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  • Market Safe Havens Rapidly Dwindling  [View article]
    Think about it. Precious metals are making LOWER highs - even after these events. The commodities bubble has popped. Deflation is now threatening in a big way. Hard assets won't help in such trades...
    Sep 30 08:57 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Housing Prices: Bottom or Temporary Bear Break? [View article]
    To add to all the valid comments above:
    Most buyers looked at the bottom line on an after tax basis. The deduction on mortgage interest and other incidentals was the final kicker for greed.
    Sep 06 16:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • What the Homebuilders Are Telling Us [View article]
    While everyone here is probably right about the real estate market, they are probably wrong about (homebuilder) stocks. The two are not always correlated and the author raises some credible "technical" points about these sector stocks. As a longtime bear on homebuilders, I am betting on the stocks recovering despite their "property" values declining. At least for a substantial retracement - which is still worth the long trade.

    Food for thought!
    Aug 25 14:09 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Oil, Housing and the Dollar [View article]
    I don't confuse future performance of homebuilder stocks with real estate prices. They will perform with opposite results over - at least - the next year or so.
    RE.porter
    Aug 17 12:59 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • High End Joins Low End In Housing Crisis [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    I doubt that for a while. This is going to have a very prolonged trough even after the bottom in prices is found. That means seller pain must be amputated Merrill Lynch style.
    Jul 31 08:55 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Vonage Talks Financing, But No Deal Yet [View article]
    There is a bit of a misunderstanding in the URGENCY of consumating anything in this particular discussion withe this particular funding party. There is no such importance - and Vonage has had and may probably have further discussions with other parties as well. This was one of the best bear traps of any stock last year. I believe it will repeat that performance (deservedly or not) this year. I'm betting on it!
    Disclosure: I have had a long position in VG for the past year and have been building its size.
    Jun 18 17:02 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Brazil, UK Homebuilders Follow US Builders Down [Housing Tracker] [View article]
    Expanding credit is a RESULT of the slowing in sectors such as housing. The JPM opinion is only the tip of the iceberg. Even BRIC can have a bubble sooner - rather than later.
    Jun 14 10:25 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Beginning of Stabilization in Housing? [View article]
    Like any market, a bounce within a downtrend will deceive! If this is just another bounce, the "bull trap" will only prolong what NEEDS to happen before any hope of a bottom - PRICES STILL NEED TO FALL.
    Jun 14 10:19 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Encouraging News on Subprime Mortgage Delinquency Roll Rates [View article]
    Sorry but I don't see any justification to correlate your reasoning with your conclusions. While there's plenty of room for upside from here, it stands to reason that from where we've just been, that doesn't mean a thing! There's better proof that there is NO end in sight YET. More pain is coming... not important to know when YET.
    May 22 17:57 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Impending Mortgage Crisis: Part Two [View article]
    Price-to-rent in NYC is already correcting - just like the mid-80's! Believe it. Any borough outside Manhattan or NJ is tanking now. The job market on Wall St was the straw that broke the camel's back.
    May 03 18:50 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Why Did the Euro Fall Sharply Today? [View article]
    The key here for ALL anti-dollar proxies is the monetary policy shift by the Fed. That's what the market is telling us! The Fed has caught on and whatever help was available for financial institutions has been expended. They will pause here and shake out the anti-dollar proxies across all asset classes. That means US homebuilder stocks will take the next wave down - yet again. Among currencies, GBP will soften faster than the EUR due to cross sales.
    Apr 25 16:34 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • As Home Sales Plunge, Some Say the Crisis Is Almost Over [View article]
    The affordability and credit availability issues have got YEARS to go as a slow "bleed." If I had a nickel for every call that "it's almost over," I'd be able to buy a million dollar condo. Well... 750k now!
    Apr 25 12:21 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • The Reverse Ripple Theory of Metropolitan Home Price Corrections [View article]
    In what is probably the most resilient market - until now - this phenomenon seems representative of NYC and surrounding areas. The boroughs and NJ suburbs are getting hit much harder while Manhattan (an island) seems to be holding ground. The oncoming cuts on Wall Street however will pose some pain in the core of the city as well. What does that bode for the 'burbs! Not well I don't think.
    Apr 04 14:05 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Upside to Falling Prices: Housing Affordabilty Index Reaches 4-Year High [View article]
    Dr Perry, if we are discussing the Michigan market - where you live - affordability is probably true. But with all the Michigan jobs going out, when does that data point filter into the result? Also, mortgages can't be gotten as they were for the past four years. So I'm afraid this index is as credible as the NAR itself. But I see that there is no need to convince any readers here of that. What used to be a widely followed economic release has now been exposed as nothing more than a selling tool. Mr Yun has no job left! It's time for another entity to take over this data compilation. Maybe your institution?
    Mar 28 17:42 pm |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
  • Visa: Already Priced to Perfection [View article]
    Timing is everything - especially in IPOs.
    And the timing on this one will be wrong for shareholders who are hoping for the "next big one." Take your quick profit and move on.
    Mar 21 09:15 am |Rating: 0 0 |Link to Comment
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