vreporter

Buying Real Estate in the Aftermath of the 'Perfect Storm'

All I can say is...
Ummmm - NO CHANCE!

Deleveraging just doesn't work this way.

Housing Solution: Crashing Home Prices or Cheaper Mortgages?

AFFORDABILITY is misinterpreted and quoted out of context.
Affordability is an "immediate" status calculation with little regard for what may happen with the level PAST purchase date.
This assumption is based on funding (mortgage) rates being fixed after closing - acceptable.
This assumption then implies that the stable funding protects the valuation of the property in question - absolutely unacceptable.

Looking at it another way, AFFORDABILITY is what got us into the problem.

While current and future mortgage application requirements have/will increase, there is little protection for prices until prices adjust with inventory.

That balance is still grossly tipped in favor of falling prices.

Toll Brothers: Are They Serious?

Two points not discussed often enough about TOL:

1) There is relatively low available/tradeable float of the stock. Short squeezes are far more effective than momentum pressure in this issue.

2) The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) scrambles up the efficient market making in this stock as a volatility toy to play with, complementary to its sizable holdings of the stock.

Whether this creates an ally for Bob Toll without having to seek it, is an interesting point for the exchanges and the SEC to investigate the manipulation inherent. What are the odds of that happening?

We will be up another buck on Monday!

RE.porter

Low Interest Rates Fail to Boost Home Sales

petej,
You are undoubtedly part of the problem - given that answer. When that family of four loses their 20% equity, their intent is irrelevant and they end up with their furniture on the sidewalk. The comparison to day trading simply misses the point about the importance of valuation. Cost per sq ft has a long way further down to go regardless of interest rates. If you're a real estate broker, you need to think about your career restructuring!


On Dec 03 01:40 PM petej wrote:

> Someone who found their dream home, in their price range, in their
> favourite neighborhood who planned to stay in it for the next 10
> years might buy in this market. You're talking about housing speculation
> which for all intents and purposes is over, its back to basics.<br/>
>
> A family of 4 should not day trade on their housing search. Think
> of it this way, if the value temporarily goes down 100k then your
> property taxes should drop too. If you're in California you can
> then reset lower for the future due to Prop 13.

Bad News for Housing

Households don't just form because they NEED to. They have to be able to AFFORD to! All this demographic demand is nonsense. It will be sad to see married couples living with their parents!

Oil, Housing and the Dollar

I don't confuse future performance of homebuilder stocks with real estate prices. They will perform with opposite results over - at least - the next year or so.
RE.porter