, issue by issue.
That data provides a qualitative backdrop to current forecasts in terms of odds of profitable positions, size of prospective gains, credibility of forecasts, and worst-case price drawdown exposure experiences.
Peter F. Way is a veteran Chartered Financial Analyst, having taken and passed the CFA Institute’s required 3 examinations in the first years they were given, 40+ years ago.
Armed with BS in Economics from the Wharton School and an MBA degree from Harvard Business School, he has managed staffs of dozens of Investment Researchers and Quantitative Analysts for the nation’s largest bank, arbitraged index options for NYSE Specialists, and managed portfolios of hundred-million-dollar equity investments for Fortune 100 corporate pension funds and non-profit endowments.
He has been elected President of professional Investment Analyst Societies in San Diego and New York City and has served on the editorial boards of the Financial Analysts Journal and the CFA Digest. He has spoken at numerous schools and professional meetings.