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  • Italian OTC Fish Oil Study Has No Bearing On Vascepa Outcomes [View instapost]
    Hey Adam- No NME eh? How in the world are you a biotech analyst when you don't understand THAT process? Isn't it reckless as a reporter to be so negligent as to report something that is completely false or something that you did not put the due diligence into? I am all about divergent views. I am ok w/ your view that fish oil is getting negative press and hence that market is shrinking. I may disagree w/ it but I won't publish false info or tout apples to orange comparisons for the sake of your argument. Be responsible.
    May 9 06:23 PM | 8 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Naysayers: Much Ado About Nothing [View article]
    Adam- "To date, FDA has not yet granted Vascepa NME." Has there ever been a company who has not had the NCE determination resolved that was granted NME in the interim? If there has, then u're right. If not, then you are calling for a new precedent...which means you're full of it. So let us know which it is.
    Jun 24 03:16 PM | 6 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    Assuming there are multiple interested parties and different valuations for the company w/ and w/o NCE, it is easy to see why there can not be a deal. Take for example:

    Bidder A
    With NCE- $34
    Without NCE - 23

    Bidder B
    With NCE- $38
    Without NCE - 21

    Bidder C
    With NCE- $31
    Without NCE - 28

    There is no way to properly structure this deal without knowing what the decision for NCE would be. So long as there isn't a single company with the highest bid for both w/ NCE and w/o NCE there can be no contingent deals. It would be a disservice to shareholders to not try to get the highest bid for each respective case.
    Jan 15 03:59 PM | 3 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing... [View instapost]
    Hey Steve- I agree completely on the off-label use and the fact that Anchor will take all of that market share. The issue I have is the common misconception that Lovaza's 1bil sales came all from the marine indication. I recall Joe Z mentioning the heavy off label usage of Lovaza also so there has to be some truth to it. In sum, all i'm saying is that the Lovaza's sales in the marine indication is less than their 1bil sales figure...

    If the reduce-it study came back positive with results even close to Jelis, V would become one of the biggest drugs of all time. I don't think we will ever see that day with the company as a stand alone company. Hopefully there are some contingent payouts associated with any buyout so that we can participate should Reduce-it prove positive.
    Apr 19 07:17 PM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    The cc sounded like a funeral? I'm not sure what you would expect them to say? The drug is gonna sell like gangbusters? lol If you are looking for words (which i could care less about) you should listen to the citi presentation the day before. You would have heard a lot of excitement. He claims this is the most excitement ever out of all of the drug launches his team has been involved in... not sure I buy that either but I think its silly to use their tone as a basis for your investment decision. The day before u'd have gone long then after the cc u'd sell? I can't disagree that there are plenty of risk. I just don't agree w/ using the "tone" as an indication of anything...
    Mar 2 08:09 AM | 2 Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Yet More New Developmetn Re; Amarin [View instapost]
    Hey where are you getting the $900 mm from? I saw on the latest 10k "The Company has combined Irish, UK, and Israeli net operating loss carryforwards of $315.6 million, which began to expire in 2011. In addition, the Company has available U.S. Federal tax credit carryforwards of $0.4 million and state tax credit carryforwards of $2.3 million. These carryforwards which will expire between 2029 and 2031 may be used to offset future taxable income, if any. "
    Aug 22 05:59 PM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Fish Oil: Looking Beyond Triglycerides [View instapost]
    Gary- I am surprised your docs would recommend that you go w/ a good ds when the out of pocket cost vs vascepa would actually be more for the ds (i'm assuming you are covered). If they wanted to see results first, they should tell you NOT to take the ds. Not very logical in my book. You either don't suggest any fish oil supplements or you go w/ the best- especially if its cheaper out of pocket to the patient.
    Apr 30 01:37 AM | 1 Like Like |Link to Comment
  • Scripts [View instapost]
    The monthly data is in there now. Also a very simple cash burn model added.
    Jun 13 02:13 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Today's Non-Move By FDA Tells Us One Thing... [View instapost]
    Good post. This is worth having a good discussion on. My understanding also is that a significant portion of Lovaza's sales are off-label in the Anchor indication. I do believe that some of the longs are overly bullish on Anchor and simplistically assuming that a market 10x the size should yield 10x the revenue. Obviously we know that is not true. Assuming your number for off- label use is correct at 50%, we are talking about peak 500mil in both Marine and Anchor using today’s Lovaza numbers. I think we can correctly assume that if marketed properly, market share should easily be taken in the marine indication from both Lovaza and Niaspan as V is clearly clinically superior. On the anchor side, ALL of the Lovaza usage should move over to V- I believe the health coverage providers rapid move to tier 2 for V indicates this.
    Simplistically and conservatively assuming V can get 1.5x Lovaza’s current take (assumes taking market share from Niaspan also) in the marine indication (500x1.5 = 750m) and also expand the usage in Anchor 2-3 fold (500m x 2 or 3= 1bil or 1.5bil) Lovaza’s current take. We arrive at peak sales at 1.75bil to 2.25 bil. This would be my lowball estimate since I believe Anchor could ultimately garner much more than 1.5 bil. With 2bil sales potential, I’d say the company is worth at least a 1.5-2.5x sales multiple. That would mean 3-5 bil. Still not bad….
    Apr 19 03:46 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin Q4 Call Leaves A Fishy Taste In My Mouth [View article]
    Hey Yourmama- Don't take what I wrote out of context. I'll quote " He claims this is the most excitement ever out of all of the drug launches his team has been involved in... not sure I buy that either" Do you just cherry pick what you read and quote so that you can take the context out of it?

    I'm not one to listen to a ceo of a company of on their calls. They will always be positive- even when the going is bad they have to spin it positively. What are they going to say? "our company sucks and we are going bankrupt?
    Mar 8 01:01 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    So, taking your view that another company will squirt the manufacturing process and come up w/ a better manufactured product, that means we should be looking out for the competition. Also it begs the question on whether purity actually played a role based on your comment. If it does, then I'm not sure u can top 96%. Lovaza did manage to stave of competition until AFTER two of their three patents expired. So it basically took quite a long time. Lets say they do it on the soon side this time, I think I saw that Amarin has a patent for the treatment of high trigs using highly purified EPA from 90(?) and up? I know it may not hold up in court but when i reviewed Lovaza's patents, I thought the same. Plus they have locked up quite a bit of the total supply. The bottom line here is that NCE doesn't really matter - kind of refuting your whole argument as generics only came AFTER 2/3 patents expired. It is the strength of their patents. Am I correct?
    Mar 6 11:53 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    I can agree w/ you here except that vascepa is NOT the same as Lovaza AND thats is why the patents were never in play. Amarin came up w/ pure epa version. What are they going to come up w/ next? 99.99%? I think that was covered w/ a patent. I will point to the krill as a possible candidate but my understanding is that the current technology is relatively far away (if you can point me in the direction that proves otherwise I would love to validate it)- extending beyond the nce 5-7 years. This makes nce a mute point. Right?
    Mar 6 11:52 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • Amarin's Descent To $5 [View article]
    I am not opposed to your negative view. My question with regard to your comments is how Lovaza managed to protect their product with their patents? Where those patents any different? Why were they not challenged? How are those patents the same or different from what Amarin has? I don't believe Lovaza's patents were composition patents either....thanks in advance for the response.
    Mar 6 05:11 PM | Likes Like |Link to Comment
  • The Price May Be Increasing For An Amarin Buyout [View article]
    I just read the article and this stuck out to me:

    As we previously discussed, in each of these decisions FDA articulated a structure-centric interpretation of “active moiety” (rather than an activity-based interpretation) under which a drug is classified as an NCE regardless of which portions of the active ingredient contribute to the overall therapeutic effect of the drug.

    My first take is that applying a structure based interpretation would argue for a non NCE status since EPA in combination w/ DHA is already approved. One of the arguments I have heard for a yes was that Vascepa had the unexpected activity of lowering LDL- but this would be an activity. I guess it all depends on whether they consider EPA alone to be of a different structure than EPA/DHA combined. Thoughts anyone?
    Jan 17 04:12 AM | Likes Like |Link to Comment